The contest between Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The predicted probabilities are 30% for a home victory, 29% for a draw and 41% for an away triumph. On average the match should see 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.7% chance.
Stade Nyonnais, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include an 74.4% chance of Over 1.5 goals and a 73.7% chance of Under 3.5 goals, the latter being a miss. Recent form shows Nyonnais coming off a draw in a 2-2 tie with FC Winterthur, while Lausanne-Ouchy remains unbeaten in five games, winning 3-0 against Étoile Carouge. The prediction remains uncertain, but the edge lies with the away side.
Results analysis
The 1-3 away win for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy extended their unbeaten run, while Stade Nyonnais slipped back into a draw-heavy streak. The model had called an Away win with a 41% probability, and that prediction proved correct. Its Over 1.5 selection, at 74.4%, hit as the match produced four goals, whereas the Under 3.5 pick, at 73.7%, missed as the total exceeded three. The most likely score of 1-1 (13.7%) was not achieved, but the 0-1 and 1-2 possibilities were close. Overall, the model’s favourite and key selections performed well, confirming its balanced assessment of the teams’ recent form.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stade Nyonnais win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win✓ Hit
40.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stade Nyonnais
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.53
1.13
1.40
0.53
1.67
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
2.00
1.25
2.25
1.00
1.83
vs Similar (20)
0.70
1.30
1.09
1.09
0.22
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.40
2.00
1.40
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.52
1.37
2.00
1.31
1.07
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.3%
1-2
8.8%
0-0
8.7%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.4%
2-0
5.2%
Stade Nyonnais goals ↓
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
9.3%
7.4%
3.5%
1.2%
1
7.6%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.2%
7.4%
5.2%
2.4%
0.9%
3
2.1%
2.9%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stade Nyonnais goals (down), columns = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Vaduz
2.25
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
Rapperswil
1.22
Étoile Carouge
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Bellinzona
0.64
Stade Nyonnais is 0.61 points worse than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Vaduz
2.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
Étoile Carouge
1.28
Bellinzona
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Stade Nyonnais is 0.72 goals worse than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vaduz
1.14
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
Rapperswil
1.72
Bellinzona
2.14
Stade Nyonnais is 0.25 goals worse than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stade Nyonnais
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.60
0.73
0.27
0.11
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
1.00
0.80
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.63
1.08
0.69
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stade Nyonnais
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.20
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.00
0.25
1.25
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.70
0.36
0.82
0.11
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
1.00
0.60
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.74
0.92
0.62
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ismael Gharbi21%
Alban Ajdini19%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Mischa Eberhard12%
Elies Mahmoud12%
Ibrahim Diakité10%
Liridon Mulaj10%
Mergim Qarri9%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Lucas Pos7%
Florian Danho7%
Giovani Bamba5%
Ryan Kadima4%
Sahmkou Camara4%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Linus Obexer33%
Ogou Akichi32%
Giovani Bamba32%
Dylan Ouedraogo31%
Valon Hamdiu28%
Lucas Pos25%
Mischa Eberhard25%
Ryan Kadima24%
Mergim Qarri24%
Elies Mahmoud22%
Florian Danho20%
Sahmkou Camara20%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed19%
Ismael Gharbi17%
Jeremy Vachoux16%
Lamine Gassama15%
Emmanuel Essiam14%
Vitalie Damașcan12%
Romain Bayard10%
Alban Ajdini8%
Michael Heule8%
Nathan Garcia7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu3%
Dany Da Silva0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ismael Gharbi21%
Elies Mahmoud16%
Mergim Qarri15%
Lamine Gassama10%
Gabriel Kyeremateng8%
Florian Danho7%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Alban Ajdini6%
Ryan Kadima4%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed4%
Ogou Akichi3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Florian Danho33%
Alban Ajdini14%
Ismael Gharbi14%
Liridon Mulaj6%
Vitalie Damașcan6%
Elies Mahmoud3%
Dylan Ouedraogo0%
Abdallah Ali Mohamed0%
Lamine Gassama0%
Ogou Akichi0%
Jeremy Vachoux0%
Romain Bayard0%
Ryan Kadima0%
Dany Da Silva0%
Lucas Pos0%
Linus Obexer0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Charles Abi0%
Zachary Marvin Hadji0%
Lavdrim Hajrulahu0%
Giovani Bamba0%
Mergim Qarri0%
Nathan Garcia0%
Mischa Eberhard0%
Gabriel Kyeremateng0%
Emmanuel Essiam0%
Michael Heule0%
Ibrahim Diakité0%
Sahmkou Camara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Stade Nyonnais's squad is €3m less valuable than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
Stade Nyonnais's attack is €1m less valuable than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Stade Nyonnais and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Stade Nyonnais's defence is €1m less valuable than Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's (€1m vs €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Vaduz
FC Aarau
Yverdon Sport
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Rapperswil
Étoile Carouge
FC WIL 1900
Bellinzona