Sturm Graz and Lask Linz face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The probability spread is 37% for a Sturm victory, 29% for a draw and 34% for Lask. The average goal count sits at 2.6, and the most likely total is two goals, a 1-1 scoreline emerging as the single most probable result with a 13.9% chance. Sturm, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Lask, on the road, averages 2.29 scored and 1.29 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.4% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.5% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2% with a 5% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (95.5% with a 5% edge). Sturm’s recent form shows a loss to Rapid Vienna, while Lask comes off a three-game winning streak, adding intrigue to an encounter that could swing either way.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sturm Graz win
37.0%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.49
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.51
Marathonbet
2.51
Bet365
2.50
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.52
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Lask Linz win
33.9%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.52
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sturm Graz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.97
1.00
0.50
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.88
1.25
0.50
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (18)
1.67
0.83
1.12
0.38
2.10
1.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Lask Linz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lask Linz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.20
2.47
1.07
2.47
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
2.40
2.33
2.33
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (12)
2.50
1.08
2.80
0.80
2.29
1.29
vs Weaker (13)
2.62
0.85
2.29
0.71
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.8%
@ 1.18-4.3%
Under 1.5
26.2%
@ 4.23+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.2%
@ 1.65-9.9%
Under 2.5
52.8%
@ 2.20+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Bet365
1.65
Under
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.6%
@ 2.55-10.8%
Under 3.5
74.4%
@ 1.46+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.48
Under
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Both teams to score
Yes
53.4%
@ 1.52-7.4%
No
46.6%
@ 2.37+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
No
William Hil
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.37
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.81+7.2%
0-0
9.0%@ 13.11+5.5%
1-0
8.9%@ 10.18+4.4%
0-1
8.4%@ 10.61+4.1%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.21+3.4%
1-2
7.9%@ 9.26+3.0%
2-0
6.7%@ 13.79+3.3%
0-2
6.0%@ 13.96+2.7%
Sturm Graz goals ↓
Lask Linz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
8.4%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
1
8.9%
14%
7.9%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.7%
8.3%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.9%
3.6%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sturm Graz goals (down), columns = Lask Linz goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
Sturm Graz is 1.40 points worse than Lask Linz in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
Sturm Graz is 1.80 goals worse than Lask Linz in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
Sturm Graz is 0.60 goals worse than Lask Linz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Sturm Graz is 3.0 percentage points worse than Lask Linz in terms of average possession (55% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sturm Graz
For 6.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.5 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lask Linz
For 6.7 · Against 3.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sturm Graz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.4
9.6
4.3
4.7
4.0
23.7
24.5
22.9
vs Stronger (5)
9.8
12.5
8.0
4.2
6.0
3.0
29.2
30.0
28.7
vs Similar (16)
9.7
8.4
11.0
4.6
4.4
4.9
23.7
23.9
23.5
vs Weaker (29)
10.2
11.4
9.0
4.2
4.8
3.8
22.5
24.0
21.1
% over line
56%
59%
52%
58%
59%
57%
67%
68%
65%
% under line
44%
41%
48%
42%
41%
43%
33%
32%
35%
This opponent (Lask Linz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lask Linz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.3
10.7
3.0
3.3
2.8
21.2
21.9
20.6
vs Stronger (6)
10.5
12.0
9.0
2.2
2.0
2.3
19.7
23.7
15.7
vs Similar (19)
10.8
11.1
10.6
3.7
3.9
3.7
20.6
20.6
20.7
vs Weaker (25)
10.2
9.3
11.4
2.6
3.2
2.1
22.4
22.3
22.4
% over line
57%
55%
60%
34%
36%
32%
45%
45%
45%
% under line
43%
45%
40%
66%
64%
68%
55%
55%
55%
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lask Linz
10.3
Austria Vienna
10.1
WSG Wattens
10.1
Sturm Graz
10.0
TSV Hartberg
9.9
Austria Lustenau
9.8
Wolfsberger AC
9.7
Rapid Vienna
9.6
Red Bull Salzburg
9.4
Grazer AK
9.1
Ried
8.9
SCR Altach
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.0
Austria Lustenau
4.9
Sturm Graz
4.8
Wolfsberger AC
4.7
Ried
4.6
Grazer AK
4.6
TSV Hartberg
4.5
WSG Wattens
4.4
Austria Vienna
4.4
Rapid Vienna
4.2
Lask Linz
3.7
Red Bull Salzburg
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
23.8
Sturm Graz
23.8
Grazer AK
23.3
Austria Lustenau
23.3
SCR Altach
23.0
Austria Vienna
22.9
Wolfsberger AC
22.6
Ried
22.4
WSG Wattens
22.3
TSV Hartberg
21.7
Lask Linz
21.0
Red Bull Salzburg
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sturm Graz or Draw
66.1%
Avg Implied 63.2% · @ 1.49
Edge
+2.9%
37%
29%
34%
covers Sturm Graz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Sturm Graz or Lask Linz
70.9%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.27
Edge
-3.3%
37%
29%
34%
covers Sturm Graz + Lask Linz
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or Lask Linz
63.0%
Avg Implied 62.6% · @ 1.50
Edge
+0.4%
37%
29%
34%
covers Draw + Lask Linz
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5
Over
73.1%
@ 1.22-3.1%
Under
26.9%
@ 3.90+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
1xBet
3.84
Betano
3.80
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5
Over
37.8%
@ 2.10-6.8%
Under
62.2%
@ 1.69+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5
Over
14.6%
@ 4.43-6.4%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.18+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Sturm Graz over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
@ 9.99-4.9%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
9.60
Marathonbet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Lask Linz over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
@ 1.22-4.9%
Under
28.7%
@ 3.90+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Betano
3.85
1xBet
3.75
Lask Linz over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
@ 2.10-9.1%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.69+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Lask Linz over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
@ 4.43-7.9%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.18+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Lask Linz over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
@ 10.04-5.5%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
9.60
Marathonbet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sturm Graz, so a minus line means Sturm Graz give that many goals of a start and Lask Linz receive them. At -1, Sturm Graz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sturm Graz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sturm Graz)
Sturm Graz -2
6.1%
@ 10.33-2.7%
Draw -2
11.1%
@ 7.15-1.5%
Lask Linz +2
82.8%
@ 1.15+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Away
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Sturm Graz)
Sturm Graz -1
17.2%
@ 4.70-1.9%
Draw -1
19.8%
@ 4.32-1.0%
Lask Linz +1
63.0%
@ 1.49+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Away
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Handicap +1 (Sturm Graz)
Sturm Graz +1
66.1%
@ 1.48+5.3%
Draw +1
18.7%
@ 4.36-1.9%
Lask Linz -1
15.2%
@ 4.85-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Away
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Handicap +2 (Sturm Graz)
Sturm Graz +2
84.8%
@ 1.14+5.4%
Draw +2
10.1%
@ 7.50-2.0%
Lask Linz -2
5.1%
@ 10.73-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.00
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
9.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sturm Graz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.21
0.14
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (18)
0.56
0.39
0.25
0.12
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Lask Linz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lask Linz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.33
0.87
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.40
1.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.67
1.20
0.80
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.69
1.43
0.71
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.6%
@ 1.29-2.3%
Under 0.5
30.4%
@ 3.32+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.40
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.39-5.6%
Under 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.52+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 5.43-5.3%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.11+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Betano
5.30
1xBet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.6%
@ 1.89-6.4%
Under
57.4%
@ 1.81+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.8%
@ 5.49-5.2%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.12+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Under
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
@ 15.12-4.1%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Lask Linz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.3%
@ 1.92-1.0%
Under
52.7%
@ 1.79+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Lask Linz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.1%
@ 5.69-5.3%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.11+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Lask Linz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
@ 15.25-3.7%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sturm Graz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.79
0.36
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.11
0.44
0.88
0.25
1.30
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lask Linz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lask Linz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.40
1.13
0.20
1.67
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.58
0.42
1.60
0.00
1.57
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.15
0.86
0.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.17-2.8%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 4.44+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Betano
4.60
Bet365
4.50
William Hil
4.40
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.6%
@ 1.85-7.8%
Under 1.5
57.4%
@ 1.87+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.0%
@ 3.59-8.9%
Under 2.5
83.0%
@ 1.25+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.4%
@ 1.61-7.2%
Under
49.6%
@ 2.19+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.5%
@ 3.96-8.8%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.21+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
@ 9.50-6.5%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Lask Linz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.9%
@ 1.61-6.7%
Under
49.1%
@ 2.19+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.57
Under
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.10
Lask Linz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.2%
@ 3.96-7.1%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.21+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Lask Linz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
@ 9.50-6.3%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+4.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+5.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+4.9%
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+6.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.11
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+5.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.11
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
+5.3%
Under 4.5
88.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+9.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+5.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+7.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.21
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+8.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
85.4%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+6.4%
Home +2 handicap
84.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
+5.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+7.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
+8.9%
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
+4.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-2.8%
Under 3.5
74.4%
1.46
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
+10.8%
Over 1.5
73.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-4.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
73.1%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
-3.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
71.3%
1.22
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
-4.9%
Home or Away
70.9%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-3.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sturm Graz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Seedy Jatta25%
Szymon Włodarczyk17%
Nelson Weiper17%
Belmin Beganović17%
Simon Seidl12%
Emran Soglo12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Jon Gorenc Stanković0%
Gizo Mamageishvili0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Arjan Malić0%
Axel Kayombo0%
Petar Petrović0%
Jacob Hödl0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
Luís Balbo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Gorenc Stanković38%
Albert Vallci29%
Jurgen Heil25%
Ryan Fosso25%
Jeyland Mitchell20%
Axel Kayombo20%
Nelson Weiper17%
Gizo Mamageishvili14%
Luca Weinhandl14%
Simon Seidl12%
Emran Soglo12%
Jacob Hödl12%
Paul Koller0%
Szymon Włodarczyk0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Belmin Beganović0%
Arjan Malić0%
Petar Petrović0%
Luís Balbo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Simon Seidl38%
Jon Gorenc Stanković12%
Emran Soglo12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Szymon Włodarczyk0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Gizo Mamageishvili0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Belmin Beganović0%
Arjan Malić0%
Axel Kayombo0%
Petar Petrović0%
Jacob Hödl0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
Luís Balbo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jacob Hödl25%
Axel Kayombo20%
Szymon Włodarczyk17%
Belmin Beganović17%
Gizo Mamageishvili14%
Simon Seidl12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Jon Gorenc Stanković0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Emran Soglo0%
Arjan Malić0%
Petar Petrović0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
Luís Balbo0%
Lask Linz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samuel Adeniran60%
Florian Flecker50%
C. Lang43%
M. Usor43%
Robert Ljubičić20%
Melayro Bogarde17%
A. Schöpf14%
Andrés Andrade14%
X. Mbuyamba14%
S. Horvath0%
K. Jørgensen0%
George Bello0%
Krystof Daněk0%
Lukas Jungwirth0%
Yvan Dibango0%
Alemão0%
Miguel Freckleton0%
Nael Kane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
X. Mbuyamba43%
Alemão33%
M. Usor29%
Yvan Dibango25%
Samuel Adeniran20%
K. Jørgensen14%
A. Schöpf0%
Andrés Andrade0%
Robert Ljubičić0%
S. Horvath0%
Florian Flecker0%
George Bello0%
Melayro Bogarde0%
Krystof Daněk0%
Lukas Jungwirth0%
C. Lang0%
Miguel Freckleton0%
Nael Kane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Usor43%
Melayro Bogarde33%
S. Horvath29%
Krystof Daněk29%
Florian Flecker25%
Samuel Adeniran20%
Alemão17%
Andrés Andrade14%
K. Jørgensen14%
A. Schöpf0%
Robert Ljubičić0%
X. Mbuyamba0%
George Bello0%
Lukas Jungwirth0%
C. Lang0%
Yvan Dibango0%
Miguel Freckleton0%
Nael Kane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Adeniran60%
K. Jørgensen43%
M. Usor43%
Andrés Andrade29%
C. Lang29%
Alemão17%
Krystof Daněk14%
A. Schöpf0%
Robert Ljubičić0%
S. Horvath0%
Florian Flecker0%
X. Mbuyamba0%
George Bello0%
Melayro Bogarde0%
Lukas Jungwirth0%
Yvan Dibango0%
Miguel Freckleton0%
Nael Kane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
Sturm Graz's squad is €8m more valuable than Lask Linz's (€52m vs €44m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
Sturm Graz's attack is €12m more valuable than Lask Linz's (€26m vs €13m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Sturm Graz's midfield is €3m more valuable than Lask Linz's (€14m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
Sturm Graz's defence is €7m less valuable than Lask Linz's (€13m vs €20m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
WSG Wattens
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
Ried
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna