The Pythia model points to an away win as the clear favourite, rating a 72% chance for Livingston to come away victorious. This high probability reflects Livingston’s strong form and the fact that Stenhousemuir, playing at home, has struggled against stronger opponents, conceding only 0.6 goals per game while scoring 1.67. The model also projects an average of 3.3 goals, with the most likely total being three, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Livingston, carrying a 11.1% chance. Home win probability sits at 10%, draw at 18%, and away win at 72%. The suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 7.5 (98.0%), Away +2 handicap (96.8%), Under 6.5 (94.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.7%), Under 5.5 cards (92.2%), Away over 0.5 goals (91.5% miss), and Draw or Away (90.0%). The model’s recent form notes that Stenhousemuir is on a three-game winning streak, while Livingston comes off a win, reinforcing the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, failed to materialise as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. Stenhousemuir, on a three-game winning streak, and Livingston, fresh from a victory, were both denied a result. The model’s selection for an away win, with a 72% probability, proved incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.9%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.0%, Away +2 handicap hit at 96.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 94.9%, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 94.7%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 92.2%, Away over 0.5 goals missed at 91.5%, and Draw or Away hit at 90.0%. The game delivered a low-scoring stalemate, underscoring the unpredictability of cup encounters.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stenhousemuir win✗ Miss
10.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Livingston win✗ Miss
72.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stenhousemuir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.77
1.69
0.56
1.29
1.00
vs Stronger (29)
1.48
0.79
1.67
0.60
1.29
1.00
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.80
1.62
1.81
0.86
1.79
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
2.20
1.60
2.20
0.80
2.20
vs Similar (19)
0.95
1.68
1.00
1.80
0.89
1.56
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
8.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.2%
Under 2.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.1%
Under 3.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.1%
1-2
9.4%
0-3
9.2%
1-1
8.4%
0-1
8.3%
1-3
7.7%
0-4
5.6%
1-4
4.7%
Stenhousemuir goals ↓
Livingston goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
8.3%
11%
9.2%
5.6%
1
2.3%
8.4%
9.4%
7.7%
4.7%
2
1.3%
3.2%
3.9%
3.2%
2.0%
3
0.4%
0.9%
1.1%
0.9%
0.6%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stenhousemuir goals (down), columns = Livingston goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.60
Partick
2.50
ST Johnstone
2.40
Alloa Athletic
2.40
Motherwell
2.29
ST Mirren
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Celtic
2.25
Airdrie United
2.25
Kilmarnock
2.20
Falkirk
2.00
Rangers
2.00
Ayr Utd
1.80
Morton
1.80
Ross County
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Queen's Park
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.50
Inverness CT
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
Dundee
1.50
Hibernian
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
East Kilbride
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Clyde
1.25
Stranraer
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Forfar
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Montrose
0.75
Queen of the South
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.33
Edinburgh City
0.25
Annan Athletic
0.25
Elgin
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Peterhead
0.00
Stenhousemuir is 0.50 points worse than Livingston in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.40
Raith Rovers
3.25
Celtic
3.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
Falkirk
3.00
Ayr Utd
2.80
ST Mirren
2.75
Ross County
2.75
East Kilbride
2.75
Rangers
2.33
Queen's Park
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Inverness CT
2.25
Partick
2.17
Morton
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Kilmarnock
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.80
Motherwell
1.57
Arbroath
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Cove Rangers
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Peterhead
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Forfar
0.75
East Fife
0.67
Elgin
0.50
Dumbarton
0.50
Stranraer
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.25
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Stenhousemuir is 1.25 goals worse than Livingston in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.40
Aberdeen
0.50
Cove Rangers
0.50
Kilmarnock
0.60
ST Johnstone
0.60
Dundee
0.75
Stranraer
0.75
Ayr Utd
1.00
Partick
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Airdrie United
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
ST Mirren
1.12
Arbroath
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Celtic
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.40
Queen's Park
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Forfar
1.50
Morton
1.60
Rangers
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Dundee Utd
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Clyde
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Stirling
2.25
Raith Rovers
2.25
Peterhead
2.25
Kelty Hearts
2.33
Montrose
2.50
East Kilbride
3.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Brechin
4.25
Elgin
4.75
Annan Athletic
5.25
Stenhousemuir is 0.50 goals worse than Livingston in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
63%
ST Mirren
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stenhousemuir
For 5.5 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.8 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Livingston
For 5.1 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stenhousemuir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.6
8.7
3.7
3.6
3.9
27.0
27.8
26.3
vs Stronger (48)
8.6
8.6
8.7
3.9
3.7
4.1
27.0
27.8
26.3
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
39%
33%
44%
58%
54%
62%
81%
83%
78%
% under line
61%
67%
56%
42%
46%
38%
19%
17%
22%
This opponent (Livingston) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.7
3.3
3.5
3.1
25.2
27.6
23.1
vs Stronger (17)
11.7
12.0
11.4
4.8
4.9
4.6
25.4
26.9
23.9
vs Similar (32)
9.5
8.7
10.2
2.6
2.9
2.4
25.1
28.1
22.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
50%
65%
50%
56%
44%
71%
83%
60%
% under line
42%
50%
35%
50%
44%
56%
29%
17%
40%
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Queen's Park
12.0
ST Mirren
11.2
Morton
11.0
Stirling
11.0
Ross County
10.9
Hibernian
10.8
Celtic
10.7
Dumbarton
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.4
Partick
10.4
East Kilbride
10.4
Rangers
10.4
Stranraer
10.4
Elgin
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.2
Airdrie United
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
Livingston
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Heart Of Midlothian
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Falkirk
9.9
Dundee
9.8
Clyde
9.7
East Fife
9.7
Arbroath
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.4
Kelty Hearts
9.4
Inverness CT
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Dunfermline
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Peterhead
9.0
Hamilton Academical
9.0
Forfar
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.6
Montrose
8.4
Motherwell
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Peterhead
5.0
Stenhousemuir
4.9
Aberdeen
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Morton
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Partick
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Forfar
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.3
Clyde
4.3
Livingston
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
ST Johnstone
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Celtic
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Montrose
3.7
Dundee
3.7
Arbroath
3.6
East Fife
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
ST Mirren
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Hamilton Academical
3.0
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.4
East Kilbride
26.4
Motherwell
25.9
Rangers
25.8
Aberdeen
25.7
Stenhousemuir
25.2
Livingston
25.0
Falkirk
24.5
Kilmarnock
24.4
Forfar
24.1
Edinburgh City
23.9
Heart Of Midlothian
23.5
East Fife
22.8
Elgin
22.7
Hibernian
22.6
Kelty Hearts
22.5
ST Johnstone
22.4
Montrose
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Stranraer
22.1
Clyde
22.0
ST Mirren
22.0
Dundee
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.8
Morton
21.8
Celtic
21.7
Inverness CT
21.6
Dunfermline
21.3
Ross County
21.0
Cove Rangers
20.9
Arbroath
20.8
Stirling
20.8
Spartans
20.5
Dumbarton
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Airdrie United
20.0
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
18.0
Hamilton Academical
9.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.2%
Under 9.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
37.5%
Under 21.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stenhousemuir or Draw✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
10%
18%
72%
covers Stenhousemuir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir or Livingston✗ Miss
82.2%
Avg Implied -
10%
18%
72%
covers Stenhousemuir + Livingston
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Livingston✓ Hit
90.0%
Avg Implied -
10%
18%
72%
covers Draw + Livingston
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
91.5%
Under
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
70.6%
Under
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stenhousemuir, so a minus line means Stenhousemuir give that many goals of a start and Livingston receive them. At -1, Stenhousemuir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stenhousemuir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Livingston
Stenhousemuir -2
0.7%
Draw -2
2.5%
Livingston +2
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Livingston
Stenhousemuir -1
3.2%
Draw -1
6.8%
Livingston +1
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir +1
27.8%
Draw +1
21.5%
Livingston -1
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir +2
49.3%
Draw +2
21.1%
Livingston -2
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stenhousemuir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.30
0.69
0.19
0.93
0.43
vs Stronger (29)
0.83
0.31
0.73
0.20
0.93
0.43
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.69
1.06
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.20
0.80
1.20
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.89
0.30
1.10
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stenhousemuir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
1.00
0.38
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (29)
0.66
0.48
0.93
0.40
0.36
0.57
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.94
0.75
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.79
0.70
0.70
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 1.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's squad is €4m less valuable than Livingston's (€0m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's attack is €1m less valuable than Livingston's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's midfield is €1m less valuable than Livingston's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's defence is €1m less valuable than Livingston's (€0m vs €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Raith Rovers
Partick
Ayr Utd
Arbroath
Inverness CT
Dunfermline
Morton
Queen's Park