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Sudtirol vs Bari Result & Analysis

Date: 22/05/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 0-0
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
Vs
41%
31%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bari
Bari
Italy: Serie B
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Sudtirol a 41% win probability against Bari in the Italy: Serie B on 2026-05-22, with 31% for the draw and 28% for Bari. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (96%), Over 21.5 fouls (91%), Over 23.5 fouls (82%), Under 3.5 (81%).

Results analysis

Sudtirol finished 0-0 against Bari (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 41% home win, 31% draw and 28% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (96%), Over 21.5 fouls (91%), Over 23.5 fouls (82%), Under 3.5 (81%), Over 2.5 cards (81%), Under 11.5 corners (77%), Under 5.5 cards (73%), Over 25.5 fouls (70%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sudtirol win✗ Miss
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bari win✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SudtirolSudtirol

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D23L13L11D11D16L03L01L11D00DH·PES15/03A·AVE18/03H·FRO22/03A·CES06/04H·MOD11/04A·SPE18/04H·MAN25/04A·SAM01/05H·JUV08/05A·BAR15/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.200.861.000.881.38
vs Stronger (6)0.831.501.001.250.502.00
vs Similar (24)0.881.120.800.900.931.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BariBari

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W12L03L31W02L03L02L20W32W00DH·REG14/03A·FRO18/03H·CAR22/03H·MOD06/04A·MON11/04H·VEN18/04A·AVE24/04H·VIR01/05A·CAT08/05H·SUD15/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.501.121.380.791.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.811.590.861.500.771.69
vs Weaker (3)2.330.673.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.6%
Under 1.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.5%
Under 2.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
1-0
12.2%
0-0 ✓
12.1%
0-1
9.2%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
5.1%
Sudtirol goals ↓
Bari goals →
01234
012%9.2%5.1%1.7%0.4%
112%14%6.4%2.1%0.5%
28.4%8.2%4.0%1.3%0.3%
33.5%3.4%1.7%0.5%0.1%
41.1%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sudtirol goals (down), columns = Bari goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Venezia
2.16
Frosinone
2.13
Monza
1.98
Palermo
1.88
Catanzaro
1.58
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Cesena
1.21
Padova
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Bari
1.05
Reggiana
0.97
Spezia
0.92
Pescara
0.92
Sudtirol is 0.02 points better than Bari in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.05).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Venezia
2.03
Frosinone
2.00
Catanzaro
1.63
Monza
1.60
Palermo
1.57
Pescara
1.34
Modena
1.26
Carrarese
1.24
Empoli
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Spezia
1.13
Avellino
1.10
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Bari
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Reggiana
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Sudtirol and Bari are level in goals scored per game (both 0.95).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Venezia
0.82
Monza
0.88
Frosinone
0.89
Palermo
0.90
Modena
0.95
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Cesena
1.47
Reggiana
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Bari
1.50
Mantova
1.50
Spezia
1.55
Pescara
1.74
Sudtirol is 0.30 goals better than Bari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Venezia
64%
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Monza
52%
Pescara
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Frosinone
50%
Palermo
49%
Spezia
48%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Bari
46%
Reggiana
41%
Sudtirol
41%
Sudtirol is 5.2 percentage points worse than Bari in terms of average possession (41% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

SudtirolSudtirol

For 3.7 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.6

🚩 Corners

160148224223379643422355106461610748A·BARH·JUVA·SAMH·MANA·SPEH·MODA·CESH·FROA·AVEH·PES
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.7

🟨 Cards

1102412221211326656161432238117A·BARH·JUVA·SAMH·MANA·SPEH·MODA·CESH·FROA·AVEH·PES
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 13.9 · Total 30.8

⚠️ Fouls

42017171172115151213161212171018222814171434183627292427404231A·BARH·JUVA·SAMH·MANA·SPEH·MODA·CESH·FROA·AVEH·PES
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BariBari

For 3.4 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.7

🚩 Corners

180418144843174712611138585127811181211H·SUDA·CATH·VIRA·AVEH·VENA·MONH·MODH·CARA·FROH·REG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1

🟨 Cards

7042113422121221232246274134356H·SUDA·CATH·VIRA·AVEH·VENA·MONH·MODH·CARA·FROH·REG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 13.4 · Total 24.8

⚠️ Fouls

34017171213151313131913982141110515111834252826321716212029H·SUDA·CATH·VIRA·AVEH·VENA·MONH·MODH·CARA·FROH·REG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

SudtirolSudtirol

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.59.47.64.34.54.030.429.231.5
vs Stronger (9)7.07.86.44.04.83.430.231.529.2
vs Similar (39)8.69.67.54.24.24.330.228.432.1
vs Weaker (2)13.513.014.06.511.02.035.037.033.0
% over line32%48%16%58%56%60%92%88%96%
% under line68%52%84%42%44%40%8%12%4%
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BariBari

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.89.54.64.84.527.928.427.3
vs Stronger (1)9.0-9.06.0-6.031.0-31.0
vs Similar (41)9.99.710.04.54.84.127.728.726.6
vs Weaker (8)8.810.57.05.44.86.028.527.030.0
% over line54%64%44%64%68%60%82%88%76%
% under line46%36%56%36%32%40%18%12%24%
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Pescara
10.6
Carrarese
10.4
Virtus Entella
10.1
Padova
10.1
Frosinone
10.0
Spezia
9.8
Bari
9.7
Empoli
9.5
Mantova
9.5
Palermo
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Reggiana
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Avellino
9.1
Juve Stabia
9.0
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Modena
8.8
Sudtirol
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Spezia
5.4
Carrarese
5.2
Mantova
5.2
Sampdoria
5.1
Pescara
5.0
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.9
Catanzaro
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.8
Reggiana
4.8
Modena
4.7
Bari
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Virtus Entella
4.4
Monza
4.4
Sudtirol
4.3
Venezia
4.3
Cesena
4.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.8
Spezia
32.3
Avellino
31.2
Pescara
31.0
Catanzaro
30.5
Sudtirol
30.4
Frosinone
30.3
Juve Stabia
30.2
Empoli
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Venezia
29.8
Reggiana
29.2
Padova
29.2
Modena
28.7
Palermo
28.3
Carrarese
28.2
Bari
27.9
Monza
27.6
Cesena
26.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.0%
Under 9.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.0%
Under 3.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.9%
Under 21.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SudtirolSudtirol

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L01L11D01L13L02L01L01L00DH·PES15/03A·AVE18/03H·FRO22/03A·CES06/04H·MOD11/04A·SPE18/04H·MAN25/04A·SAM01/05H·JUV08/05A·BAR15/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.700.360.570.310.81
vs Stronger (6)0.330.830.500.500.001.50
vs Similar (24)0.330.670.300.600.360.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BariBari

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D00D20W00D02L00D10W21W00DH·REG14/03A·FRO18/03H·CAR22/03H·MOD06/04A·MON11/04H·VEN18/04A·AVE24/04H·VIR01/05A·CAT08/05H·SUD15/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.500.560.500.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.410.590.360.640.460.54
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls96.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls90.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls82.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.581.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards80.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners76.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards73.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls70.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (30)
€79m
FRO (40)
€55m
MON (34)
€49m
CAT (38)
€46m
SAM (33)
€41m
MOD (35)
€36m
EMP (38)
€36m
PAL (27)
€35m
SPE (40)
€34m
JS (39)
€34m
CES (32)
€28m
REG (43)
€26m
MAN (34)
€25m
CAR (33)
€25m
PES (43)
€22m
AVE (34)
€21m
SUD (33)
€20m
PAD (35)
€20m
BAR (28)
€18m
VE (44)
€16m
Sudtirol's squad is €2m more valuable than Bari's (€20m vs €18m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAT (18)
€25m
FRO (14)
€22m
MON (11)
€17m
EMP (14)
€15m
VEN (6)
€15m
CES (9)
€15m
SAM (9)
€14m
MOD (8)
€9m
MAN (10)
€9m
BAR (11)
€9m
CAR (8)
€7m
SPE (6)
€7m
PAL (3)
€7m
PES (13)
€6m
JS (9)
€6m
AVE (11)
€5m
VE (13)
€5m
REG (12)
€5m
PAD (10)
€4m
SUD (7)
€3m
Sudtirol's attack is €6m less valuable than Bari's (€3m vs €9m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (10)
€35m
SPE (16)
€16m
JS (13)
€16m
PAL (11)
€16m
MON (8)
€13m
FRO (8)
€12m
CAT (5)
€12m
MOD (12)
€11m
PES (12)
€10m
EMP (8)
€7m
VE (13)
€7m
PAD (11)
€7m
AVE (7)
€6m
CAR (11)
€6m
SUD (10)
€5m
SAM (8)
€5m
BAR (7)
€5m
REG (11)
€4m
MAN (6)
€4m
CES (8)
€4m
Sudtirol and Bari have a similar midfield value (both €5m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (14)
€28m
SAM (16)
€22m
FRO (18)
€21m
MON (15)
€20m
REG (20)
€17m
MOD (15)
€16m
EMP (16)
€13m
JS (17)
€12m
PAL (13)
€12m
MAN (18)
€12m
SUD (16)
€12m
CAR (14)
€11m
SPE (18)
€11m
CES (15)
€10m
CAT (15)
€9m
AVE (16)
€9m
PAD (14)
€9m
PES (18)
€6m
BAR (10)
€4m
VE (18)
€4m
Sudtirol's defence is €7m more valuable than Bari's (€12m vs €4m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Sudtirol vs Bari · H/A from SUD
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26ABari Vs SUD0-0
15/02/26ABari Vs SUD1-2
13/12/25HSUD Vs Bari0-0
13/05/25HSUD Vs Bari0-0
21/12/24ABari Vs SUD0-1
24/02/24HSUD Vs Bari1-0
09/12/23ABari Vs SUD2-1
02/06/23ABari Vs SUD1-0

SudtirolSudtirol

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26ABari Vs SUD0-0
08/05/26HSUD Vs Juve Stabia1-1
01/05/26ASampdoria Vs SUD1-0
25/04/26HSUD Vs Mantova0-3
18/04/26ASpezia Vs SUD6-1
11/04/26HSUD Vs Modena1-1
06/04/26ACesena Vs SUD1-1
22/03/26HSUD Vs Frosinone1-3
18/03/26AAvellino Vs SUD3-2
15/03/26HSUD Vs Pescara0-0

BariBari

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26HBAR Vs Sudtirol0-0
08/05/26ACatanzaro Vs BAR2-3
01/05/26HBAR Vs Virtus Entella2-0
24/04/26AAvellino Vs BAR2-0
18/04/26HBAR Vs Venezia0-3
11/04/26AMonza Vs BAR2-0
06/04/26HBAR Vs Modena3-1
22/03/26HBAR Vs Carrarese0-3
18/03/26AFrosinone Vs BAR2-1
14/03/26HBAR Vs Reggiana4-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Sudtirol
Sudtirol
Italy: Serie B
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDD1.18
HomeDLDLD1.28
AwayLDLLD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%28%20%
AVG goals2.382.122.64
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %42%40%44%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored1.141.081.20
Conceded1.241.041.44
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners8.509.447.56
Cards4.354.524.17
Bari
Bari
Italy: Serie B
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.04
HomeLWLWD1.40
AwayLLLLW0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%36%12%
AVG goals2.462.282.64
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %20%12%28%
Scored0.981.120.84
Conceded1.481.161.80
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners9.669.849.48
Cards4.644.804.48

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MonzaMonza4283
57%
2.0
6737+30
2.5
74%
48%
21%
9.1
40%
4.5
63%
27.9
88%
49
1713201.60.9
52%
2VeneziaVenezia3882
63%
2.2
7731+46
2.8
89%
58%
32%
9.2
47%
4.4
71%
30.2
92%
79
1535282.00.8
64%
3FrosinoneFrosinone3881
61%
2.1
7634+42
2.9
84%
61%
37%
10.2
61%
4.9
76%
30.5
97%
55
2212212.00.9
50%
4PalermoPalermo4075
52%
1.9
6336+27
2.5
75%
45%
20%
9.5
50%
5.0
74%
28.3
90%
35
716121.60.9
49%
5CatanzaroCatanzaro4368
42%
1.6
7055+15
2.9
84%
53%
37%
8.7
42%
4.9
65%
30.4
100%
46
251291.61.3
54%
6ModenaModena3955
38%
1.4
4937+12
2.2
74%
49%
10%
9.3
44%
4.6
66%
29.3
90%
36
911161.30.9
50%
7Juve StabiaJuve Stabia4155
29%
1.3
4849-1
2.4
73%
44%
24%
8.8
29%
5.0
74%
29.5
95%
34
616121.21.2
53%
8AvellinoAvellino3949
33%
1.3
4358-15
2.6
77%
46%
23%
9.3
51%
5.0
69%
30.8
97%
21
5691.11.5
50%
9PadovaPadova3846
32%
1.2
3949-10
2.3
61%
39%
21%
9.8
53%
4.8
74%
28.6
97%
20
4791.01.3
48%
10CesenaCesena3846
32%
1.2
4556-11
2.7
79%
53%
29%
9.4
47%
4.1
58%
25.4
82%
28
154101.21.5
50%
11MantovaMantova3846
34%
1.2
4557-12
2.7
71%
53%
26%
9.8
50%
5.3
82%
32.3
100%
25
94121.21.5
57%
12CarrareseCarrarese3844
26%
1.2
4752-5
2.6
74%
50%
29%
10.5
68%
5.1
71%
28.5
87%
25
76111.21.4
51%
13SampdoriaSampdoria3844
29%
1.2
3548-13
2.2
63%
39%
16%
9.2
39%
4.8
70%
32.2
92%
41
145220.91.3
51%
14SudtirolSudtirol4043
20%
1.1
3848-10
2.1
68%
38%
18%
8.2
30%
4.0
54%
30.8
95%
20
35120.91.2
41%
15Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella3842
26%
1.1
3651-15
2.3
74%
37%
18%
9.9
63%
4.4
62%
29.5
95%
16
5740.91.3
46%
16BariBari4042
25%
1.1
3860-22
2.5
78%
50%
20%
9.4
50%
4.7
65%
29.0
85%
18
9540.91.5
46%
17EmpoliEmpoli3841
24%
1.1
4754-7
2.7
76%
47%
32%
10.0
55%
4.5
76%
30.4
92%
36
157131.21.4
48%
18ReggianaReggiana3837
24%
1.0
3656-20
2.4
68%
47%
26%
9.4
42%
4.5
66%
29.4
92%
26
54170.91.5
41%
19PescaraPescara3835
18%
0.9
5166-15
3.1
89%
63%
39%
10.5
63%
5.1
76%
31.3
95%
22
61061.31.7
51%
20SpeziaSpezia3835
21%
0.9
4359-16
2.7
76%
45%
29%
9.9
53%
5.4
82%
31.5
100%
34
716111.11.6
48%
Italy: Serie B 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →

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