Sturm Graz are tipped to win, with a 44% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of a Red Bull Salzburg win. The model expects a modest 2.7 goals in total, most likely settling on a 1-1 scoreline with a 13.3% probability. Sturm Graz, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded. Red Bull Salzburg, on the road, average 1.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded against comparable teams. The match is projected to feature a 75.8% chance of over 1.5 goals, a 74.0% chance of under 25.5 fouls, a 77.6% chance of under 11.5 corners, an 86.4% chance of over 2.5 cards, a 71.6% chance of over 3.5 cards, a 73.2% chance of over 19.5 fouls, and a 72.1% chance of under 3.5. Sturm Graz entered the game after a defeat to Rapid Vienna, while Red Bull Salzburg are riding a four-game winning streak.
Results analysis
Sturm Graz, fresh from a defeat, extended their winning run with a 4-2 home victory over Red Bull Salzburg, who were on a four-game winning streak. The match finished well above the modelās expected total of 2.7 goals. The pre-match favourite was a home win, with a 44% probability, and the modelās call was correct. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 2.5 cards (86.4%) missed, Under 11.5 corners (77.6%) hit, Over 1.5 (75.8%) hit, Under 25.5 fouls (74.0%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (73.2%) missed, Under 3.5 (72.1%) missed, and Over 3.5 cards (71.6%) missed. All figures appear only once.
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Sturm Graz winā Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawā Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg winā Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Sturm Graz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.27
2.12
0.94
1.29
1.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
2.00
1.60
2.60
0.60
1.40
2.60
vs Weaker (16)
1.94
1.12
2.50
1.12
1.38
1.12
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Red Bull Salzburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.30
1.59
1.18
1.08
1.46
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
4.00
0.50
3.50
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (5)
1.40
2.20
1.33
1.67
1.50
3.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.45
0.73
1.83
0.67
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
Sturm Graz goals ↓
Red Bull Salzburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
6.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.3%
13%
7.0%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.2%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.0%
4.6%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sturm Graz goals (down), columns = Red Bull Salzburg goals (across).
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Sturm Graz
1.97
Austria Vienna
1.88
Red Bull Salzburg
1.78
Wolfsberger AC
1.72
Lask Linz
1.71
Rapid Vienna
1.38
TSV Hartberg
1.33
FC BW Linz
1.19
WSG Wattens
0.94
Grazer AK
0.88
Austria Klagenfurt
0.84
SCR Altach
0.81
Sturm Graz is 0.19 points better than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.78).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Sturm Graz
2.06
Wolfsberger AC
1.88
Red Bull Salzburg
1.66
Lask Linz
1.60
Austria Vienna
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.38
TSV Hartberg
1.21
FC BW Linz
1.16
WSG Wattens
1.09
Grazer AK
1.06
Austria Klagenfurt
1.03
SCR Altach
0.91
Sturm Graz is 0.41 goals better than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.66).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Austria Vienna
1.00
Red Bull Salzburg
1.12
Lask Linz
1.14
Wolfsberger AC
1.19
Sturm Graz
1.22
TSV Hartberg
1.27
Rapid Vienna
1.32
FC BW Linz
1.41
SCR Altach
1.44
WSG Wattens
1.56
Grazer AK
1.69
Austria Klagenfurt
2.19
Sturm Graz is 0.09 goals worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.12).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
62%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
57%
Austria Vienna
54%
Sturm Graz
52%
TSV Hartberg
50%
SCR Altach
47%
Wolfsberger AC
46%
WSG Wattens
45%
Austria Klagenfurt
45%
FC BW Linz
41%
Grazer AK
41%
Sturm Graz is 10.8 percentage points worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of average possession (52% vs 62%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sturm Graz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.06
0.25
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.38
1.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Red Bull Salzburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.47
0.41
0.62
0.54
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (22)
0.64
0.18
0.58
0.17
0.70
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sturm Graz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
1.06
0.69
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.20
1.80
0.60
0.80
1.80
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.75
1.00
0.88
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Red Bull Salzburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
1.12
0.76
0.46
0.92
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.40
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (22)
0.82
0.55
1.25
0.50
0.30
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Under 3.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
WW (22)
€7m
FBL (21)
€5m
Sturm Graz's squad is €53m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€52m vs €105m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
Sturm Graz's attack is €22m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€26m vs €47m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
FBL (4)
€1m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
Sturm Graz's midfield is €15m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€14m vs €29m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
FBL (8)
€2m
Sturm Graz's defence is €16m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€13m vs €29m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
Wolfsberger AC
Rapid Vienna
TSV Hartberg
FC BW Linz
WSG Wattens
Grazer AK
Austria Klagenfurt
SCR Altach