PythiaFootballBETA
Stockport is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 62% chance of securing a home win. The model's high rating for Stockport is largely due to Port Vale's poor away form, particularly when facing stronger opponents, with an average of just 0.5 goals scored. In contrast, Stockport has been scoring at an average of 1.87 goals per match at home, where they are also conceding fewer than 1.3 goals.
The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 2-0 to Stockport, with a probability of 11.9%. Port Vale's away scoring and conceding stats are not in their favour, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 2 goals conceded.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with a 76.4% chance of hitting, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 71.1% chance of hitting. The home win percentage stands at 62%, the draw percentage at 24%, and the away win percentage at 15%.
The away team, Port Vale, pulled off an upset, defeating the home team, Stockport, 1-2. This win extends their run of not being on the receiving end of a thrashing, having conceded an average of 2 goals away from home in their last 5 matches. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 62%. Meanwhile, the model correctly predicted that the match would go Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 76.4%, and that it would go Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 71.1%.
Stockport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.87 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.40 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.55 | 1.35 | 2.10 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Port Vale| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.47 | 0.94 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 2.29 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 4.50 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.83 | 1.42 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.75 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Port Vale goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12% | 11% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
StockportPort ValeStockport| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 21.4 | 21.3 | 21.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 11.1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 |
| vs Weaker (30) | 8.8 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 21.1 | 20.9 | 21.3 |
| % over line | 50% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 44% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| % under line | 50% | 50% | 50% | 52% | 56% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Port Vale| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.7 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 21.2 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 11.3 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 21.6 | 22.7 | 19.8 |
| vs Similar (39) | 10.5 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 21.6 | 21.8 | 21.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 65% | 62% | 70% | 48% | 52% | 43% | 53% | 54% | 52% |
| % under line | 35% | 38% | 30% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 47% | 46% | 48% |
Stockport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 0.60 | 0.65 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Port Vale| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.46 | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Stockport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.63 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.80 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 0.95 | 0.70 | 1.30 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Port Vale| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.21 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.38 | 0.83 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 87.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 74.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 70.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/25 | A | 0-3 |
Stockport| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-1 |
Port Vale| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 7-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 24/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Lincoln | 46 | 103 | 67% | 2.2 | 89 | 41 | +48 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 9.3 | 41% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.8 | 61% | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 42% |
| 2 |  Cardiff | 46 | 91 | 59% | 2.0 | 90 | 50 | +40 | 3.0 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 10.5 | 61% | 3.5 | 52% | 20.6 | 30% | 31 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 63% |
| 3 |  Bolton | 49 | 84 | 45% | 1.7 | 76 | 53 | +23 | 2.6 | 76% | 47% | 27% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 49% | 22.4 | 57% | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 4 | Stockport | 49 | 83 | 49% | 1.7 | 75 | 62 | +13 | 2.8 | 80% | 59% | 24% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.4 | 51% | 21.2 | 45% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 5 |  Bradford | 48 | 77 | 46% | 1.6 | 58 | 53 | +5 | 2.3 | 69% | 50% | 17% | 9.9 | 52% | 4.4 | 67% | 25.2 | 77% | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 6 |  Stevenage | 48 | 75 | 44% | 1.6 | 49 | 49 | +0 | 2.0 | 52% | 35% | 19% | 8.7 | 46% | 3.8 | 54% | 24.5 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 7 |  Luton | 46 | 74 | 46% | 1.6 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 2.7 | 76% | 54% | 28% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 54% | 24.0 | 63% | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 8 |  Plymouth | 46 | 73 | 48% | 1.6 | 75 | 63 | +12 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 11.3 | 74% | 5.2 | 80% | 24.5 | 67% | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 9 |  Huddersfield | 46 | 67 | 39% | 1.5 | 74 | 64 | +10 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 43% | 10.5 | 59% | 4.1 | 61% | 25.0 | 76% | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 10 |  Mansfield | 46 | 65 | 35% | 1.4 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 2.4 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 9.5 | 39% | 3.6 | 46% | 22.4 | 57% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 11 |  Wycombe | 46 | 63 | 37% | 1.4 | 69 | 58 | +11 | 2.8 | 80% | 52% | 28% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.5 | 41% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 |  Reading | 46 | 63 | 35% | 1.4 | 64 | 60 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 48% | 26% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.6 | 50% | 22.4 | 57% | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 13 |  Blackpool | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 54 | 65 | -11 | 2.6 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 9.9 | 57% | 3.7 | 52% | 24.0 | 76% | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 14 |  Doncaster | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 2.6 | 72% | 50% | 22% | 9.7 | 35% | 3.9 | 52% | 23.3 | 63% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 15 |  Barnsley | 46 | 59 | 33% | 1.3 | 68 | 73 | -5 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 46% | 10.9 | 57% | 3.5 | 50% | 21.0 | 43% | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 16 |  Wigan | 46 | 56 | 30% | 1.2 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 2.3 | 70% | 35% | 17% | 10.8 | 61% | 3.1 | 39% | 23.6 | 63% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 17 |  Burton | 46 | 54 | 28% | 1.2 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 2.4 | 70% | 50% | 22% | 10.4 | 52% | 3.6 | 52% | 22.0 | 41% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 18 |  Peterboro | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 26% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 67% | 23.6 | 61% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 19 |  AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 72 | -21 | 2.7 | 67% | 50% | 30% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.2 | 46% | 23.2 | 65% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 20 |  Leyton Orient | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 33% | 9.6 | 52% | 4.1 | 61% | 23.0 | 65% | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 21 |  Exeter | 46 | 49 | 26% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.5 | 65% | 46% | 24% | 10.1 | 54% | 3.3 | 50% | 22.0 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 22 | Port Vale | 46 | 42 | 22% | 0.9 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 2.1 | 54% | 39% | 22% | 10.2 | 59% | 3.6 | 52% | 21.3 | 48% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 23 |  Rotherham | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 41 | 71 | -30 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 24% | 9.8 | 52% | 4.2 | 65% | 23.9 | 65% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 24 |  Northampton | 46 | 35 | 20% | 0.8 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 2.5 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.4 | 43% | 21.9 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 45% |