Stal Mielec and Stal Rzeszów face off in the Poland: I Liga on August 8th. The recent-form storyline is worth noting as Stal Mielec has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, drawing 3 and winning 2, while Stal Rzeszów has struggled, suffering 2 consecutive defeats.
The model favours a home win, with a probability of 55%. The expected total goals is 3.9, and the most likely score is 2-1, with a probability of 8.6%. Stal Mielec has averaged 1.85 goals scored and 1.62 conceded at home, while Stal Rzeszów has averaged 1.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5, with a probability of 91.1% and an 8% edge. Other suggested picks include Over 2.5 at 75.3% and BTTS Yes at 72.4%, both with an 11% edge. The home win percentage is 55%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 24%.
Results analysis
The unbeaten streak in their last 5 games came to an end for Stal Mielec, as they drew 1-1 with Stal Rzeszów. The win extends their run of unbeaten games against their opponents. The pre-match favourite, Stal Mielec, did not come through, as the model's selection, Home win, was wrong. The model had given Stal Mielec a 55% chance of winning. The suggested picks were a mixed bag, with Over 1.5 hitting and Over 2.5 missing, both selections had high probabilities at 91.1% and 75.3% respectively. BTTS Yes also hit, with a probability of 72.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stal Mielec win✗ Miss
55.3%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.57
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.61
Dafabet
1.61
888Sport
1.57
Draw✓ Hit
20.8%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.10
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.38
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
Stal Rzeszów win✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.56
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.83
Dafabet
4.70
1xBet
4.60
BetVictor
4.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stal Mielec
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.77
1.87
1.60
1.27
1.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.80
1.92
1.62
1.17
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.25
1.50
1.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Rzeszów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.90
1.07
1.80
1.67
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
1.00
3.50
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.81
1.08
1.54
1.69
2.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.1%
@ 1.12+8.4%
Under 1.5
8.9%
@ 5.37-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.79
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
75.3%
@ 1.44+11.2%
Under 2.5
24.7%
@ 2.57-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.48
Bet365
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.70
Unibet
2.65
10Bet
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.5%
@ 2.13+11.9%
Under 3.5
44.5%
@ 1.65-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Superbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Betano
1.65
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.4%
@ 1.50+11.0%
No
27.6%
@ 2.39-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
No
Unibet
2.48
1xBet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
888Sport
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.6%@ 7.40+2.5%
1-1 ✓
7.9%@ 7.95+2.3%
3-1
6.8%@ 10.42+2.5%
2-2
6.7%@ 11.58+2.8%
1-2
5.6%@ 13.60+2.3%
2-0
5.5%@ 9.09+0.6%
3-2
5.3%@ 15.87+2.5%
3-0
4.4%@ 12.09+0.7%
Stal Mielec goals ↓
Stal Rzeszów goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
2.3%
2.4%
1.2%
0.5%
1
3.9%
7.9%
5.6%
2.9%
1.1%
2
5.5%
8.6%
6.7%
3.5%
1.4%
3
4.4%
6.8%
5.3%
2.8%
1.1%
4
2.6%
4.1%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stal Mielec goals (down), columns = Stal Rzeszów goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Stal Mielec is 0.50 points better than Stal Rzeszów in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Stal Mielec is 1.17 goals better than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Stal Mielec is 0.17 goals worse than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stal Mielec
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
1.33
0.53
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.80
1.31
0.62
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Rzeszów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.53
0.53
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.58
0.46
0.38
1.00
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stal Mielec over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Mielec over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Mielec over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stal Mielec
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.53
1.07
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Rzeszów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.27
0.53
1.27
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
1.23
0.62
1.15
0.69
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stal Mielec over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Mielec over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Mielec over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
75.3%
1.44
Superbet
1.48
Bet365
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
+11.2%
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
72.4%
1.50
Superbet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
+11.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stal Mielec · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Piotr Wlazło34%
Ivan Cavaleiro33%
Ilia Shkurin20%
Łukasz Wolsztyński17%
Robert Dadok11%
Mateusz Matras10%
Matthew Guillaumier10%
Sergiy Krykun5%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz5%
Ravve Assayeg5%
Fryderyk Gerbowski5%
Marvin Senger4%
Krystian Getinger4%
Maciej Domański3%
Alvis Jaunzems3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Damian Kądzior0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Koki Hinokio0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Karol Knap0%
Bert Esselink0%
Adrian Bukowski0%
Dawid Tkacz0%
Jakub Mądrzyk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Karol Knap23%
Petros Bagalianis20%
Mateusz Matras19%
Marvin Senger19%
Ivan Cavaleiro17%
Matthew Guillaumier16%
Robert Dadok15%
Bert Esselink14%
Piotr Wlazło14%
Adrian Bukowski11%
Damian Kądzior10%
Ilia Shkurin10%
Łukasz Wolsztyński10%
Koki Hinokio10%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz10%
Alvis Jaunzems9%
Fryderyk Gerbowski9%
Krystian Getinger7%
Maciej Domański6%
Dawid Tkacz6%
Ravve Assayeg5%
Jakub Mądrzyk3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Sergiy Krykun0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Cavaleiro33%
Matthew Guillaumier13%
Krystian Getinger11%
Adrian Bukowski11%
Ilia Shkurin10%
Łukasz Wolsztyński10%
Karol Knap8%
Robert Dadok7%
Maciej Domański6%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz5%
Mateusz Matras3%
Alvis Jaunzems3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Damian Kądzior0%
Piotr Wlazło0%
Sergiy Krykun0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Marvin Senger0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Koki Hinokio0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Ravve Assayeg0%
Fryderyk Gerbowski0%
Bert Esselink0%
Dawid Tkacz0%
Jakub Mądrzyk0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ilia Shkurin25%
Łukasz Wolsztyński13%
Sergiy Krykun11%
Piotr Wlazło10%
Matthew Guillaumier10%
Marvin Senger8%
Robert Dadok7%
Dawid Tkacz6%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz5%
Krystian Getinger4%
Alvis Jaunzems3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Damian Kądzior0%
Ivan Cavaleiro0%
Mateusz Matras0%
Maciej Domański0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Koki Hinokio0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Ravve Assayeg0%
Fryderyk Gerbowski0%
Karol Knap0%
Bert Esselink0%
Adrian Bukowski0%
Jakub Mądrzyk0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Stal Mielec's squad is €1m less valuable than Stal Rzeszów's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Stal Mielec and Stal Rzeszów have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Stal Mielec and Stal Rzeszów have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Stal Mielec and Stal Rzeszów have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
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Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
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