Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 2-0 win over Rapperswil, and will look to continue their momentum against the same opponent. However, Rapperswil have shown resilience, having scored an average of 1.69 goals per match away from home against similar-strength opponents.
This match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, but the model predicts a home win as the most likely result, with a 47% chance of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy taking the three points. The model's selection is the home win, with the away win and draw probabilities at 29% and 24% respectively.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have scored an average of 1.82 goals per match at home, while conceding 1.55. Rapperswil have conceded an average of 1.81 goals away from home against similar-strength opponents. The model also selects Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.7% probability, with a 2% edge.
Results analysis
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's win extends their unbeaten run to 6 matches, following a 2-0 victory over Rapperswil. The final score was a 2-0 win for the home team, which also secured a home win as the actual result. The model correctly picked Home win as its selection, with a pre-match probability of 47%. The model's call was correct.
The model's selection of Home win was the favourite, while the selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 85.7%. The most likely total goals was 3, with a probability of 22%. The most likely scores included 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2, each with a probability of 10.6%, 9.1% and 7.1% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win✓ Hit
46.7%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.42
Edge
-17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.45
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.57
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.98
Betfair
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Dafabet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
Rapperswil win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied 16.1% · @ 5.66
Edge
+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.01
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
1xBet
5.84
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
2.07
1.40
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.58
1.35
2.08
1.42
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.25
2.00
1.33
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapperswil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapperswil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.87
1.71
1.93
1.69
1.81
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
3.33
2.50
4.50
1.25
2.75
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.50
1.58
1.50
1.83
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
@ 1.10+1.6%
Under 1.5
14.3%
@ 5.85-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
Pinnacle
6.37
Marathonbet
5.55
Superbet
5.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.1%
@ 1.39-1.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
@ 2.73+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
888Sport
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.1%
@ 2.00-3.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
@ 1.73+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Betfair
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.2%
@ 1.52+5.8%
No
33.8%
@ 2.32-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
No
William Hil
2.40
888Sport
2.40
Betfair
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
1xBet
2.34
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 9.07+5.8%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.69+3.4%
1-2
7.1%@ 16.62+4.4%
2-2
6.7%@ 12.91+3.3%
2-0 ✓
6.2%@ 8.58+1.1%
3-1
5.8%@ 9.65+1.2%
1-0
5.6%@ 9.89+1.2%
0-0
4.5%@ 18.58+2.1%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals ↓
Rapperswil goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.2%
3.7%
1.8%
0.7%
1
5.6%
11%
7.1%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.2%
9.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.9%
5.8%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.9%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals (down), columns = Rapperswil goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is 1.67 points better than Rapperswil in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is 0.50 goals better than Rapperswil in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is 1.67 goals better than Rapperswil in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
1.07
0.73
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.62
1.17
0.67
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapperswil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapperswil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
1.14
0.93
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.17
2.00
2.50
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
1.00
0.67
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.73
0.92
0.75
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapperswil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapperswil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
0.57
1.00
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.17
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.25
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.75
0.58
0.83
1.08
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.7%
1.10
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
+1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ismael Gharbi21%
Alban Ajdini19%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Mischa Eberhard12%
Elies Mahmoud12%
Ibrahim Diakité10%
Liridon Mulaj10%
Mergim Qarri9%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Lucas Pos7%
Florian Danho7%
Giovani Bamba5%
Ryan Kadima4%
Sahmkou Camara4%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Linus Obexer33%
Ogou Akichi32%
Giovani Bamba32%
Dylan Ouedraogo31%
Valon Hamdiu28%
Lucas Pos25%
Mischa Eberhard25%
Ryan Kadima24%
Mergim Qarri24%
Elies Mahmoud22%
Florian Danho20%
Sahmkou Camara20%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed19%
Ismael Gharbi17%
Jeremy Vachoux16%
Lamine Gassama15%
Emmanuel Essiam14%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Romain Bayard10%
Alban Ajdini8%
Michael Heule8%
Nathan Garcia7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu3%
Dany Da Silva0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ismael Gharbi21%
Elies Mahmoud16%
Mergim Qarri15%
Lamine Gassama10%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Florian Danho7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Alban Ajdini6%
Ryan Kadima4%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed4%
Ogou Akichi3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Florian Danho33%
Alban Ajdini14%
Ismael Gharbi14%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Elies Mahmoud3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Ryan Kadima0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Mergim Qarri0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's squad is €2m more valuable than Rapperswil's (€6m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack is €1m more valuable than Rapperswil's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Rapperswil have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Rapperswil have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Yverdon Sport
SC Kriens
FC Winterthur
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Étoile Carouge
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900
Stade Nyonnais