Stevenage’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just 0.85 goals per game, while Doncaster’s away form shows a higher average of 1.36 conceded, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. The model predicts a 41% chance of a Stevenage win, 32% for a draw, and 28% for a Doncaster victory, making a home win the favourite result. With an expected total of 2.2 goals, the most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 14.5% probability. Stevenage averages 1.08 goals scored at home against similar opposition, and Doncaster averages 1.18 away, reinforcing the expectation of a single-goal game. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (97.6% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7% with a 3% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (96.4% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Stevenage, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent streaks of mixed results. The model had chosen a home win with a 41% probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.0%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.3%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.4%. The match’s low scoring nature matched the model’s high probability for under-goals outcomes, but the predicted home advantage did not materialise.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Stevenage win✗ Miss
40.8%
Avg Implied 41.3% · @ 2.26
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.39
BetVictor
2.30
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Dafabet
2.29
Draw✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.21
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
BetVictor
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Doncaster win✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.16
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Stevenage
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.27
1.00
0.81
0.79
1.79
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.71
0.67
0.67
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.13
1.08
0.85
0.90
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.13
1.40
1.13
1.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.11
1.00
2.40
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.14
1.20
0.90
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.35-3.5%
Under 1.5
34.4%
@ 3.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.18
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.5%
@ 2.10-7.2%
Under 2.5
62.5%
@ 1.70+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Under
Betfair
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.9%
@ 3.71-7.2%
Under 3.5
82.1%
@ 1.24+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.0%
@ 1.82-5.9%
No
55.0%
@ 1.89+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Unibet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
No
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.90
Betfair
1.90
BetVictor
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 5.81+6.9%
0-0
12.5%@ 8.06+7.0%
1-0
12.4%@ 6.74+5.8%
0-1
9.5%@ 8.32+4.1%
2-0
8.4%@ 9.96+4.0%
2-1
8.1%@ 8.58+2.9%
1-2
6.4%@ 10.34+2.1%
0-2
5.2%@ 14.39+2.1%
Stevenage goals ↓
Doncaster goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.5%
5.2%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.4%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.4%
8.1%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.4%
3.3%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Stevenage goals (down), columns = Doncaster goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Stevenage is 0.26 points better than Doncaster in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Stevenage is 0.07 goals worse than Doncaster in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Stevenage is 0.48 goals better than Doncaster in terms of goals conceded per game (1.02 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Stevenage is 5.4 percentage points worse than Doncaster in terms of average possession (45% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Stevenage
For 3.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Doncaster
For 3.3 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stevenage
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.5
8.9
3.7
3.6
3.7
24.5
26.2
22.8
vs Stronger (12)
10.3
10.0
10.7
3.3
3.7
3.0
25.0
28.5
21.5
vs Similar (38)
8.1
7.9
8.3
3.8
3.6
3.9
24.3
25.4
23.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
33%
60%
54%
60%
48%
71%
83%
60%
% under line
53%
67%
40%
46%
40%
52%
29%
17%
40%
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.5
10.0
3.7
3.8
3.7
22.6
23.3
21.8
vs Stronger (14)
10.4
11.1
9.6
4.3
4.3
4.3
23.0
24.4
21.6
vs Similar (36)
9.6
8.9
10.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.4
22.9
21.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
37%
33%
40%
50%
54%
46%
57%
58%
56%
% under line
63%
67%
60%
50%
46%
54%
43%
42%
44%
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.3
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
10.9
Wigan
10.6
Bromley
10.4
Luton
10.4
Blackpool
10.4
Huddersfield
10.3
Burton
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Peterboro
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Stockport
10.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.0
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.3
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Blackpool
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Luton
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.7
Bradford
24.6
Stevenage
24.6
Plymouth
24.5
Huddersfield
24.2
Luton
23.8
Peterboro
23.7
Leyton Orient
23.4
Blackpool
23.4
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Cambridge
22.5
Oxford
22.5
Doncaster
22.5
Reading
22.4
Leicester
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Burton
22.2
Sheffield Weds
21.9
Bromley
21.7
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
20.9
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.1%
@ 1.80-0.5%
Under 9.5
48.9%
@ 1.92+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Betfair
1.95
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.4%
Under 3.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.4%
Under 21.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Stevenage or Draw✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied 70.3% · @ 1.33
Edge
+2.1%
41%
32%
28%
covers Stevenage + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Stevenage or Doncaster✗ Miss
68.5%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.31
Edge
-2.6%
41%
32%
28%
covers Stevenage + Doncaster
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Draw or Doncaster✓ Hit
59.2%
Avg Implied 58.6% · @ 1.59
Edge
+0.6%
41%
32%
28%
covers Draw + Doncaster
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Stevenage over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.7%
@ 1.27-2.5%
Under
29.3%
@ 3.46+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Stevenage over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.7%
@ 2.35-5.0%
Under
65.3%
@ 1.55+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
Betfair
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Under
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Stevenage over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.6%
@ 5.27-5.0%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.12+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Stevenage over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 12.50-4.0%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Doncaster over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.9%
@ 1.40-4.3%
Under
38.1%
@ 2.74+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
Doncaster over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.1%
@ 2.97-6.1%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.35+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.12
BetVictor
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Doncaster over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 7.78-4.6%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.06+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.70
Superbet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Doncaster over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 18.25-3.6%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Stevenage, so a minus line means Stevenage give that many goals of a start and Doncaster receive them. At -1, Stevenage must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Stevenage win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Stevenage)Actual: Doncaster
Stevenage -2
6.3%
@ 9.19-3.3%
Draw -2
12.3%
@ 5.92-2.7%
Doncaster +2
81.4%
@ 1.18+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
9.20
10Bet
8.00
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Away
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Stevenage)Actual: Doncaster
Stevenage -1
18.6%
@ 4.33-2.0%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 3.77-1.4%
Doncaster +1
59.2%
@ 1.60+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Away
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Unibet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
Handicap +1 (Stevenage)Actual: Stevenage
Stevenage +1
72.4%
@ 1.32+4.6%
Draw +1
17.2%
@ 4.62-2.2%
Doncaster -1
10.4%
@ 6.98-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Unibet
6.75
Handicap +2 (Stevenage)Actual: Stevenage
Stevenage +2
89.6%
@ 1.07+4.2%
Draw +2
7.6%
@ 9.60-2.0%
Doncaster -2
2.8%
@ 18.00-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.30
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
18.00
Superbet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Stevenage
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.50
0.38
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.48
0.54
0.38
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.50
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
0.00
1.20
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.33
0.70
0.20
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
64.8%
@ 1.43-0.0%
Under 0.5
35.2%
@ 2.64+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.45
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
Superbet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.3%
@ 3.04-1.4%
Under 1.5
70.7%
@ 1.34+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.3%
@ 8.06-2.3%
Under 2.5
90.7%
@ 1.05+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Stevenage over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.6%
@ 2.03-0.1%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.71+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Stevenage over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.9%
@ 6.27-1.8%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.08+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
Superbet
6.10
Betano
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Stevenage over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 17.33-2.8%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Doncaster over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.39-2.0%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.51+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Doncaster over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 8.26-3.0%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.90
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Doncaster over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 31.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Stevenage
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.50
0.44
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.65
0.54
0.46
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.67
0.87
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.22
1.00
1.20
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.81
0.50
0.70
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.27+2.6%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.44-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Under
Betano
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.8%
@ 2.27-2.2%
Under 1.5
61.2%
@ 1.58+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 5.08-3.3%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.14+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.10
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Stevenage over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.4%
@ 1.73+1.8%
Under
44.6%
@ 2.00-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Stevenage over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
17.3%
@ 4.61-2.8%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.16+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Stevenage over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 12.25-4.1%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Doncaster over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.3%
@ 1.97-2.7%
Under
55.7%
@ 1.75+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Under
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Doncaster over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.8%
@ 5.92-3.8%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.10+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Doncaster over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 17.50-3.5%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
87.4%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.0%
1.14
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
82.1%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
Betfair
1.25
+7.2%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
81.4%
1.18
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.9%
1.35
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+6.1%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
1.32
Superbet
1.40
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
72.4%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.4%
1.32
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.34
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.7%
1.27
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-2.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stevenage
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Magennis40%
J. Roberts20%
D. Kemp20%
O. Sanderson20%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
Luther James-Wildin0%
C. Piergianni0%
L. Thompson0%
L. Freestone0%
P. Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luther James-Wildin67%
C. Piergianni40%
J. Roberts20%
L. Freestone20%
D. Kemp20%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
L. Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
P. Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
O. Sanderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Patterson40%
J. Roberts0%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
Luther James-Wildin0%
C. Piergianni0%
L. Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
L. Freestone0%
D. Kemp0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
O. Sanderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Kemp40%
P. Patterson20%
O. Sanderson20%
J. Roberts0%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
Luther James-Wildin0%
C. Piergianni0%
L. Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
L. Freestone0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
Doncaster
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Isaac Hutchinson40%
J. Senior20%
A. May20%
Owen Bailey20%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
J. McGrath0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Senior40%
Robbie Gotts25%
George Broadbent25%
J. Thomas25%
Isaac Hutchinson20%
Owen Bailey20%
J. McGrath20%
Neill Byrne0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
A. May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bayley McCann33%
J. Senior20%
J. McGrath20%
Neill Byrne0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
A. May0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Isaac Hutchinson0%
Jamie Sterry0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. May20%
Isaac Hutchinson20%
Owen Bailey20%
Neill Byrne0%
J. Senior0%
Robbie Gotts0%
Hakeeb Adelakun0%
Brandon Hanlan0%
Jamie Sterry0%
George Broadbent0%
J. McGrath0%
S. Grehan0%
Tommy Simkin0%
Bayley McCann0%
J. Thomas0%
Leon Ayinde0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Stevenage and Doncaster have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Stevenage and Doncaster have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Stevenage and Doncaster have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Stevenage and Doncaster have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe