Stenhousemuir and Morton face off in the Scotland: Championship on August 8th, with the hosts coming off a draw against Raith Rovers. Morton, meanwhile, suffered a 0-1 defeat to Partick. The model's pick for this match is a home win, with a 46% probability, while the away win is the least likely outcome at 24%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals, but the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% probability. Morton's away form against stronger opponents is concerning, with an average of 1.12 goals scored and 2 conceded. This could be a challenge for the visitors.
The model suggests an Under 3.5 goals selection, with a 79.3% probability and an 8% edge. This selection is backed by Morton's away form and the expected low-scoring nature of the match. The probabilities for the match are 46% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 24% for an away win.
Stenhousemuir's win extends their run of form, having come off a win and now boasting a strong recent record. The final score was a 2-0 victory for the home side, confirming the actual result of the match. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 49%. The model's call was spot on, as Morton struggled to find their footing away from home. The model's other selections largely came in, with 'Over 1.5' and 'Under 3.5' goals both hitting, with probabilities of 74.8% and 73.2% respectively.
Stenhousemuir| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 0.63 | 1.69 | 0.44 | 1.36 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (29) | 1.52 | 0.66 | 1.67 | 0.47 | 1.36 | 0.86 |
| vs Similar (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Morton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.73 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.85 | 1.67 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 2.54 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 4.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
| Morton goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.1% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Stenhousemuir
Morton
Stenhousemuir| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 27.1 | 27.9 | 26.3 |
| vs Stronger (48) | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 27.1 | 27.9 | 26.3 |
| vs Similar (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 38% | 32% | 44% | 58% | 54% | 62% | 81% | 84% | 78% |
| % under line | 62% | 68% | 56% | 42% | 46% | 38% | 19% | 16% | 22% |
Morton| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 22.6 | 23.0 | 22.2 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 10.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 22.0 | 24.5 | 19.5 |
| vs Similar (45) | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 22.9 | 22.2 | 23.5 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 58% | 50% | 67% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| % under line | 42% | 50% | 33% | 90% | 91% | 89% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Stenhousemuir| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 0.19 | 1.00 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (29) | 0.86 | 0.28 | 0.73 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.36 |
| vs Similar (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Morton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Stenhousemuir| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.37 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (29) | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.93 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Morton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 1.17 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.33 | 1.11 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 1.77 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 83.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.4% | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | - | +0.3% | - |
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.27 | +1.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.2% | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.32 | +2.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 15/07/25 | A | 3-0 |
Stenhousemuir| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 05/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-2 |
Morton| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 14/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 2.5 | 100% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | - |
| 2 | Partick | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 1.2 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Arbroath | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | Livingston | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 75% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Ayr Utd | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Dunfermline | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Inverness CT | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | Morton | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.8 | 75% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.5 | - |