The model favours an away win, with a 44% chance for Newry City AFC, 30% for Strabane Athletic and 27% for a draw. The expected total is 2.9 goals, but the most likely total is 2, with a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% chance. Strabane, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1 goal scored and 2 conceded, while Newry, on the road, averages 0.5 goals scored and 3.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 5.5 (92.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.2%), Away +2 handicap (86.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (86.2%) and Under 4.5 (83.7%). Strabane have recently struggled, losing three straight matches, while Newry come off a win and have shown a stronger away form.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Strabane Athletic win
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC win
43.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Strabane Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.00
0.67
1.67
2.00
2.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
4.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newry City AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.93
1.00
1.67
1.07
2.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.79
0.62
1.62
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
2.86
1.67
2.33
0.50
3.25
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
1.44
1.25
1.25
1.20
1.60
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Strabane Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.6%
Under 2.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.2%
0-0
6.8%
1-0
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
Strabane Athletic goals ↓
Newry City AFC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
7.9%
7.2%
3.8%
1.5%
1
6.1%
13%
9.2%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.6%
7.4%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.0%
3.1%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Strabane Athletic goals (down), columns = Newry City AFC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Strabane Athletic is 1.20 points worse than Newry City AFC in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Strabane Athletic is 0.20 goals worse than Newry City AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Strabane Athletic is 0.20 goals worse than Newry City AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Strabane Athletic or Draw
56.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
44%
covers Strabane Athletic + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic or Newry City AFC
73.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
44%
covers Strabane Athletic + Newry City AFC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Newry City AFC
70.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
44%
covers Draw + Newry City AFC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Strabane Athletic over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Strabane Athletic, so a minus line means Strabane Athletic give that many goals of a start and Newry City AFC receive them. At -1, Strabane Athletic must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Strabane Athletic win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Strabane Athletic)
Strabane Athletic -2
4.4%
Draw -2
8.7%
Newry City AFC +2
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Strabane Athletic)
Strabane Athletic -1
13.1%
Draw -1
16.4%
Newry City AFC +1
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Strabane Athletic)
Strabane Athletic +1
56.4%
Draw +1
20.8%
Newry City AFC -1
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Strabane Athletic)
Strabane Athletic +2
77.2%
Draw +2
13.5%
Newry City AFC -2
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Strabane Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.20
0.33
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newry City AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.73
0.93
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.00
0.38
1.25
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
1.00
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Strabane Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.5%
Under 0.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.2%
Under 1.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.1%
Under 2.5
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Strabane Athletic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Strabane Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newry City AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.10
0.27
0.73
0.60
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.79
0.25
0.38
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (7)
0.29
2.00
0.33
1.67
0.25
2.25
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.89
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Strabane Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.4%
Under 0.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.9%
Under 1.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.1%
Under 2.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Strabane Athletic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Strabane Athletic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
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Newington Youth
H&W Welders
Glenavon FC
Queen's University
Annagh United
Loughgall
Ards
Warrenpoint Town
Moyola Park
Ballinamallard United
Institute
Dundela
Armagh City
Rathfriland