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Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa Result & Analysis

Date: 17/04/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 0-2
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Vs
31%
26%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stal Rzeszów win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa win✓ Hit
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D31W14L01L12L11D32W01L13LA·SLA08/12A·CHR09/02H·POL15/02A·PUS22/02H·RUC27/02A·MIE07/03H·GÓR14/03A·ZNI20/03H·ODR06/04A·STA11/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.631.251.441.501.86
vs Stronger (3)1.002.000.003.001.501.50
vs Similar (27)1.411.591.331.331.501.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D52W00D32W21W01L23L11D12L04LA·TYC05/12H·STA08/02H·ZNI14/02A·RUC21/02A·WIE02/03H·ŁKS09/03A·POG14/03H·MIE21/03A·PUS06/04H·SLA10/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.501.291.641.621.38
vs Stronger (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Similar (26)1.501.651.231.771.771.54
vs Weaker (3)1.000.332.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.0%
Under 2.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-1
7.2%
0-2 ✓
6.8%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
Stal Rzeszów goals ↓
Polonia Warszawa goals →
01234
06.2%7.2%6.8%3.7%1.5%
15.8%12%9.1%4.9%2.0%
24.6%7.5%6.1%3.3%1.4%
32.1%3.4%2.7%1.5%0.6%
40.7%1.1%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stal Rzeszów goals (down), columns = Polonia Warszawa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Wisla Krakow
2.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.79
Wieczysta Kraków
1.75
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Znicz Pruszków
0.82
Górnik Łęczna
0.79
Tychy 71
0.68
Stal Rzeszów is 0.25 points worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.51).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
2.18
Wieczysta Kraków
2.08
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Stal Mielec
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Znicz Pruszków
1.18
Tychy 71
1.18
Górnik Łęczna
1.15
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Stal Rzeszów is 0.10 goals worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.54).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Wisla Krakow
0.88
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków
1.39
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.42
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Stal Mielec
1.82
Górnik Łęczna
1.82
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Tychy 71
2.18
Stal Rzeszów is 0.28 goals worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.49).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D20W00D00D00D00D31W00D12LA·SLA08/12A·CHR09/02H·POL15/02A·PUS22/02H·RUC27/02A·MIE07/03H·GÓR14/03A·ZNI20/03H·ODR06/04A·STA11/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.500.620.860.86
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.002.000.000.50
vs Similar (27)0.740.700.530.531.000.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D20W00D01L02L00D10W01LA·TYC05/12H·STA08/02H·ZNI14/02A·RUC21/02A·WIE02/03H·ŁKS09/03A·POG14/03H·MIE21/03A·PUS06/04H·SLA10/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.570.360.710.880.44
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.650.580.310.771.000.38
vs Weaker (3)0.330.331.000.000.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D11D14L01L12L11D01L01L01LA·SLA08/12A·CHR09/02H·POL15/02A·PUS22/02H·RUC27/02A·MIE07/03H·GÓR14/03A·ZNI20/03H·ODR06/04A·STA11/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.750.810.641.00
vs Stronger (3)1.001.000.001.001.501.00
vs Similar (27)0.670.890.800.800.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L42W00D12L21W00D21W11D02L03LA·TYC05/12H·STA08/02H·ZNI14/02A·RUC21/02A·WIE02/03H·ŁKS09/03A·POG14/03H·MIE21/03A·PUS06/04H·SLA10/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.930.930.930.750.94
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (26)0.851.080.921.000.771.15
vs Weaker (3)0.670.001.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stal Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
SW (22)
€7m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
Stal Rzeszów's squad is €2m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PW (13)
€3m
OO (8)
€2m
SW (5)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów's attack is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
WK (3)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Stal Rzeszów and Polonia Warszawa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
SW (8)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
Stal Rzeszów and Polonia Warszawa have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
SR wins
1
Draws
3
PW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa · H/A from SR
DateH/AGameScore
03/10/25APolonia Warszawa Vs SR2-3
10/05/25HSR Vs Polonia Warszawa1-2
04/11/24APolonia Warszawa Vs SR1-0
26/05/24HSR Vs Polonia Warszawa1-2
01/12/23APolonia Warszawa Vs SR2-2

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26AStal Mielec Vs SR3-1
06/04/26HSR Vs Odra Opole0-1
20/03/26AZnicz Pruszków Vs SR2-3
14/03/26HSR Vs Górnik Łęczna1-1
07/03/26AMiedz Legnica Vs SR2-1
27/02/26HSR Vs Ruch Chorzów0-1
22/02/26APuszcza Niepołomice Vs SR4-1
15/02/26HSR Vs Polonia Bytom3-1
09/02/26AChrobry Głogów Vs SR1-1
08/12/25ASlask Wroclaw Vs SR1-1

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/04/26HPW Vs Slask Wroclaw0-4
06/04/26APuszcza Niepołomice Vs PW2-1
21/03/26HPW Vs Miedz Legnica1-1
14/03/26APogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Vs PW3-2
09/03/26HPW Vs ŁKS Łódź0-1
02/03/26AWieczysta Kraków Vs PW1-2
21/02/26ARuch Chorzów Vs PW2-3
14/02/26HPW Vs Znicz Pruszków0-0
08/02/26HPW Vs Stal Mielec5-2
05/12/25ATychy 71 Vs PW1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLL1.04
HomeWWLDL1.20
AwayDLLWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.962.803.12
Over 1.5 %76%68%84%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.161.201.12
Conceded1.801.602.00
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.58
HomeWDLDL1.48
AwayDWWLL1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals2.842.882.80
Over 1.5 %80%72%88%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.521.441.60
Conceded1.321.441.20
BTTS70%60%80%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3371
61%
2.2
7229+43
3.1
88%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6252.20.9
-
2Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków3663
50%
1.8
7550+25
3.5
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5152.11.4
-
3Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw3359
48%
1.8
6647+19
3.4
94%
76%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2322.01.4
-
4Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3656
44%
1.6
5039+11
2.5
81%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.1
-
5ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź3555
43%
1.6
5749+8
3.0
86%
66%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.61.4
-
6Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów3453
41%
1.6
5446+8
2.9
88%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.61.4
-
7Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa3553
43%
1.5
5452+2
3.0
83%
60%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3021.51.5
-
8Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica3452
44%
1.5
5253-1
3.1
88%
65%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.6
-
9Puszcza NiepołomicePuszcza Niepołomice3449
35%
1.4
4540+5
2.5
82%
53%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.31.2
-
10Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom3447
38%
1.4
5650+6
3.1
85%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.5
-
11Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki3445
32%
1.3
5154-3
3.1
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.51.6
-
12Odra OpoleOdra Opole3444
32%
1.3
3440-6
2.2
76%
35%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.2
-
13Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3443
35%
1.3
4960-11
3.2
85%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.41.8
-
14Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce3436
26%
1.1
3343-10
2.2
74%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
15Stal MielecStal Mielec3436
29%
1.1
5162-11
3.3
91%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.8
-
16Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków3428
21%
0.8
4068-28
3.2
76%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
17Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3427
15%
0.8
3962-23
3.0
91%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
18Tychy 71Tychy 713423
15%
0.7
4074-34
3.4
79%
68%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
Poland: I Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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