Stenhousemuir’s recent three-game winning streak at home is a bright spot, yet the model still favors an away win for Motherwell, assigning an 80 % probability to that outcome. The Cup side’s home form shows 1.64 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, but against a stronger opponent they struggle to keep the ball, which explains the high away win odds. Motherwell’s away form, after two straight defeats, remains solid, and the model’s 3.3 expected total goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, with a 13.3 % chance. The home win probability sits at 6 %, draw at 14 %, and away win at 80 %. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.6 %), Away +2 handicap (98.5 %), Under 7.5 (98.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (97.4 %), Under 6.5 (95.0 %), Draw or Away (94.3 %), Away +1 handicap (94.3 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (93.0 %). All selections are presented with their exact percentages, and the model’s favourite result is the away win.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as Stenhousemuir snatched a 1-0 win, extending their three-game winning streak. The model had tipped an away victory with an 80 % probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Home under 3.5 goals hit at 99.6 %, Away +2 handicap hit at 98.5 %, Under 7.5 hit at 98.1 %, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 97.4 %, Under 6.5 hit at 95.0 %. However, Draw or Away missed at 94.3 %, Away +1 handicap missed at 94.3 %, and Away over 0.5 goals missed at 93.0 %. The final score of 1-0 confirmed a home win, contradicting the model’s favourite.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stenhousemuir win✗ Miss
5.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell win✗ Miss
80.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stenhousemuir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.63
1.75
0.44
1.36
0.86
vs Stronger (29)
1.55
0.66
1.73
0.47
1.36
0.86
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.83
1.67
0.53
1.20
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.67
1.67
1.33
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.42
0.62
1.67
0.33
1.17
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.9%
Under 2.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.8%
Under 3.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.3%
0-3
11.8%
0-1
9.3%
1-2
8.3%
0-4
7.9%
1-3
7.4%
1-1
6.8%
1-4
4.9%
Stenhousemuir goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
9.3%
13%
12%
7.9%
1
1.7%
6.8%
8.3%
7.4%
4.9%
2
0.7%
1.9%
2.6%
2.3%
1.5%
3
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stenhousemuir goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.60
ST Johnstone
2.60
Partick
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.40
Rangers
2.33
ST Mirren
2.25
Airdrie United
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Kilmarnock
2.20
Falkirk
2.00
Motherwell
2.00
Ayr Utd
1.80
Morton
1.80
Celtic
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Ross County
1.75
Inverness CT
1.50
Hibernian
1.50
Dundee
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
East Kilbride
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Livingston
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Stranraer
1.25
Clyde
1.25
Forfar
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Montrose
0.75
Queen of the South
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.33
Annan Athletic
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
Dundee Utd
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Elgin
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Peterhead
0.00
Stenhousemuir is 1.00 points worse than Motherwell in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.40
Raith Rovers
3.25
Falkirk
3.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
Ayr Utd
2.80
ST Mirren
2.75
East Kilbride
2.75
Ross County
2.75
Celtic
2.50
Rangers
2.33
Inverness CT
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Queen's Park
2.25
Partick
2.17
Airdrie United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Morton
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Kilmarnock
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.80
Aberdeen
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Arbroath
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Cove Rangers
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Annan Athletic
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Peterhead
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
East Fife
0.67
Elgin
0.50
Stranraer
0.50
Dumbarton
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.25
Brechin
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Stenhousemuir is 0.68 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.40
ST Johnstone
0.40
Aberdeen
0.50
Cove Rangers
0.50
Kilmarnock
0.60
Dundee
0.75
Stranraer
0.75
Airdrie United
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Partick
1.00
Ayr Utd
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
ST Mirren
1.12
Celtic
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.40
Forfar
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Morton
1.60
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Dundee Utd
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
Clyde
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Raith Rovers
2.25
Stirling
2.25
Peterhead
2.25
Kelty Hearts
2.33
Montrose
2.50
East Kilbride
3.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Brechin
4.25
Elgin
4.75
Annan Athletic
5.25
Stenhousemuir is 0.50 goals worse than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
63%
ST Mirren
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stenhousemuir
For 4.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 3.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stenhousemuir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.4
8.7
3.8
3.6
4.1
27.1
27.9
26.3
vs Stronger (49)
8.5
8.4
8.7
3.9
3.7
4.1
27.1
27.9
26.3
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
32%
44%
58%
52%
65%
81%
84%
78%
% under line
62%
68%
56%
42%
48%
35%
19%
16%
22%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
7.5
8.7
4.4
4.0
4.9
26.3
26.4
26.2
vs Stronger (8)
8.2
8.2
8.2
4.8
5.5
4.0
25.5
26.0
25.0
vs Similar (40)
8.1
7.4
8.8
4.6
3.9
5.3
26.5
26.5
26.4
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
35%
19%
50%
66%
60%
72%
79%
76%
82%
% under line
65%
81%
50%
34%
40%
28%
21%
24%
18%
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Ross County
10.9
Stirling
10.9
Morton
10.9
Celtic
10.8
Hibernian
10.6
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hamilton Academical
10.5
Partick
10.4
East Kilbride
10.4
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Rangers
10.2
Airdrie United
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
Brechin
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.0
Alloa Athletic
10.0
Ayr Utd
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Heart Of Midlothian
9.9
Livingston
9.9
Dundee
9.9
Clyde
9.8
East Fife
9.6
Falkirk
9.6
Arbroath
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.4
Dunfermline
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Inverness CT
9.1
Forfar
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Peterhead
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.5
Montrose
8.5
Motherwell
8.3
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Peterhead
5.0
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Morton
4.5
Heart Of Midlothian
4.5
Partick
4.4
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Livingston
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Celtic
3.9
Montrose
3.7
Dundee
3.6
Arbroath
3.6
East Fife
3.5
Brechin
3.5
ST Mirren
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Raith Rovers
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Queen's Park
2.5
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
Rangers
26.0
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.5
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Falkirk
25.3
Kilmarnock
24.4
Forfar
24.0
Heart Of Midlothian
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Hibernian
23.4
East Fife
22.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Montrose
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Ayr Utd
22.0
ST Mirren
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Clyde
21.7
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Dundee
21.6
Celtic
21.3
Stirling
21.1
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Dumbarton
20.5
Brechin
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.7%
Under 9.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
46.6%
Under 3.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
46.0%
Under 21.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stenhousemuir or Draw✓ Hit
20.0%
Avg Implied -
6%
14%
80%
covers Stenhousemuir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir or Motherwell✗ Miss
85.7%
Avg Implied -
6%
14%
80%
covers Stenhousemuir + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Motherwell✓ Hit
94.3%
Avg Implied -
6%
14%
80%
covers Draw + Motherwell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
93.0%
Under
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stenhousemuir, so a minus line means Stenhousemuir give that many goals of a start and Motherwell receive them. At -1, Stenhousemuir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stenhousemuir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Motherwell
Stenhousemuir -2
0.3%
Draw -2
1.2%
Motherwell +2
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Motherwell
Stenhousemuir -1
1.5%
Draw -1
4.3%
Motherwell +1
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir +1
20.0%
Draw +1
20.2%
Motherwell -1
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Stenhousemuir)Actual: Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir +2
40.2%
Draw +2
22.3%
Motherwell -2
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stenhousemuir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.27
0.69
0.19
1.00
0.36
vs Stronger (29)
0.86
0.28
0.73
0.20
1.00
0.36
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.21
0.67
0.25
0.50
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stenhousemuir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
1.06
0.25
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.38
1.00
0.27
0.36
0.50
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
0.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.42
1.00
0.08
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
I. Said20%
Lukas Fadinger17%
A. Lowry17%
M. Emmanuel17%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
T. Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger50%
M. Moormann40%
Stephen O'Donnell33%
Joe Hodge25%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
T. Sparrow20%
A. Lowry17%
Jamie Knight-Lebel17%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Emmanuel0%
I. Said0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
I. Said20%
T. Sparrow20%
A. Lowry17%
M. Emmanuel17%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
S. Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise50%
A. Lowry33%
M. Emmanuel33%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
Lukas Fadinger17%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
I. Said0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
T. Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's squad is €16m less valuable than Motherwell's (€0m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's attack is €9m less valuable than Motherwell's (€0m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's midfield is €1m less valuable than Motherwell's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Stenhousemuir's defence is €5m less valuable than Motherwell's (€0m vs €5m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park
Celtic
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock