Stal Rzeszów’s home form is struggling against stronger opponents, averaging a single goal scored and conceding 3.5, while Lechia Gdańsk arrives on a two-game winning streak away, netting twice on average and keeping two goals against weaker teams. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.9 goals and the most likely total over six. The single most probable score is 1-2 for Lechia, with an 8.8% chance. The favoured result is an away win, with a 60% probability, while home and draw chances each sit at 20%.
The model’s selections are: Under 7.5 goals 95.3%, Home under 3.5 goals94.2%, Away over 0.5 goals91.8%, Away +2 handicap91.1%, Over 1.5 goals 91.1%, Under 6.5 goals 89.6%, Home under 2.5 goals82.5%, and Home or Away80.2%. The match is poised for a decisive Lechia victory, with both teams likely to score, but the home side’s defensive frailties suggest a challenging night for Stal.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stal Rzeszów win
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk win
59.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stal Rzeszów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.83
1.07
1.79
1.44
1.88
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
1.00
3.50
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.88
0.91
1.64
1.46
2.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lechia Gdansk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.73
1.75
1.62
1.64
1.86
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
1.40
1.67
1.33
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.80
1.80
2.20
1.60
1.40
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.80
0.33
2.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.1%
Under 1.5
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.2%
Under 2.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.4%
Under 3.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.8%
No
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.8%
1-1
7.7%
1-3
7.3%
2-2
6.3%
0-2
6.1%
2-3
5.3%
2-1
5.1%
0-3
5.0%
Stal Rzeszów goals ↓
Lechia Gdansk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
4.2%
6.1%
5.0%
3.1%
1
2.1%
7.7%
8.8%
7.3%
4.5%
2
2.0%
5.1%
6.3%
5.3%
3.3%
3
1.0%
2.4%
3.0%
2.5%
1.6%
4
0.4%
0.9%
1.1%
0.9%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stal Rzeszów goals (down), columns = Lechia Gdansk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Stal Rzeszów is 0.33 points worse than Lechia Gdansk in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Stal Rzeszów is 0.50 goals worse than Lechia Gdansk in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Stal Rzeszów is 0.17 goals worse than Lechia Gdansk in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stal Rzeszów or Draw
40.3%
Avg Implied -
20%
20%
60%
covers Stal Rzeszów + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów or Lechia Gdansk
80.1%
Avg Implied -
20%
20%
60%
covers Stal Rzeszów + Lechia Gdansk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
79.6%
Avg Implied -
20%
20%
60%
covers Draw + Lechia Gdansk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5
Over
91.7%
Under
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 3.5
Over
24.1%
Under
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stal Rzeszów, so a minus line means Stal Rzeszów give that many goals of a start and Lechia Gdansk receive them. At -1, Stal Rzeszów must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stal Rzeszów win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stal Rzeszów)
Stal Rzeszów -2
3.2%
Draw -2
5.9%
Lechia Gdansk +2
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stal Rzeszów)
Stal Rzeszów -1
9.1%
Draw -1
11.3%
Lechia Gdansk +1
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stal Rzeszów)
Stal Rzeszów +1
40.3%
Draw +1
20.1%
Lechia Gdansk -1
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stal Rzeszów)
Stal Rzeszów +2
60.3%
Draw +2
17.5%
Lechia Gdansk -2
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stal Rzeszów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.43
0.64
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.58
0.36
0.55
0.77
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lechia Gdansk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.75
0.94
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.05
1.00
0.90
0.30
1.20
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stal Rzeszów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.23
0.64
1.14
0.81
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
1.29
0.55
1.09
0.69
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lechia Gdansk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.77
1.00
0.69
1.21
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.15
0.75
1.20
0.70
1.10
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.67
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lechia Gdansk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tomáš Bobček47%
Ivan Zhelyzko23%
Rifet Kapić16%
Dawid Kurminowski13%
Camilo Mena13%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Mohamed Awadalla12%
Bogdan Viunnyk12%
Tomasz Neugebauer9%
Bujar Pllana6%
Matej Rodin4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Matúš Vojtko3%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Elias Olsson0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miłosz Kałahur33%
Ivan Zhelyzko30%
Rifet Kapić25%
Elias Olsson25%
Mohamed Awadalla25%
Bujar Pllana24%
Camilo Mena19%
Matúš Vojtko19%
Tomasz Neugebauer19%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Maksym Diachuk15%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Matej Rodin12%
Tomasz Wójtowicz9%
Dawid Kurminowski9%
Alex Paulsen8%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Bartłomiej Kłudka6%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Camilo Mena23%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Aleksandar Ćirković17%
Ivan Zhelyzko17%
Anton Tsarenko14%
Elias Olsson12%
Matej Rodin12%
Alvis Jaunzems11%
Matúš Vojtko10%
Rifet Kapić9%
Kacper Sezonienko6%
Tomasz Neugebauer6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Bogdan Viunnyk0%
Bujar Pllana0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tomáš Bobček57%
Aleksandar Ćirković21%
Camilo Mena13%
Ivan Zhelyzko10%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Matej Rodin8%
Bujar Pllana6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Matúš Vojtko0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Rifet Kapić0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Maksym Diachuk0%
Elias Olsson0%
Kacper Sezonienko0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Neugebauer0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's squad is €19m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€3m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's attack is €13m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€1m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's midfield is €5m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€0m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's defence is €1m less valuable than Lechia Gdansk's (€1m vs €3m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie