Stade Nyonnais enter the match after a rough run, losing four of five games, while Neuchatel Xamax FC are on a three-game winning streak. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected total of 3.2 goals, most likely a 3-goal match. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.4% chance. The favourite result is a home win, with the home side’s 47% chance of victory, a 25% draw probability and a 28% chance of an away win. Stade Nyonnais average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Neuchatel Xamax FC average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded on the road against comparable teams. The model’s only suggested pick is Over 1.5, with an 83.6% probability. These figures paint a picture of an evenly matched, attack-heavy contest where the home side has a slight edge.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: Stade Nyonnais, the pre-match favourite, failed to deliver a home win, losing 0-2 to Neuchatel Xamax FC. The model had picked a home win with a 47% probability, but the call was wrong. Neuchatel Xamax, riding a run of three consecutive victories after two straight defeats, turned the tide and claimed the away win. The only other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit its mark, with an 83.6% probability. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away side’s triumph, leaving the model’s favourite on the wrong side of the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stade Nyonnais win✗ Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stade Nyonnais
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.62
1.70
1.30
1.09
1.91
vs Stronger (8)
1.88
1.88
2.67
1.33
1.40
2.20
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.46
1.29
1.29
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
19% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.63
1.40
1.40
1.27
1.87
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
1.80
1.75
1.25
1.17
2.17
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.55
1.27
1.45
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 3.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.4%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
6.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
5.2%
Stade Nyonnais goals ↓
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
4.7%
3.9%
1.7%
0.6%
1
6.6%
11%
7.0%
3.2%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.2%
5.7%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.9%
2.6%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stade Nyonnais goals (down), columns = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sion
2.19
FC Thun
2.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
FC Vaduz
1.36
FC WIL 1900
1.22
Stade Nyonnais
1.19
FC Aarau
1.19
Bellinzona
1.17
FC Schaffhausen
1.06
Baden
0.72
Stade Nyonnais is 0.17 points worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.03
FC Sion
2.00
FC Vaduz
1.86
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
FC Aarau
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.25
Bellinzona
1.08
FC Schaffhausen
1.00
Baden
0.86
Stade Nyonnais is 0.28 goals worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
0.64
FC Thun
1.06
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.25
Bellinzona
1.39
FC WIL 1900
1.44
FC Schaffhausen
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.53
Stade Nyonnais
1.61
FC Aarau
1.64
Baden
2.28
Stade Nyonnais is 0.36 goals worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stade Nyonnais
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.48
0.40
0.30
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.31
0.29
0.14
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.75
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.70
0.73
0.73
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stade Nyonnais
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.14
1.30
1.00
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
1.12
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.40
vs Similar (13)
0.77
1.15
1.00
1.14
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.67
0.73
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.85
0.55
0.73
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (28)
€30m
FT (25)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
SN (21)
€3m
Stade Nyonnais's squad is €2m less valuable than Neuchatel Xamax FC's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (10)
€15m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
Stade Nyonnais and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (6)
€6m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Stade Nyonnais and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (12)
€9m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Stade Nyonnais and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Sion
FC Thun
FC Vaduz
FC WIL 1900
FC Aarau
Bellinzona
FC Schaffhausen
Baden