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Stal Rzeszów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Result & Analysis

Date: 01/12/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-0
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Vs
34%
24%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stal Rzeszów win✓ Hit
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win✗ Miss
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W12L01L32W32W14L12L11D21W21WH·ZNI13/09A·ODR19/09H·KOR23/09H·STA27/09A·POL03/10H·ŁKS18/10A·WIS26/10H·POG02/11A·WIE08/11H·TYC22/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.931.251.751.002.14
vs Stronger (4)0.751.750.002.001.501.50
vs Similar (26)1.191.961.431.710.922.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D21W01L30W21W22D32W21W21W22DH·GÓR14/09A·STA19/09H·LEC24/09H·ŁKS29/09A·POG04/10H·RUC17/10A·WIE27/10H·ODR03/11A·TYC09/11H·SLA21/11
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.851.402.181.181.441.67
vs Stronger (4)1.501.750.501.002.502.50
vs Similar (16)1.941.312.561.221.141.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.3%
Under 2.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.6%
Under 3.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.5%
No
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
5.2%
0-1
4.8%
2-3
4.3%
Stal Rzeszów goals ↓
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals →
01234
04.1%4.8%5.2%3.2%1.4%
14.2%10%8.5%5.2%2.4%
24.2%7.7%7.0%4.3%1.9%
32.3%4.2%3.8%2.3%1.1%
40.9%1.7%1.6%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stal Rzeszów goals (down), columns = Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Wisla Krakow
2.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.79
Wieczysta Kraków
1.75
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Znicz Pruszków
0.82
Górnik Łęczna
0.79
Tychy 71
0.68
Stal Rzeszów is 0.06 points worse than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.32).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
2.18
Wieczysta Kraków
2.08
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Stal Mielec
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Znicz Pruszków
1.18
Tychy 71
1.18
Górnik Łęczna
1.15
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Stal Rzeszów is 0.06 goals worse than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Wisla Krakow
0.88
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków
1.39
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.42
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Stal Mielec
1.82
Górnik Łęczna
1.82
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Tychy 71
2.18
Stal Rzeszów is 0.18 goals worse than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L00D10W20W03L01L00D00D11DH·ZNI13/09A·ODR19/09H·KOR23/09H·STA27/09A·POL03/10H·ŁKS18/10A·WIS26/10H·POG02/11A·WIE08/11H·TYC22/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.500.940.430.93
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (26)0.540.960.570.930.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D00D20W21W11D12L11D21W12LH·GÓR14/09A·STA19/09H·LEC24/09H·ŁKS29/09A·POG04/10H·RUC17/10A·WIE27/10H·ODR03/11A·TYC09/11H·SLA21/11
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.951.180.641.001.33
vs Stronger (4)0.501.250.000.001.002.50
vs Similar (16)1.250.881.440.781.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L22D12L11D11D11D21W10WH·ZNI13/09A·ODR19/09H·KOR23/09H·STA27/09A·POL03/10H·ŁKS18/10A·WIS26/10H·POG02/11A·WIE08/11H·TYC22/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.750.810.571.21
vs Stronger (4)0.751.000.001.001.501.00
vs Similar (26)0.651.000.860.790.421.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W01L10W00D11D20W10W00D10WH·GÓR14/09A·STA19/09H·LEC24/09H·ŁKS29/09A·POG04/10H·RUC17/10A·WIE27/10H·ODR03/11A·TYC09/11H·SLA21/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.451.000.550.440.33
vs Stronger (4)1.000.500.501.001.500.00
vs Similar (16)0.690.441.110.440.140.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
SW (22)
€7m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
Stal Rzeszów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PW (13)
€3m
OO (8)
€2m
SW (5)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's attack is €1m more valuable than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's (€1m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
WK (3)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's midfield is €1m less valuable than Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's (€0m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
SW (8)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
Stal Rzeszów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SR wins
0
Draws
1
PGM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stal Rzeszów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · H/A from SR
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/25APogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Vs SR2-1

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25HSR Vs Tychy 712-1
08/11/25AWieczysta Kraków Vs SR1-2
02/11/25HSR Vs Pogoń Siedlce1-1
26/10/25AWisla Krakow Vs SR2-1
18/10/25HSR Vs ŁKS Łódź1-4
03/10/25APolonia Warszawa Vs SR2-3
27/09/25HSR Vs Stal Mielec3-2
23/09/25HSR Vs Korona Kielce0-1
19/09/25AOdra Opole Vs SR2-1
13/09/25HSR Vs Znicz Pruszków1-0

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/11/25HPGM Vs Slask Wroclaw2-2
09/11/25ATychy 71 Vs PGM1-2
03/11/25HPGM Vs Odra Opole2-1
27/10/25AWieczysta Kraków Vs PGM2-3
17/10/25HPGM Vs Ruch Chorzów2-2
04/10/25APogoń Siedlce Vs PGM1-2
29/09/25HPGM Vs ŁKS Łódź3-0
24/09/25HPGM Vs Lechia Gdansk0-1
19/09/25AStal Mielec Vs PGM1-2
14/09/25HPGM Vs Górnik Łęczna3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWW1.12
HomeLWLDW1.15
AwayWLWLW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%31%29%
AVG goals3.123.193.04
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %70%73%67%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.341.421.25
Conceded1.781.771.79
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet14%15%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWD1.65
HomeLWDWD1.82
AwayLWWWW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%45%44%
AVG goals3.253.363.11
Over 1.5 %90%91%89%
Over 2.5 %75%73%78%
Over 3.5 %35%45%22%
Scored1.852.181.44
Conceded1.401.181.67
BTTS75%73%78%
Clean Sheet10%18%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3371
61%
2.2
7229+43
3.1
88%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6252.20.9
-
2Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków3663
50%
1.8
7550+25
3.5
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5152.11.4
-
3Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw3359
48%
1.8
6647+19
3.4
94%
76%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2322.01.4
-
4Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3656
44%
1.6
5039+11
2.5
81%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.1
-
5ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź3555
43%
1.6
5749+8
3.0
86%
66%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.61.4
-
6Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów3453
41%
1.6
5446+8
2.9
88%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.61.4
-
7Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa3553
43%
1.5
5452+2
3.0
83%
60%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3021.51.5
-
8Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica3452
44%
1.5
5253-1
3.1
88%
65%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.6
-
9Puszcza NiepołomicePuszcza Niepołomice3449
35%
1.4
4540+5
2.5
82%
53%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.31.2
-
10Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom3447
38%
1.4
5650+6
3.1
85%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.5
-
11Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki3445
32%
1.3
5154-3
3.1
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.51.6
-
12Odra OpoleOdra Opole3444
32%
1.3
3440-6
2.2
76%
35%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.2
-
13Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3443
35%
1.3
4960-11
3.2
85%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.41.8
-
14Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce3436
26%
1.1
3343-10
2.2
74%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
15Stal MielecStal Mielec3436
29%
1.1
5162-11
3.3
91%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.8
-
16Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków3428
21%
0.8
4068-28
3.2
76%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
17Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3427
15%
0.8
3962-23
3.0
91%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
18Tychy 71Tychy 713423
15%
0.7
4074-34
3.4
79%
68%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
Poland: I Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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