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Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 15:00
Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
Vs
25%
24%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Stade Nyonnais will look to rebound from a recent 0-3 loss as they host FC Aarau, who arrive on a win. The model sees a 52% chance of an away victory, 24% for a home win and 24% for a draw, making an away win the favourite. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.1% probability. Stade Nyonnais averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.67 conceded at home against stronger opposition, while FC Aarau nets 2.2 and concedes 1.4 on the road against weaker teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Under 6.5 (95.7%), Under 5.5 (89.7%), Away +2 handicap (89.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (86.6%) and Away over 0.5 goals (85.3%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stade Nyonnais win
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau win
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L15L13L12L02L12L12L00D03L22DH·FC 01/05A·FC 08/05H·STA11/05A·RAP15/05A·STA24/07H·RAP31/07A·FC 07/08H·ÉTO21/08A·SC 28/08H·FC 01/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.670.871.470.401.87
vs Stronger (9)0.782.111.002.670.671.83
vs Similar (21)0.571.480.831.170.221.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W22D00D11D03L11D21W12L21W22DA·FC 11/05H·YVE15/05H·GRA18/05A·GRA21/05A·ÉTO24/07H·STA01/08H·STA07/08A·YVE23/08H·NEU28/08A·FC 31/08← Super LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.402.071.071.881.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.681.531.621.121.731.82
vs Weaker (11)2.451.182.671.002.201.40
Clean sheet %23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.9%
No
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-1
6.4%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
6.2%
0-0
4.8%
Stade Nyonnais goals ↓
FC Aarau goals →
01234
04.8%6.4%7.2%4.7%2.3%
14.0%11%9.5%6.2%3.0%
23.3%6.4%6.3%4.1%2.0%
31.5%2.8%2.8%1.8%0.9%
40.5%0.9%0.9%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stade Nyonnais goals (down), columns = FC Aarau goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
Stade Nyonnais is 1.00 points worse than FC Aarau in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
Stade Nyonnais is 0.67 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
Stade Nyonnais is 0.17 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stade Nyonnais or Draw
48.7%
Avg Implied -
25%
24%
51%
covers Stade Nyonnais + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais or FC Aarau
76.1%
Avg Implied -
25%
24%
51%
covers Stade Nyonnais + FC Aarau
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Aarau
75.2%
Avg Implied -
25%
24%
51%
covers Draw + FC Aarau
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 3.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Stade Nyonnais, so a minus line means Stade Nyonnais give that many goals of a start and FC Aarau receive them. At -1, Stade Nyonnais must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stade Nyonnais win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stade Nyonnais)
Stade Nyonnais -2
3.7%
Draw -2
7.2%
FC Aarau +2
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stade Nyonnais)
Stade Nyonnais -1
10.9%
Draw -1
13.9%
FC Aarau +1
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stade Nyonnais)
Stade Nyonnais +1
48.7%
Draw +1
21.1%
FC Aarau -1
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stade Nyonnais)
Stade Nyonnais +2
69.8%
Draw +2
15.8%
FC Aarau -2
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D15L01L11D01L01L01L00D01L12LH·FC 01/05A·FC 08/05H·STA11/05A·RAP15/05A·STA24/07H·RAP31/07A·FC 07/08H·ÉTO21/08A·SC 28/08H·FC 01/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.870.400.600.271.13
vs Stronger (9)0.441.110.671.000.331.17
vs Similar (21)0.290.760.330.500.221.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W00D11D00D10W10W02L00D20WA·FC 11/05H·YVE15/05H·GRA18/05A·GRA21/05A·ÉTO24/07H·STA01/08H·STA07/08A·YVE23/08H·NEU28/08A·FC 31/08← Super LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.701.000.431.000.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.890.740.750.381.001.00
vs Weaker (11)1.180.641.330.501.000.80
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D12L01L01L11D11D00D02L10WH·FC 01/05A·FC 08/05H·STA11/05A·RAP15/05A·STA24/07H·RAP31/07A·FC 07/08H·ÉTO21/08A·SC 28/08H·FC 01/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.800.470.870.130.73
vs Stronger (9)0.331.000.331.670.330.67
vs Similar (21)0.290.710.500.670.000.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L00D00D03L01L11D10W21W02LA·FC 11/05H·YVE15/05H·GRA18/05A·GRA21/05A·ÉTO24/07H·STA01/08H·STA07/08A·YVE23/08H·NEU28/08A·FC 31/08← Super LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.701.070.640.880.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.790.790.880.750.730.82
vs Weaker (11)1.270.551.330.501.200.60
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.5%-------
Under 6.595.1%-------
Away +2 handicap89.1%-------
Under 5.588.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals86.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals85.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals85.2%-------
Over 1.584.8%-------
Under 4.576.7%-------
Home or Away76.1%-------
Draw or Away75.2%-------
Away +1 handicap75.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals73.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Stade Nyonnais's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Aarau's (€3m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Stade Nyonnais and FC Aarau have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Stade Nyonnais and FC Aarau have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Stade Nyonnais's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Aarau's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
SN wins
2
Draws
5
FA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau · H/A from SN
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26AFC Aarau Vs SN2-1
08/05/26AFC Aarau Vs SN5-1
20/02/26HSN Vs FC Aarau1-1
22/11/25AFC Aarau Vs SN0-1
22/08/25HSN Vs FC Aarau4-5
23/05/25AFC Aarau Vs SN1-1
24/01/25HSN Vs FC Aarau1-2
25/10/24AFC Aarau Vs SN1-0

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/26HSN Vs FC Winterthur2-2
28/08/26ASC Kriens Vs SN3-0
21/08/26HSN Vs Étoile Carouge0-0
07/08/26AFC Aarau Vs SN2-1
31/07/26HSN Vs Rapperswil1-2
24/07/26AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs SN2-0
15/05/26ARapperswil Vs SN2-1
11/05/26HSN Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1-3
08/05/26AFC Aarau Vs SN5-1
01/05/26HSN Vs FC WIL 19000-1

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26AFC WIL 1900 Vs FA2-2
28/08/26HFA Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC2-1
23/08/26AYverdon Sport Vs FA2-1
07/08/26HFA Vs Stade Nyonnais2-1
01/08/26HFA Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1-1
24/07/26AÉtoile Carouge Vs FA3-0
21/05/26AGrasshoppers Vs FA1-1
18/05/26HFA Vs Grasshoppers0-0
15/05/26HFA Vs Yverdon Sport2-2
11/05/26AFC Vaduz Vs FA1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 0 Wins / 2 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD0.80
HomeLLLDD0.96
AwayLLLLL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%20%12%
AVG goals2.562.722.40
Over 1.5 %68%72%64%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %28%36%20%
Scored0.901.120.68
Conceded1.661.601.72
BTTS54%64%44%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWD1.94
HomeDDDWW2.12
AwayWDLLD1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%64%52%
AVG goals3.282.763.80
Over 1.5 %82%72%92%
Over 2.5 %68%52%84%
Over 3.5 %36%24%48%
Scored1.881.801.96
Conceded1.400.961.84
BTTS66%52%80%
Clean Sheet28%44%12%
Corners14.5011.0018.00
Cards6.677.006.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy614
67%
2.3
113+8
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.80.5
-
2Yverdon SportYverdon Sport612
50%
2.0
106+4
2.7
100%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.71.0
-
3SC KriensSC Kriens610
50%
1.7
106+4
2.7
100%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.71.0
-
4FC WinterthurFC Winterthur69
33%
1.5
127+5
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.01.2
-
5Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC69
50%
1.5
99+0
3.0
83%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.5
-
6Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge68
33%
1.3
66+0
2.0
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.01.0
-
7FC AarauFC Aarau68
33%
1.3
810-2
3.0
100%
83%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.31.7
-
8FC WIL 1900FC WIL 190065
17%
0.8
916-7
4.2
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.52.7
-
9RapperswilRapperswil64
17%
0.7
813-5
3.5
100%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1221.32.2
-
10Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais62
0%
0.3
411-7
2.5
83%
67%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.71.8
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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