Stenhousemuir’s defensive solidity is the headline, having kept only 0.6 goals per game at home against stronger opposition while scoring 1.67. Arbroath, meanwhile, has been less prolific on the road, conceding more than they score against this tier. The model favours a home win, with a 52 % chance, followed by a 30 % draw and a 18 % away victory. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal match that is 28 % likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0, with a 16 % probability. Recent form underpins the narrative: Stenhousemuir are on a three-game winning streak, while Arbroath come off a win. The model’s selections are overwhelmingly low-scoring: Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Under 5.5 (98.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0 %), Home +2 handicap (94.6 %), and Under 4.5 (94.1 %). These picks reflect the tight, defensive nature of the encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stenhousemuir win
53.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath win
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stenhousemuir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.86
vs Stronger (29)
1.48
0.69
1.47
0.53
1.50
0.86
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.06
0.81
0.64
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.67
1.25
2.00
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.45
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.1%
Under 1.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.1%
Under 2.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
1-1
13.2%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
11.7%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
4.5%
Stenhousemuir goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.0%
3.1%
0.8%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
8.8%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
5.7%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stenhousemuir goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Stenhousemuir is 0.23 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Stenhousemuir and Arbroath are level in goals scored per game (both 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Stenhousemuir is 0.15 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stenhousemuir
For 4.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
For 4.6 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stenhousemuir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.6
8.6
3.3
2.8
3.7
27.0
27.7
26.4
vs Stronger (49)
8.6
8.6
8.6
3.3
3.0
3.7
27.0
27.7
26.4
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
40%
41%
50%
42%
58%
81%
87%
76%
% under line
59%
60%
59%
50%
58%
42%
19%
13%
24%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
7.9
7.4
1.0
1.2
0.9
24.2
22.7
26.2
vs Stronger (16)
7.0
6.7
7.3
1.5
1.6
1.4
24.8
21.3
28.3
vs Similar (33)
9.0
10.0
7.5
0.8
0.9
0.6
23.2
23.3
23.0
vs Weaker (1)
5.0
5.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
25%
29%
20%
18%
20%
16%
75%
57%
100%
% under line
75%
71%
80%
82%
80%
84%
25%
43%
0%
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.3%
Under 9.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.1%
Under 3.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.3%
Under 21.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stenhousemuir or Draw
82.1%
Avg Implied -
53%
29%
18%
covers Stenhousemuir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir or Arbroath
71.0%
Avg Implied -
53%
29%
18%
covers Stenhousemuir + Arbroath
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arbroath
46.9%
Avg Implied -
53%
29%
18%
covers Draw + Arbroath
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stenhousemuir, so a minus line means Stenhousemuir give that many goals of a start and Arbroath receive them. At -1, Stenhousemuir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stenhousemuir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stenhousemuir)
Stenhousemuir -2
11.1%
Draw -2
16.7%
Arbroath +2
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stenhousemuir)
Stenhousemuir -1
27.8%
Draw -1
25.4%
Arbroath +1
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stenhousemuir)
Stenhousemuir +1
82.1%
Draw +1
12.3%
Arbroath -1
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stenhousemuir)
Stenhousemuir +2
94.5%
Draw +2
4.3%
Arbroath -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stenhousemuir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.27
0.56
0.19
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (29)
0.79
0.28
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.36
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.38
0.25
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.36
0.09
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stenhousemuir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.41
0.87
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.69
0.56
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.75
1.25
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.35
0.64
0.36
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Stenhousemuir and Arbroath have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Stenhousemuir and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Stenhousemuir and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Partick
Raith Rovers
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park