Start’s recent victory over KFUM Oslo and their strong home form, averaging 2.17 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 48% chance of a home win, a 23% draw and a 29% away win, with the home side favoured. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to an open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.6% probability. Start’s home performance against similar opponents and KFUM Oslo’s away average of 1.57 scored and 2.0 conceded suggest a balanced contest. The model’s selection includes an 88.2% chance of Over 1.5 goals. The home win probability is 48%, the draw 23%, and the away win 29%. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 with an 88.2% chance.
Results analysis
The win extends Start’s recent run, coming off a 4-1 triumph over KFUM Oslo. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 48% probability, and that call proved correct as the final score was 3-2 in favour of Start. The model also selected Over 1.5 goals, a pick that hit with an 88.2% probability. The match delivered the most likely total of three goals, aligning with the model’s expectation. With the home side’s 2.17 average goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, the result matched the statistical narrative. Overall, the predictions were largely accurate, confirming the model’s assessment of the game’s outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Start win✓ Hit
47.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KFUM Oslo win✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Start
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.20
2.25
1.00
1.77
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.15
2.17
0.50
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (10)
3.20
1.20
2.80
1.40
3.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
32% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (KFUM Oslo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KFUM Oslo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.08
1.60
1.92
1.62
2.25
1.58
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
1.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.64
1.86
1.29
1.57
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
2.70
1.20
2.20
1.40
3.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
16% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Start) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.2%
Under 1.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.5%
Under 2.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.2%
Under 3.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.5%
No
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.9%
1-2
6.9%
3-1
6.0%
2-0
5.7%
1-0
4.7%
3-2 ✓
4.7%
Start goals ↓
KFUM Oslo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
1
4.7%
9.6%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
2
5.7%
8.9%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.8%
6.0%
4.7%
2.4%
1.0%
4
1.9%
3.0%
2.4%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Start goals (down), columns = KFUM Oslo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Brann
2.70
Stabaek
1.93
Start
1.74
KFUM Oslo
1.68
Kongsvinger
1.67
Sandnes ULF
1.52
Sogndal
1.43
Ranheim
1.43
Mjondalen
1.40
Fredrikstad
1.17
Raufoss
1.17
Bryne
1.17
Asane
1.07
Skeid
1.06
Grorud
0.67
Stjørdals-Blink
0.57
Arendal
0.00
Start is 0.06 points better than KFUM Oslo in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Brann
3.17
Stabaek
2.07
Start
2.03
KFUM Oslo
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Sandnes ULF
1.74
Ranheim
1.63
Fredrikstad
1.53
Skeid
1.47
Kongsvinger
1.42
Asane
1.40
Bryne
1.40
Mjondalen
1.30
Raufoss
1.17
Grorud
1.13
Stjørdals-Blink
1.00
Arendal
0.50
Start is 0.03 goals better than KFUM Oslo in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Brann
0.53
Stabaek
0.93
Kongsvinger
1.15
Start
1.26
Mjondalen
1.57
KFUM Oslo
1.61
Fredrikstad
1.70
Sandnes ULF
1.71
Skeid
1.72
Ranheim
1.73
Bryne
1.73
Sogndal
1.77
Raufoss
1.80
Asane
2.23
Grorud
2.30
Stjørdals-Blink
2.37
Arendal
4.00
Start is 0.35 goals better than KFUM Oslo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Start
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.44
1.17
0.50
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.17
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.50
1.60
0.80
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
64% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (KFUM Oslo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KFUM Oslo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.84
0.56
0.92
0.62
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.64
1.14
0.43
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.50
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Start) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Start over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Start over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Start over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KFUM Oslo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KFUM Oslo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KFUM Oslo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Start
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
0.76
1.08
0.50
1.15
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.77
1.17
0.33
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.70
1.20
0.60
2.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (KFUM Oslo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KFUM Oslo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.24
1.04
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.08
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.00
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
1.90
0.70
1.60
0.40
2.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Start) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Start over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Start over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Start over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KFUM Oslo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KFUM Oslo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KFUM Oslo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Start · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jesper Cornelius22%
Steve Mvoué18%
Hakon Lorentzen17%
Altin Ujkani17%
Deni Dashaev17%
Ousmane Diallo Toure12%
Erlend Dahl Reitan12%
Erlend Segberg12%
Tom Strannegård12%
Eirik Schulze7%
Jacob Pryts0%
Sebastian Griesbeck0%
Mikael Ugland0%
Fredrik Palerud0%
Kristoffer Tønnessen0%
John Olav Norheim0%
Markus Soomets0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
James Ampofo0%
Omar Jebali0%
Lukas Hjelleset Gausdal0%
Alexander Gurendal0%
Santino Samuyiwa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Erlend Dahl Reitan41%
Steve Mvoué36%
Altin Ujkani33%
Kristoffer Tønnessen20%
Alexander Gurendal20%
Mikael Ugland19%
Ousmane Diallo Toure19%
Erlend Segberg18%
Deni Dashaev17%
Sebastian Griesbeck14%
Eirik Schulze14%
John Olav Norheim14%
Fredrik Palerud11%
Omar Jebali8%
James Ampofo7%
Jacob Pryts6%
Jesper Cornelius6%
Hakon Lorentzen0%
Markus Soomets0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Tom Strannegård0%
Lukas Hjelleset Gausdal0%
Santino Samuyiwa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Strannegård18%
Hakon Lorentzen17%
Eirik Schulze14%
Erlend Segberg12%
Jesper Cornelius11%
Omar Jebali8%
Mikael Ugland6%
Jacob Pryts0%
Sebastian Griesbeck0%
Erlend Dahl Reitan0%
Fredrik Palerud0%
Kristoffer Tønnessen0%
John Olav Norheim0%
Steve Mvoué0%
Altin Ujkani0%
Markus Soomets0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Ousmane Diallo Toure0%
James Ampofo0%
Deni Dashaev0%
Lukas Hjelleset Gausdal0%
Alexander Gurendal0%
Santino Samuyiwa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jesper Cornelius33%
James Ampofo20%
Deni Dashaev17%
Eirik Schulze14%
Hakon Lorentzen11%
John Olav Norheim7%
Mikael Ugland6%
Erlend Segberg6%
Jacob Pryts0%
Sebastian Griesbeck0%
Erlend Dahl Reitan0%
Fredrik Palerud0%
Kristoffer Tønnessen0%
Steve Mvoué0%
Altin Ujkani0%
Markus Soomets0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Tom Strannegård0%
Ousmane Diallo Toure0%
Omar Jebali0%
Lukas Hjelleset Gausdal0%
Alexander Gurendal0%
Santino Samuyiwa0%
KFUM Oslo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Teodor Haltvik40%
Bilal Njie31%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge19%
Magnus Wolff Eikrem17%
Magnus Grødem15%
Hakon Helland Hoseth12%
Simen Hestnes9%
Bjorn Martin Kristensen6%
Daniel Schneider6%
Amin Nouri0%
Robin Rasch0%
Tore Andre Soras0%
Sander Hansen Sjøkvist0%
Martin Tangen Vinjor0%
Fredrik Tobias Berglie0%
David Hickson Gyedu0%
Havar Jensen0%
Emil Odegaard0%
Eirik Franke Saunes0%
Brage Skaret0%
Momodou Lion Njie0%
Jonas Lange Hjorth0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Momodou Lion Njie33%
Martin Tangen Vinjor24%
Daniel Schneider22%
Tore Andre Soras20%
David Hickson Gyedu20%
Brage Skaret20%
Eirik Franke Saunes19%
Magnus Grødem15%
Robin Rasch12%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge12%
Bilal Njie8%
Fredrik Tobias Berglie8%
Jonas Lange Hjorth8%
Sander Hansen Sjøkvist6%
Hakon Helland Hoseth6%
Bjorn Martin Kristensen6%
Amin Nouri0%
Magnus Wolff Eikrem0%
Havar Jensen0%
Emil Odegaard0%
Simen Hestnes0%
Teodor Haltvik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Magnus Wolff Eikrem17%
Jonas Lange Hjorth15%
Robin Rasch12%
Hakon Helland Hoseth12%
Martin Tangen Vinjor12%
David Hickson Gyedu10%
Brage Skaret10%
Simen Hestnes9%
Sander Hansen Sjøkvist6%
Amin Nouri0%
Bilal Njie0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Tore Andre Soras0%
Fredrik Tobias Berglie0%
Havar Jensen0%
Emil Odegaard0%
Eirik Franke Saunes0%
Teodor Haltvik0%
Bjorn Martin Kristensen0%
Momodou Lion Njie0%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge0%
Daniel Schneider0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Teodor Haltvik20%
Rasmus Eggen Vinge12%
Magnus Wolff Eikrem8%
Bilal Njie8%
Magnus Grødem8%
Amin Nouri0%
Robin Rasch0%
Tore Andre Soras0%
Sander Hansen Sjøkvist0%
Martin Tangen Vinjor0%
Fredrik Tobias Berglie0%
David Hickson Gyedu0%
Havar Jensen0%
Emil Odegaard0%
Simen Hestnes0%
Eirik Franke Saunes0%
Hakon Helland Hoseth0%
Brage Skaret0%
Bjorn Martin Kristensen0%
Momodou Lion Njie0%
Jonas Lange Hjorth0%
Daniel Schneider0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRA (25)
€27m
FRE (25)
€15m
STA (24)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
SOG (19)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Start and KFUM Oslo have a similar squad value (both €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRA (10)
€11m
STA (9)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
KO (8)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Start and KFUM Oslo have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRA (4)
€7m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
KO (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Start's midfield is €1m more valuable than KFUM Oslo's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRA (11)
€9m
FRE (16)
€8m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
Start and KFUM Oslo have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Norway: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Brann
Stabaek
Kongsvinger
Sandnes ULF
Sogndal
Ranheim
Mjondalen
Fredrikstad
Bryne
Raufoss
Skeid
Asane
Grorud
Stjørdals-Blink
Arendal