PythiaFootballBETA
Viking is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 63% probability of taking the three points. The model's high rating for Viking is largely due to Start's struggles at home, where they have an average of 1 goal scored and 2.4 goals conceded against stronger opponents. In contrast, Viking has an impressive away form, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 1.19 against weaker opponents.
The model predicts an expected total of 2.9 goals, with the most likely score being 0-2 in favour of Viking. The home side's recent form has been poor, with 2 straight defeats, including a 0-1 loss to Fredrikstad.
The model's selection is an away win, with a 63% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.8% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 73.3% probability. The probabilities for home, draw, and away wins are 15%, 23%, and 63% respectively.
The win extends Start's recent woes, as they suffered their third loss in a row. The final score was 0-3, with Viking securing the away win. The model's selection, Viking, was the favourite with a 63% chance of winning, and its call was correct. The model's selection, Over 1.5, came in with a probability of 79.8%, while Over 21.5 fouls also hit with 73.3% probability. The most likely total goals was 2, but the actual total was not relevant as the game ended with a 3-goal margin.
Start| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 1.36 | 1.12 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.00 | 3.14 | 0.75 | 2.25 | 1.33 | 4.33 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.29 | 1.47 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 0.91 | 1.55 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.67 | 0.67 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-0pp vs league) | |||||
Viking| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.53 | 1.10 | 3.31 | 1.00 | 1.94 | 1.18 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 2.57 | 1.00 | 2.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 2.52 | 1.13 | 3.71 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.19 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
| Viking goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.4% | 10.0% | 11% | 7.5% | 3.8% |
| 1 | 3.8% | 11% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| 2 | 2.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
StartVikingStart| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 24.3 | 25.2 | 23.8 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 9.3 | 6.8 | 12.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 24.1 | 26.5 | 21.0 |
| vs Similar (30) | 8.2 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 24.5 | 22.5 | 25.2 |
| vs Weaker (13) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 27% | 33% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 19% | 80% | 67% | 89% |
| % under line | 73% | 67% | 78% | 86% | 92% | 81% | 20% | 33% | 11% |
Viking| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.7 | 12.7 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 24.8 | 24.7 | 24.9 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 25.1 | 24.0 | 26.6 |
| vs Weaker (38) | 12.1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 24.7 | 25.1 | 24.4 |
| % over line | 67% | 78% | 56% | 60% | 54% | 65% | 62% | 65% | 60% |
| % under line | 33% | 22% | 44% | 40% | 46% | 35% | 38% | 35% | 40% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79.8% | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.14 | -2.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 6-3 |
Start| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 12/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 6-3 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 |
Viking| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 6-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 41 | 76% | 2.4 | 43 | 12 | +31 | 3.2 | 88% | 71% | 41% | 10.1 | 59% | 2.3 | 12% | 19.6 | 29% | 75 | 22 | 27 | 26 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 65% |
| 2 | Viking | 17 | 40 | 76% | 2.4 | 40 | 17 | +23 | 3.4 | 88% | 76% | 24% | 12.2 | 82% | 4.9 | 81% | 24.9 | 65% | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 3 |  Tromso | 17 | 34 | 59% | 2.0 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 3.2 | 82% | 53% | 47% | 9.6 | 41% | 2.8 | 33% | 23.1 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 4 |  Molde | 17 | 27 | 47% | 1.6 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 3.4 | 82% | 65% | 41% | 9.9 | 47% | 4.1 | 59% | 24.6 | 59% | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 59% |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 17 | 26 | 47% | 1.5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 2.6 | 88% | 47% | 29% | 10.5 | 65% | 4.6 | 62% | 25.6 | 71% | 14 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 6 |  Brann | 17 | 25 | 47% | 1.5 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 3.7 | 94% | 88% | 47% | 11.9 | 71% | 3.8 | 65% | 24.1 | 65% | 25 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 59% |
| 7 |  Rosenborg | 17 | 24 | 41% | 1.4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 2.8 | 94% | 53% | 24% | 12.4 | 71% | 4.0 | 62% | 26.3 | 76% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 8 |  Fredrikstad | 17 | 23 | 41% | 1.4 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 2.6 | 76% | 53% | 29% | 9.9 | 65% | 3.6 | 50% | 22.5 | 59% | 15 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 17 | 22 | 35% | 1.3 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 2.5 | 71% | 53% | 18% | 10.3 | 59% | 3.5 | 41% | 22.7 | 59% | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 10 |  Ham-Kam | 17 | 22 | 35% | 1.3 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 3.2 | 88% | 71% | 35% | 9.5 | 53% | 3.4 | 44% | 24.7 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 |  Valerenga | 17 | 21 | 35% | 1.2 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 3.6 | 82% | 59% | 47% | 12.8 | 71% | 3.4 | 44% | 21.8 | 35% | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 12 |  KFUM Oslo | 17 | 19 | 29% | 1.1 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 2.7 | 82% | 53% | 29% | 9.1 | 59% | 3.8 | 59% | 21.9 | 47% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 17 | 18 | 29% | 1.1 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 2.2 | 65% | 47% | 18% | 12.2 | 88% | 3.8 | 56% | 24.7 | 76% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 17 | 15 | 24% | 0.9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 2.5 | 82% | 53% | 12% | 10.8 | 59% | 4.2 | 53% | 23.9 | 59% | 13 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 17 | 15 | 12% | 0.9 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 4.0 | 94% | 65% | 53% | 12.4 | 88% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.2 | 59% | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 43% |
| 16 | Start | 17 | 10 | 12% | 0.6 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 3.2 | 94% | 59% | 24% | 8.9 | 35% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.6 | 76% | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 42% |