PythiaFootballBETA
Sturm Graz are favourites to win against Rapid Vienna, with a recent-form note suggesting they're coming off a win. This is a closely contested match, with the home side having a 46% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 25% chance of Rapid Vienna winning away. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.9% chance of occurring.
Sturm Graz have a strong home record, scoring an average of 0.83 goals and conceding 1.0 per game against similar opponents. Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have struggled away from home, scoring 0.71 goals and conceding 2.57 on average against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 (77.4% chance of hitting) and Over 1.5 (70.9% chance of hitting). Sturm Graz have a 46% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 25% chance of Rapid Vienna winning. The model's pick is a Home win.
The win extends Sturm Graz's recent form, coming off a victory over SCR Altach. In a low-scoring affair, the final score was 2-0, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 46%. The model's call was a wise one, given the pre-match favourite's dominance. The model's selections largely came in, with 'Under 3.5' goals hitting at 77.4% probability and 'Over 1.5' goals also hitting at 70.9% probability.
Sturm Graz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.30 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.73 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.00 | 1.09 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.75 | 1.31 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 2.38 | 1.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
Rapid Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.63 | 0.88 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.79 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.83 | 2.06 | 0.91 | 1.73 | 0.71 | 2.57 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.12 | 1.25 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| Rapid Vienna goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Sturm GrazRapid ViennaSturm Graz| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 23.9 | 25.2 | 22.7 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 10.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 31.2 | 34.0 | 28.5 |
| vs Similar (21) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 24.2 | 24.0 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 9.5 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 22.5 | 24.7 | 20.2 |
| % over line | 48% | 52% | 44% | 64% | 56% | 72% | 68% | 76% | 60% |
| % under line | 52% | 48% | 56% | 36% | 44% | 28% | 32% | 24% | 40% |
Rapid Vienna| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 24.5 | 24.0 | 25.1 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 22.6 | 21.0 | 23.7 |
| vs Similar (28) | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 25.5 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 10.9 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 23.8 | 22.7 | 25.0 |
| % over line | 54% | 52% | 57% | 62% | 46% | 79% | 71% | 64% | 78% |
| % under line | 46% | 48% | 43% | 38% | 54% | 21% | 29% | 36% | 22% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | â Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | â Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/08/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/05/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/11/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/08/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 24/04/24 | A | 1-3 |
Sturm Graz| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 2-5 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 2-0 |
Rapid Vienna| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value âŽm | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Lask Linz | 32 | 58 | 53% | 1.8 | 56 | 42 | +14 | 3.1 | 78% | 59% | 41% | 10.6 | 56% | 3.6 | 38% | 20.8 | 41% | 48 | 17 | 8 | 22 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 32 | 56 | 50% | 1.8 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 2.7 | 78% | 41% | 28% | 10.0 | 53% | 5.3 | 75% | 22.5 | 62% | 59 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 32 | 48 | 41% | 1.5 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.0 | 88% | 62% | 38% | 9.2 | 44% | 4.2 | 48% | 20.4 | 31% | 192 | 93 | 40 | 59 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 60% |
| 4 |  Ried | 35 | 48 | 40% | 1.4 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 2.5 | 80% | 49% | 20% | 9.2 | 40% | 4.7 | 74% | 23.1 | 63% | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 5 | Rapid Vienna | 34 | 47 | 38% | 1.4 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 2.4 | 82% | 41% | 15% | 9.8 | 56% | 4.2 | 62% | 23.8 | 68% | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 56% |
| 6 |  Austria Vienna | 32 | 47 | 44% | 1.5 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 3.0 | 81% | 59% | 38% | 9.7 | 44% | 4.1 | 61% | 22.4 | 50% | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 7 |  TSV Hartberg | 32 | 42 | 31% | 1.3 | 40 | 40 | +0 | 2.5 | 62% | 47% | 31% | 9.4 | 44% | 4.4 | 68% | 22.1 | 56% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 39% |
| 8 |  SCR Altach | 32 | 42 | 31% | 1.3 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 2.3 | 69% | 41% | 28% | 8.3 | 25% | 4.9 | 74% | 23.2 | 56% | 12 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 9 |  Wolfsberger AC | 33 | 41 | 33% | 1.2 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 2.6 | 79% | 58% | 30% | 8.9 | 39% | 4.6 | 71% | 23.4 | 64% | 35 | 14 | 3 | 18 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 10 |  WSG Wattens | 32 | 40 | 31% | 1.2 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 2.9 | 81% | 50% | 38% | 9.8 | 44% | 4.2 | 61% | 23.1 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 44% |
| 11 |  Grazer AK | 32 | 37 | 28% | 1.2 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 2.7 | 81% | 59% | 28% | 8.5 | 38% | 4.4 | 61% | 24.4 | 72% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 12 |  FC BW Linz | 32 | 29 | 25% | 0.9 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 2.7 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 8.6 | 28% | 4.8 | 70% | 22.3 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 50% |