Sturm Graz is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting a home win. This is largely due to SCR Altach's struggles away from home, where they tend to concede more goals to stronger opponents. Sturm Graz, on the other hand, has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.14 goals and conceding just 0.71 goals per match.
The model predicts a 65% chance of a home win, 22% chance of a draw, and 13% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 12.2%. SCR Altach's away form is also concerning, as they average just 0.67 goals scored and 1.92 goals conceded per match against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with a suggested selection of Over 1.5 goals, which has an 78.3% probability and a 5% edge. The home win percentage is 65%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 13%.
Results analysis
A tough day for the model's selections, with several missed despite their probabilities. The win extends Sturm Graz's run, coming off a win and having a strong recent form note. The final score was 1-0, a result that aligns with the model's call, which was correct. Sturm Graz was the model's selection, chosen with a pre-match probability of 65%. The model's selection was correct, as the actual result was a home win.
The model's selection, Home win, was chosen with a pre-match probability of 65%. The model's call was correct. The suggested picks included Over 1.5, with a probability of 78.3%, but this selection missed.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Sturm Graz winā Hit
65.3%
Avg Implied 57.2% · @ 1.63
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Dafabet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Drawā Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.86
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.18
BetVictor
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.90
SCR Altach winā Miss
12.7%
Avg Implied 18.6% · @ 5.02
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.37
BetVictor
5.25
Betano
5.20
Dafabet
5.20
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Sturm Graz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.69
1.59
1.24
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.75
1.25
0.50
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.67
0.94
1.14
0.71
2.00
1.09
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (SCR Altach) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SCR Altach
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
1.62
1.00
1.06
1.53
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
1.38
1.50
1.50
0.86
1.29
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.31
1.71
0.57
1.22
1.89
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.3%
@ 1.24+2.9%
Under 1.5
21.7%
@ 3.77-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.16
Betfair
4.10
888Sport
3.90
BetVictor
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.6%
@ 1.79+1.1%
Under 2.5
46.4%
@ 1.99-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Betfair
1.80
SBO
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
SBO
2.06
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.4%
@ 2.94-0.3%
Under 3.5
68.6%
@ 1.36+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
Pinnacle
2.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.6%
@ 1.77-3.8%
No
51.4%
@ 1.95+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.80
1xBet
1.77
No
Betfair
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Betano
2.00
Bet365
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%@ 7.67+6.4%
1-0 ā
11.1%@ 6.73+4.5%
1-1
10.5%@ 6.85+4.0%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.46+3.7%
3-0
8.3%@ 12.04+4.6%
0-0
6.9%@ 10.78+2.7%
3-1
6.6%@ 11.87+2.8%
4-0
4.2%@ 23.43+2.3%
Sturm Graz goals ↓
SCR Altach goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
3.8%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
3
8.3%
6.6%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.2%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sturm Graz goals (down), columns = SCR Altach goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
Sturm Graz is 1.00 points better than SCR Altach in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.60).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
Sturm Graz is 0.40 goals better than SCR Altach in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 0.80).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
Sturm Graz is 0.60 goals better than SCR Altach in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.60).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Sturm Graz is 5.2 percentage points better than SCR Altach in terms of average possession (55% vs 49%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sturm Graz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.31
0.08
0.65
0.65
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.61
0.33
0.43
0.00
0.73
0.55
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (SCR Altach) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SCR Altach
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.69
0.38
0.71
0.47
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
0.69
0.83
0.67
0.71
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.25
0.57
0.14
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SCR Altach over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SCR Altach over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SCR Altach over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sturm Graz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.69
0.62
0.94
0.59
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.06
0.61
0.71
0.71
1.27
0.55
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SCR Altach) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SCR Altach
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.92
0.62
0.35
1.06
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.69
0.67
0.83
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.06
1.14
0.43
0.44
1.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Sturm Graz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sturm Graz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sturm Graz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SCR Altach over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SCR Altach over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SCR Altach over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Over 1.5
78.3%
1.24
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
+2.9%
ā Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
1.25
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
+2.9%
ā Miss
Under 5.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
Sturm Graz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Seedy Jatta25%
Szymon WÅodarczyk17%
Nelson Weiper17%
Belmin BeganoviÄ17%
Simon Seidl12%
Emran Soglo12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Jon Gorenc StankoviÄ0%
Gizo Mamageishvili0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Arjan MaliÄ0%
Axel Kayombo0%
Petar PetroviÄ0%
Jacob Hƶdl0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
LuĆs Balbo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Gorenc StankoviÄ38%
Albert Vallci29%
Jurgen Heil25%
Ryan Fosso25%
Jeyland Mitchell20%
Axel Kayombo20%
Nelson Weiper17%
Gizo Mamageishvili14%
Luca Weinhandl14%
Simon Seidl12%
Emran Soglo12%
Jacob Hƶdl12%
Paul Koller0%
Szymon WÅodarczyk0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Belmin BeganoviÄ0%
Arjan MaliÄ0%
Petar PetroviÄ0%
LuĆs Balbo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Simon Seidl38%
Jon Gorenc StankoviÄ12%
Emran Soglo12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Szymon WÅodarczyk0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Gizo Mamageishvili0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Belmin BeganoviÄ0%
Arjan MaliÄ0%
Axel Kayombo0%
Petar PetroviÄ0%
Jacob Hƶdl0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
LuĆs Balbo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jacob Hƶdl25%
Axel Kayombo20%
Szymon WÅodarczyk17%
Belmin BeganoviÄ17%
Gizo Mamageishvili14%
Simon Seidl12%
Albert Vallci0%
Paul Koller0%
Jurgen Heil0%
Jon Gorenc StankoviÄ0%
Seedy Jatta0%
Daniil Khudyakov0%
Jeyland Mitchell0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Emran Soglo0%
Arjan MaliÄ0%
Petar PetroviÄ0%
Luca Weinhandl0%
LuĆs Balbo0%
SCR Altach
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yann Massombo33%
Patrick Greil20%
Ousmane Diawara20%
Marko Raguž0%
Vesel Demaku0%
Benedikt Zech0%
Mike-Steven BƤhre0%
Lukas JƤger0%
Dejan StojanoviÄ0%
Benjamin Bƶckle0%
SrÄan HrstiÄ0%
Niklas Niehoff0%
Yanis Eisschill0%
Filip Milojevic0%
Erkin Yalcin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Patrick Greil40%
Filip Milojevic40%
Benedikt Zech25%
Vesel Demaku20%
Lukas JƤger20%
Ousmane Diawara20%
Niklas Niehoff20%
Marko Raguž0%
Mike-Steven BƤhre0%
Dejan StojanoviÄ0%
Benjamin Bƶckle0%
Yann Massombo0%
SrÄan HrstiÄ0%
Yanis Eisschill0%
Erkin Yalcin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Niklas Niehoff40%
Benjamin Bƶckle20%
Marko Raguž0%
Patrick Greil0%
Vesel Demaku0%
Benedikt Zech0%
Mike-Steven BƤhre0%
Lukas JƤger0%
Dejan StojanoviÄ0%
Ousmane Diawara0%
Yann Massombo0%
SrÄan HrstiÄ0%
Yanis Eisschill0%
Filip Milojevic0%
Erkin Yalcin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Greil40%
Ousmane Diawara20%
Filip Milojevic20%
Marko Raguž0%
Vesel Demaku0%
Benedikt Zech0%
Mike-Steven BƤhre0%
Lukas JƤger0%
Dejan StojanoviÄ0%
Benjamin Bƶckle0%
Yann Massombo0%
SrÄan HrstiÄ0%
Niklas Niehoff0%
Yanis Eisschill0%
Erkin Yalcin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
Sturm Graz's squad is €43m more valuable than SCR Altach's (€52m vs €9m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
Sturm Graz's attack is €22m more valuable than SCR Altach's (€26m vs €4m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Sturm Graz's midfield is €12m more valuable than SCR Altach's (€14m vs €1m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
Sturm Graz's defence is €9m more valuable than SCR Altach's (€13m vs €4m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
WSG Wattens
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
Ried
Grazer AK
Austria Vienna