PythiaFootballBETA
In the Italy: Serie B match between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia on May 8, 2026, recent form suggests a closely contested draw, as both teams have been experiencing inconsistent results. Sudtirol has been coming off a draw against Bari, while Juve Stabia suffered a defeat to Monza. However, their defensive numbers tell a different story, with Sudtirol conceding 0.9 goals per match at home and Juve Stabia conceding 1.42 goals per match away to opponents of similar strength.
The model predicts a home win, with a 37% probability, a draw at 32%, and an away win at 31%. The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 14.7%. Sudtirol has scored 0.7 goals per match at home, while Juve Stabia has scored 0.75 goals per match away to similar opponents. The model's selections include Under 3.5 cards at 81.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 95.3%, and Over 3.5 cards at 71.1%.
Home win percentage is 37%, draw percentage is 32%, and away win percentage is 31%.
The draw between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia extends Sudtirol's run of draws, following a previous draw against Bari. The final score was 1-1. In a major upset, the pre-match favourite, Sudtirol, did not come through, with the model's selection of Home win being incorrect. The model's call was wrong as it had predicted Sudtirol to win. The model's selection of Home win had a pre-match probability of 37%. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Under 3.5 had a probability of 81.8% and HIT, while Over 21.5 fouls had a probability of 95.3% and MISSED. Over 3.5 cards had a probability of 71.1% and MISSED.
Sudtirol| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.23 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.83 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.88 | 1.17 | 0.70 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Juve Stabia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.44 | 0.88 | 0.86 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.36 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Juve Stabia goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 10% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11% | 15% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
SudtirolJuve StabiaSudtirol| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 30.5 | 30.0 | 31.0 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 7.0 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 30.2 | 31.5 | 29.2 |
| vs Similar (39) | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 30.4 | 29.4 | 31.4 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 13.5 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 35.0 | 37.0 | 33.0 |
| % over line | 34% | 48% | 20% | 58% | 60% | 56% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| % under line | 66% | 52% | 80% | 42% | 40% | 44% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
Juve Stabia| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 31.3 | 31.3 | 31.3 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 8.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 30.5 | 25.0 | 36.0 |
| vs Similar (42) | 9.6 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 31.3 | 31.4 | 31.1 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 31.7 | 32.3 | 31.0 |
| % over line | 38% | 46% | 29% | 68% | 62% | 75% | 98% | 100% | 96% |
| % under line | 62% | 54% | 71% | 32% | 38% | 25% | 2% | 0% | 4% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 94.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 70.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 27/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 06/12/24 | A | 2-1 |
Sudtirol| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/03/26 | A | 0-4 |
Juve Stabia| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Monza | 42 | 83 | 57% | 2.0 | 67 | 37 | +30 | 2.5 | 74% | 48% | 21% | 9.1 | 40% | 4.5 | 63% | 27.9 | 88% | 49 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 2 |  Venezia | 38 | 82 | 63% | 2.2 | 77 | 31 | +46 | 2.8 | 89% | 58% | 32% | 9.2 | 47% | 4.4 | 71% | 30.2 | 92% | 79 | 15 | 35 | 28 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 64% |
| 3 |  Frosinone | 38 | 81 | 61% | 2.1 | 76 | 34 | +42 | 2.9 | 84% | 61% | 37% | 10.2 | 61% | 4.9 | 76% | 30.5 | 97% | 55 | 22 | 12 | 21 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 4 |  Palermo | 40 | 75 | 52% | 1.9 | 63 | 36 | +27 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 20% | 9.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 74% | 28.3 | 90% | 35 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 5 |  Catanzaro | 43 | 68 | 42% | 1.6 | 70 | 55 | +15 | 2.9 | 84% | 53% | 37% | 8.7 | 42% | 4.9 | 65% | 30.4 | 100% | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 6 |  Modena | 39 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 49 | 37 | +12 | 2.2 | 74% | 49% | 10% | 9.3 | 44% | 4.6 | 66% | 29.3 | 90% | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 41 | 55 | 29% | 1.3 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 2.4 | 73% | 44% | 24% | 8.8 | 29% | 5.0 | 74% | 29.5 | 95% | 34 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 8 |  Avellino | 39 | 49 | 33% | 1.3 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.6 | 77% | 46% | 23% | 9.3 | 51% | 5.0 | 69% | 30.8 | 97% | 21 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 |  Padova | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.3 | 61% | 39% | 21% | 9.8 | 53% | 4.8 | 74% | 28.6 | 97% | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 10 |  Cesena | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 2.7 | 79% | 53% | 29% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.1 | 58% | 25.4 | 82% | 28 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 11 |  Mantova | 38 | 46 | 34% | 1.2 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 2.7 | 71% | 53% | 26% | 9.8 | 50% | 5.3 | 82% | 32.3 | 100% | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 57% |
| 12 |  Carrarese | 38 | 44 | 26% | 1.2 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 2.6 | 74% | 50% | 29% | 10.5 | 68% | 5.1 | 71% | 28.5 | 87% | 25 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 13 |  Sampdoria | 38 | 44 | 29% | 1.2 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 2.2 | 63% | 39% | 16% | 9.2 | 39% | 4.8 | 70% | 32.2 | 92% | 41 | 14 | 5 | 22 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 14 | Sudtirol | 40 | 43 | 20% | 1.1 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 2.1 | 68% | 38% | 18% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 30.8 | 95% | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 15 |  Virtus Entella | 38 | 42 | 26% | 1.1 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 2.3 | 74% | 37% | 18% | 9.9 | 63% | 4.4 | 62% | 29.5 | 95% | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 16 |  Bari | 40 | 42 | 25% | 1.1 | 38 | 60 | -22 | 2.5 | 78% | 50% | 20% | 9.4 | 50% | 4.7 | 65% | 29.0 | 85% | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 17 |  Empoli | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 2.7 | 76% | 47% | 32% | 10.0 | 55% | 4.5 | 76% | 30.4 | 92% | 36 | 15 | 7 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 18 |  Reggiana | 38 | 37 | 24% | 1.0 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 2.4 | 68% | 47% | 26% | 9.4 | 42% | 4.5 | 66% | 29.4 | 92% | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 41% |
| 19 |  Pescara | 38 | 35 | 18% | 0.9 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 3.1 | 89% | 63% | 39% | 10.5 | 63% | 5.1 | 76% | 31.3 | 95% | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 51% |
| 20 |  Spezia | 38 | 35 | 21% | 0.9 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 2.7 | 76% | 45% | 29% | 9.9 | 53% | 5.4 | 82% | 31.5 | 100% | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 48% |