Stal Mielec vs Podbeskidzie Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026

Time: 15:00

Final 3-3

Stal Mielec

46%

26%

28%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Podbeskidzie

Poland: I Liga

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Stal Mielec is expected to emerge victorious in this Poland: I Liga encounter, with a predicted probability of 46% for a home win. The match is likely to be a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.1 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, although this is not the most probable outcome.

In recent form, Stal Mielec has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, while Podbeskidzie has been coming off a draw. At home, Stal Mielec has averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.42 conceded against similar opponents, while away, Podbeskidzie has averaged 0.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded against similar opponents.

The model's selection is a Home win, with a 46% probability, a Draw at 26%, and an Away win at 28%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals outcome, with an 82.2% probability, and an edge of 4%. The home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 28%.

Results analysis

Stal Mielec's unbeaten run in their last 5 games came to an end as they drew 3-3 with Podbeskidzie. The win extends their home form, but it's the away team who will take the positives from this match. The pre-match favourite, Home win, did not come through, as the model's call was incorrect. The model's selection, Home win, had a 46% probability of happening, but it was not to be. The model's selection of Home win was wrong. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 82.2% probability, but the most likely outcome of 2 goals was not the case. The most likely total goals was 2, with a 23% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stal Mielec win✗ Miss

46.0%

Avg Implied 42.7% · @ 2.13

Edge

+3.3%

Best 5 market prices

Unibet

2.30

Pinnacle

2.19

Betano

2.18

Dafabet

2.17

Superbet

2.17

Draw✓ Hit

25.6%

Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.44

Edge

-0.8%

Best 5 market prices

10Bet

3.60

Dafabet

3.60

Betfair

3.60

Bet365

3.60

Pinnacle

3.55

Podbeskidzie win✗ Miss

28.4%

Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 2.96

Edge

-2.4%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

3.20

Dafabet

3.05

1xBet

3.04

SBO

3.02

BetVictor

3.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Stal Mielec

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.4

Avg scored

2.1

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.53	1.63	1.86	1.43	1.25	1.81
vs Stronger (7)	1.29	2.00	2.00	2.00	0.75	2.00
vs Similar (22)	1.59	1.55	1.82	1.27	1.36	1.82
vs Weaker (1)	2.00	1.00	-	-	2.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	13% (-12pp vs league)

This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Podbeskidzie

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.8

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

2.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.73	1.83	0.86	1.29	0.62	2.31
vs Stronger (30)	0.73	1.83	0.86	1.29	0.62	2.31
vs Similar (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	13% (-12pp vs league)

This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

82.2%

@ 1.18+4.0%

Under 1.5

17.8%

@ 4.25-4.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.21

Pinnacle

1.20

10Bet

1.20

Bet365

1.20

888Sport

1.20

Under

Pinnacle

4.56

Betfair

4.50

BetVictor

4.33

Bet365

4.33

1xBet

4.25

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

59.2%

@ 1.64+2.5%

Under 2.5

40.8%

@ 2.15-2.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.67

Pinnacle

1.67

10Bet

1.65

888Sport

1.65

BetVictor

1.63

Under

Pinnacle

2.24

Betano

2.20

Betfair

2.20

10Bet

2.15

Superbet

2.15

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

36.8%

@ 2.56+0.7%

Under 3.5

63.2%

@ 1.45-0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.62

10Bet

2.60

BetVictor

2.60

Betfair

2.60

888Sport

2.60

Under

Pinnacle

1.50

Betano

1.50

Superbet

1.46

10Bet

1.45

Bet365

1.44

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

61.7%

@ 1.53+1.4%

38.3%

@ 2.32-1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.57

Betfair

1.57

Superbet

1.55

10Bet

1.53

BetVictor

1.53

William Hil

2.40

888Sport

2.40

Betano

2.37

1xBet

2.36

Marathonbet

2.32

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

11.8%@ 6.44+4.9%

2-1

9.3%@ 8.11+3.8%

1-2

7.2%@ 9.67+2.5%

2-0

7.0%@ 11.12+3.0%

1-0

7.0%@ 9.05+2.1%

2-2

6.2%@ 10.91+2.1%

0-0

5.7%@ 12.53+2.1%

3-1

5.4%@ 14.31+2.3%

Stal Mielec goals ↓

	Podbeskidzie goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	5.1%	4.1%	1.8%	0.6%
1	7.0%	12%	7.2%	3.2%	1.1%
2	7.0%	9.3%	6.2%	2.8%	0.9%
3	4.1%	5.4%	3.6%	1.6%	0.5%
4	1.8%	2.4%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stal Mielec goals (down), columns = Podbeskidzie goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Lechia Gdansk

1.96

Arka Gdynia

1.58

ŁKS Łódź

1.57

Ruch Chorzów

1.56

Chrobry Głogów

1.56

Miedz Legnica

1.53

Polonia Warszawa

1.51

Nieciecza

1.44

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.44

Polonia Bytom

1.38

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.32

Odra Opole

1.29

Stal Rzeszów

1.26

Pogoń Siedlce

1.06

Stal Mielec

1.06

Unia Skierniewice

0.82

Podbeskidzie

0.77

Warta Poznań

0.70

Stal Mielec is 0.29 points better than Podbeskidzie in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 0.77).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Lechia Gdansk

2.14

Arka Gdynia

1.72

Polonia Bytom

1.65

ŁKS Łódź

1.63

Ruch Chorzów

1.59

Nieciecza

1.58

Polonia Warszawa

1.54

Miedz Legnica

1.53

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.50

Stal Mielec

1.50

Stal Rzeszów

1.44

Chrobry Głogów

1.39

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.32

Odra Opole

1.00

Pogoń Siedlce

0.97

Unia Skierniewice

0.90

Podbeskidzie

0.84

Warta Poznań

0.76

Stal Mielec is 0.66 goals better than Podbeskidzie in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.84).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Lechia Gdansk

1.04

Chrobry Głogów

1.08

Odra Opole

1.18

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.18

Pogoń Siedlce

1.26

Arka Gdynia

1.29

Ruch Chorzów

1.35

ŁKS Łódź

1.40

Nieciecza

1.41

Polonia Bytom

1.47

Polonia Warszawa

1.49

Miedz Legnica

1.56

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.59

Stal Rzeszów

1.76

Stal Mielec

1.82

Unia Skierniewice

2.46

Podbeskidzie

2.64

Warta Poznań

2.92

Stal Mielec is 0.81 goals better than Podbeskidzie in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 2.64).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	82.2%	1.18	Betano 1.21	Pinnacle 1.20	10Bet 1.20	Bet365 1.20	888Sport 1.20	+4.0%	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (27)

€26m

AG (29)

€9m

NIE (25)

€6m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (12)

€18m

AG (9)

€3m

NIE (10)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (1)

€4m

AG (8)

€4m

NIE (7)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LG (14)

€5m

AG (12)

€3m

NIE (8)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Stal Mielec vs Podbeskidzie · H/A from SM

Date	H/A	Game	Score
No games.

Stal Mielec

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
26/07/26	A	Unia Skierniewice Vs SM	1-2
24/05/26	H	SM Vs Polonia Bytom	4-1
15/05/26	A	Pogoń Siedlce Vs SM	1-3
09/05/26	H	SM Vs Puszcza Niepołomice	1-1
02/05/26	A	Miedz Legnica Vs SM	1-0
25/04/26	H	SM Vs Slask Wroclaw	2-3
17/04/26	A	Chrobry Głogów Vs SM	2-1
11/04/26	H	SM Vs Stal Rzeszów	3-1
06/04/26	A	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Vs SM	1-2
22/03/26	H	SM Vs Wieczysta Kraków	3-1

Podbeskidzie

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
27/07/26	A	Miedz Legnica Vs POD	1-1
26/05/24	A	Motor Lublin Vs POD	2-1
20/05/24	H	POD Vs Chrobry Głogów	0-1
13/05/24	A	Miedz Legnica Vs POD	6-1
03/05/24	H	POD Vs Arka Gdynia	0-0
26/04/24	A	Wisla Krakow Vs POD	3-1
23/04/24	H	POD Vs Tychy 71	0-2
19/04/24	A	Stal Rzeszów Vs POD	2-2
14/04/24	H	POD Vs Polonia Warszawa	1-2
05/04/24	A	Górnik Łęczna Vs POD	2-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Stal Mielec

Poland: I Liga

Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LDWWW	1.02
Home	WWLDW	1.00
Away	WLLWW	1.04

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	26%	24%	28%
AVG goals	3.34	3.04	3.64
Over 1.5 %	90%	88%	92%
Over 2.5 %	72%	72%	72%
Over 3.5 %	44%	40%	48%
Scored	1.46	1.40	1.52
Conceded	1.88	1.64	2.12
BTTS	76%	76%	76%
Clean Sheet	10%	12%	8%
Corners	10.53	10.25	10.86
Cards	4.07	4.29	3.86

Podbeskidzie

Poland: I Liga

Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DLLLD	0.90
Home	WLLDL	1.25
Away	DLLLD	0.58

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	18%	29%	8%
AVG goals	2.78	2.79	2.77
Over 1.5 %	78%	79%	77%
Over 2.5 %	56%	58%	54%
Over 3.5 %	26%	25%	27%
Scored	1.14	1.46	0.85
Conceded	1.64	1.33	1.92
BTTS	58%	67%	50%
Clean Sheet	14%	17%	12%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	4	10	75%	2.5	6	1	+5	1.8	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.2	-
2	Stal Mielec	4	8	50%	2.0	11	7	+4	4.5	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	1.8	-
3	Chrobry Głogów	4	7	50%	1.8	8	4	+4	3.0	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	-
4	Miedz Legnica	4	7	50%	1.8	6	2	+4	2.0	75%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.5	-
5	Polonia Warszawa	4	7	50%	1.8	5	3	+2	2.0	50%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	0.8	-
6	ŁKS Łódź	4	7	50%	1.8	6	5	+1	2.8	100%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	-
7	Arka Gdynia	3	6	67%	2.0	5	2	+3	2.3	67%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	9	3	4	3	1.7	0.7	-
8	Warta Poznań	4	6	50%	1.5	9	8	+1	4.2	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	2.0	-
9	Nieciecza	4	6	50%	1.5	6	5	+1	2.8	100%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	2	2	2	1.5	1.2	-
10	Odra Opole	4	6	50%	1.5	5	5	+0	2.5	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
11	Pogoń Siedlce	4	5	25%	1.2	5	5	+0	2.5	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
12	Podbeskidzie	4	4	0%	1.0	7	7	+0	3.5	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.8	-
13	Polonia Bytom	4	4	25%	1.0	9	12	-3	5.2	100%	100%	75%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	3.0	-
14	Ruch Chorzów	4	4	25%	1.0	2	5	-3	1.8	75%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	1.2	-
15	Puszcza Niepołomice	3	3	33%	1.0	3	3	+0	2.0	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
16	Unia Skierniewice	4	3	25%	0.8	4	8	-4	3.0	100%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	-
17	Stal Rzeszów	4	2	0%	0.5	3	11	-8	3.5	100%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	2.8	-
18	Lechia Gdansk	4	1	0%	0.2	2	9	-7	2.8	75%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	26	18	4	5	0.5	2.2	-

Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

← all matches

Stal Mielec vs Podbeskidzie Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Stal Mielec

Podbeskidzie

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Stal Mielec

Podbeskidzie

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature