Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are tipped to win, with a 54% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw, and 22% for Neuchatel Xamax. The match is expected to see about three goals, but the most probable total is two, with a 23% chance of that outcome. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5% probability, and that is the only scoreline to mention. Lausanne-Ouchy, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, average 2.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Xamax, on the road, average 1.08 scored and 1.85 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 6.5 (96.6%), Under 5.5 (91.5%), Home +2 handicap (91.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.9%) and Home over 0.5 goals (84.7%). Lausanne-Ouchy have remained unbeaten in their last five, drawing 1-1 with FC Winterthur, while Xamax have returned to form after two losses, beating FC Aarau 2-1.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win
56.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC win
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
2.13
1.07
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.59
1.30
2.23
1.15
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.63
1.80
1.47
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
1.20
2.20
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.50
2.10
1.10
1.08
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.5%
3-1
6.4%
3-0
5.9%
0-0
5.9%
1-2
5.5%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals ↓
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
4.3%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.5%
11%
5.5%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.9%
6.4%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.9%
3.1%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals (down), columns = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is 0.83 points better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is 0.33 goals better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is 1.00 goals better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or Draw
80.3%
Avg Implied -
56%
24%
20%
covers Stade Lausanne-Ouchy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or Neuchatel Xamax FC
76.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
24%
20%
covers Stade Lausanne-Ouchy + Neuchatel Xamax FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Neuchatel Xamax FC
43.7%
Avg Implied -
56%
24%
20%
covers Draw + Neuchatel Xamax FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5
Over
85.6%
Under
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5
Over
57.6%
Under
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 3.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so a minus line means Stade Lausanne-Ouchy give that many goals of a start and Neuchatel Xamax FC receive them. At -1, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy -2
16.3%
Draw -2
17.5%
Neuchatel Xamax FC +2
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy -1
33.8%
Draw -1
22.5%
Neuchatel Xamax FC +1
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy +1
80.3%
Draw +1
12.1%
Neuchatel Xamax FC -1
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy +2
92.4%
Draw +2
5.4%
Neuchatel Xamax FC -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
1.07
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.56
1.15
0.54
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.93
0.80
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.00
1.20
0.70
0.42
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
1.07
0.53
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.74
1.08
0.62
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.25
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.50
0.90
0.40
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ismael Gharbi21%
Alban Ajdini19%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Mischa Eberhard12%
Elies Mahmoud12%
Ibrahim Diakité10%
Liridon Mulaj10%
Mergim Qarri9%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Lucas Pos7%
Florian Danho7%
Giovani Bamba5%
Ryan Kadima4%
Sahmkou Camara4%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Linus Obexer33%
Ogou Akichi32%
Giovani Bamba32%
Dylan Ouedraogo31%
Valon Hamdiu28%
Lucas Pos25%
Mischa Eberhard25%
Ryan Kadima24%
Mergim Qarri24%
Elies Mahmoud22%
Florian Danho20%
Sahmkou Camara20%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed19%
Ismael Gharbi17%
Jeremy Vachoux16%
Lamine Gassama15%
Emmanuel Essiam14%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Romain Bayard10%
Alban Ajdini8%
Michael Heule8%
Nathan Garcia7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu3%
Dany Da Silva0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ismael Gharbi21%
Elies Mahmoud16%
Mergim Qarri15%
Lamine Gassama10%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Florian Danho7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Alban Ajdini6%
Ryan Kadima4%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed4%
Ogou Akichi3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Florian Danho33%
Alban Ajdini14%
Ismael Gharbi14%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Elies Mahmoud3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Ryan Kadima0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Mergim Qarri0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Yverdon Sport
SC Kriens
FC Winterthur
Étoile Carouge
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil
Stade Nyonnais