Arsenal are tipped to win the match, with the model picking an away victory at 52%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1, a 13.8% chance. Sunderland’s home form shows they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against stronger opposition, while Arsenal’s away form is stronger, scoring 1.82 and conceding 0.82 against weaker sides. The home win probability is 19%, a draw 29%, and an away win 52%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Under 6.5 (99.4% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.2% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (97.9% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 goals (97.5% with a 4% edge), and Away +2 handicap (96.2% with a 3% edge). The match is likely to see Arsenal edge out Sunderland in a low-scoring game.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sunderland win
19.7%
Avg Implied 14.2% · @ 6.61
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.21
Marathonbet
7.10
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Pinnacle
6.60
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.11
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.36
Dafabet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.24
Betfair
4.20
Arsenal win
50.7%
Avg Implied 62.9% · @ 1.50
Edge
-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.54
Unibet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
10Bet
1.51
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sunderland
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.32
1.00
1.10
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.67
1.80
0.47
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.78
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
2.05
0.62
2.30
0.40
1.82
0.82
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.30-5.5%
Under 1.5
33.7%
@ 3.32+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
BetVictor
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.37
10Bet
3.35
Betano
3.30
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.3%
@ 1.98-9.5%
Under 2.5
61.7%
@ 1.82+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.06
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.87
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.5%
@ 3.42-8.9%
Under 3.5
81.5%
@ 1.29+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.49
1xBet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Both teams to score
Yes
42.9%
@ 2.06-2.2%
No
57.1%
@ 1.69+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.07
No
Unibet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.2%@ 5.60+6.3%
1-1
13.5%@ 7.37+7.5%
0-0
12.1%@ 9.71+7.5%
0-2
11.0%@ 6.13+3.8%
1-2
8.8%@ 7.88+3.1%
1-0
7.4%@ 13.42+4.1%
0-3
5.2%@ 9.68+0.6%
2-1
4.9%@ 18.47+2.5%
Sunderland goals ↓
Arsenal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
14%
11%
5.2%
1.9%
1
7.4%
14%
8.8%
4.2%
1.5%
2
3.4%
4.9%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
3
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sunderland goals (down), columns = Arsenal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Sunderland is 0.82 points worse than Arsenal in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 2.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Sunderland is 0.76 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Sunderland is 0.55 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Sunderland is 10.7 percentage points worse than Arsenal in terms of average possession (45% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sunderland
For 4.2 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal
For 4.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.2 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sunderland
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
9.0
3.9
3.8
4.0
22.4
22.0
22.8
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
10.0
9.5
2.5
2.8
2.2
21.6
23.0
20.2
vs Similar (34)
8.7
8.7
8.6
4.3
4.4
4.2
22.8
22.1
23.5
vs Weaker (8)
11.0
12.3
10.0
3.8
2.8
4.8
21.6
20.3
22.5
% over line
46%
48%
44%
52%
46%
58%
62%
61%
64%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
48%
54%
42%
38%
39%
36%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.0
9.4
3.0
2.5
3.5
21.6
22.0
21.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
9.8
8.6
11.2
2.7
2.2
3.4
22.2
21.9
22.7
vs Weaker (33)
9.0
9.1
8.8
3.1
2.7
3.5
21.3
22.0
20.8
% over line
45%
43%
48%
44%
40%
48%
55%
62%
48%
% under line
55%
57%
52%
56%
60%
52%
45%
38%
52%
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.8%
@ 1.63-9.5%
Under 9.5
53.2%
@ 2.10+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.63
Under
Unibet
2.10
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.3%
Under 3.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.7%
Under 21.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sunderland or Draw
42.6%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.52
Edge
+5.3%
20%
30%
51%
covers Sunderland + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.64
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Betano
2.55
Sunderland or Arsenal
71.6%
Avg Implied 77.7% · @ 1.21
Edge
-6.1%
20%
30%
51%
covers Sunderland + Arsenal
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Draw or Arsenal
85.8%
Avg Implied 85.0% · @ 1.11
Edge
+0.8%
20%
30%
51%
covers Draw + Arsenal
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sunderland over/under 0.5
Over
46.0%
@ 1.79-6.0%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.93+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Sunderland over/under 1.5
Over
12.7%
@ 4.99-6.0%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.15+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Sunderland over/under 2.5
Over
2.5%
@ 14.62-4.1%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Sunderland over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
@ 51.00-99.6%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 0.5
Over
77.5%
@ 1.13-4.6%
Under
22.5%
@ 5.19+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Under
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Arsenal over/under 1.5
Over
43.9%
@ 1.70-11.3%
Under
56.1%
@ 2.09+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Arsenal over/under 2.5
Over
18.9%
@ 3.20-10.2%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.31+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Betfair
3.20
Under
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Arsenal over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
@ 6.80-7.3%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.08+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sunderland, so a minus line means Sunderland give that many goals of a start and Arsenal receive them. At -1, Sunderland must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sunderland win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sunderland)
Sunderland -2
0.7%
@ 63.50-0.8%
Draw -2
3.1%
@ 21.00-1.4%
Arsenal +2
96.2%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
76.00
Bet365
51.00
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
Away
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Handicap -1 (Sunderland)
Sunderland -1
3.8%
@ 14.60-2.3%
Draw -1
10.4%
@ 6.82-2.7%
Arsenal +1
85.8%
@ 1.10+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Handicap +1 (Sunderland)
Sunderland +1
42.6%
@ 2.54+7.1%
Draw +1
26.7%
@ 3.36-0.1%
Arsenal -1
30.7%
@ 2.40-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.38
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.20
Away
Unibet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.41
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Handicap +2 (Sunderland)
Sunderland +2
69.3%
@ 1.50+9.6%
Draw +2
18.2%
@ 4.29-2.7%
Arsenal -2
12.5%
@ 4.59-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.46
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sunderland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.38
0.38
0.35
0.82
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.68
0.40
0.50
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.20
1.27
0.20
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.40
0.20
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.14
0.19
1.70
0.20
0.64
0.18
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.0%
@ 1.40-1.0%
Under 0.5
34.0%
@ 2.83+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Under
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.91
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.1%
@ 2.84+0.3%
Under 1.5
66.9%
@ 1.39-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.98
Pinnacle
2.96
Betfair
2.88
Under
10Bet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 7.56-1.3%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.07+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
William Hil
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sunderland over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.4%
@ 3.24+3.7%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.30-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.54
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Betano
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Sunderland over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.9%
@ 10.00-3.4%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Sunderland over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.0%
@ 1.65-1.3%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.12+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Under
10Bet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Unibet
2.08
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.9%
@ 4.28-6.6%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.18+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.33
Betano
4.30
10Bet
3.95
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
@ 9.75-5.7%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sunderland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.54
0.62
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.60
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
0.43
0.60
0.20
1.18
0.64
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.25+0.9%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.71-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
1xBet
3.84
Marathonbet
3.84
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.1%
@ 2.20-0.6%
Under 1.5
57.9%
@ 1.64+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.4%
@ 4.86-2.0%
Under 2.5
82.6%
@ 1.17+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.95
10Bet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sunderland over/under 0.5 2H
Over
36.4%
@ 2.62+0.9%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.44-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.69
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
Sunderland over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.8%
@ 10.00-1.8%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.06+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Sunderland over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 14.00-4.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.8%
@ 1.47+1.2%
Under
35.2%
@ 2.56-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.55
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.1%
@ 3.20-0.9%
Under
71.9%
@ 1.31+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.6%
@ 7.75-4.3%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.05+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.50
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Under 5.5
97.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+5.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away +2 handicap
96.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
Under 4.5
93.7%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.06
+7.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+7.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
92.2%
1.06
Betano
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+1.3%
Home under 1.5 goals
87.3%
1.15
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+6.0%
Draw or Away
85.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+0.8%
Away +1 handicap
85.8%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+5.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.1%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
+6.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+2.0%
Under 3.5
81.5%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
+8.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
81.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
+10.2%
Under 5.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.5%
1.13
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
-4.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
1.45
Unibet
1.45
-
-
-
-
+12.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+0.9%
Over 2.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.9%
1.31
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
-
+0.9%
Home or Away
71.6%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
-6.1%
Over 19.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sunderland · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marc Guiu33%
Brian Brobbey22%
Wilson Isidor17%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Habib Diarra14%
Chemsdine Talbi13%
Eliezer Mayenda9%
Nordi Mukiele9%
Bertrand Traoré8%
Simon Adingra7%
Daniel Ballard6%
Trai Hume5%
Chris Rigg5%
Omar Alderete3%
Granit Xhaka3%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Luke O'Nien0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Romaine Mundle0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Nilson Angulo0%
Noah Sadiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Masuaku50%
Noah Sadiki31%
Reinildo Mandava28%
Trai Hume28%
Habib Diarra27%
Granit Xhaka25%
Dan Neil25%
Melker Ellborg25%
Dennis Cirkin20%
Brian Brobbey19%
Omar Alderete18%
Nordi Mukiele17%
Daniel Ballard16%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Luke O'Nien13%
Simon Adingra13%
Nilson Angulo11%
Robin Roefs11%
Bertrand Traoré8%
Lutsharel Geertruida7%
Romaine Mundle6%
Wilson Isidor6%
Chris Rigg5%
Jenson Seelt0%
Chemsdine Talbi0%
Eliezer Mayenda0%
Marc Guiu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Granit Xhaka17%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Habib Diarra9%
Nordi Mukiele9%
Luke O'Nien7%
Chris Rigg5%
Eliezer Mayenda4%
Reinildo Mandava4%
Chemsdine Talbi3%
Brian Brobbey3%
Omar Alderete3%
Noah Sadiki3%
Trai Hume2%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Daniel Ballard0%
Wilson Isidor0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Romaine Mundle0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Simon Adingra0%
Nilson Angulo0%
Marc Guiu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marc Guiu33%
Habib Diarra14%
Romaine Mundle12%
Nilson Angulo11%
Daniel Ballard6%
Brian Brobbey6%
Omar Alderete6%
Wilson Isidor6%
Eliezer Mayenda4%
Chemsdine Talbi3%
Trai Hume2%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Nordi Mukiele0%
Granit Xhaka0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Luke O'Nien0%
Enzo Le Fée0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Simon Adingra0%
Chris Rigg0%
Noah Sadiki0%
Arsenal · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Gyökeres30%
Kai Havertz26%
Bukayo Saka22%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Gabriel Martinelli17%
Leandro Trossard16%
Mikel Merino15%
Noni Madueke14%
Eberechi Eze14%
Martín Zubimendi9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Magalhães8%
Max Dowman8%
Declan Rice7%
Jurriën Timber7%
Ben White3%
Martin Ødegaard3%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Piero Hincapié3%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kepa Arrizabalaga36%
Riccardo Calafiori19%
Martín Zubimendi14%
Cristhian Mosquera14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Myles Lewis-Skelly14%
Declan Rice13%
Mikel Merino12%
Gabriel Jesus11%
Viktor Gyökeres11%
Ben White10%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Kai Havertz9%
Piero Hincapié8%
Bukayo Saka6%
Leandro Trossard6%
William Saliba6%
Eberechi Eze4%
Noni Madueke2%
David Raya2%
Martin Ødegaard0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kai Havertz22%
Leandro Trossard20%
Martin Ødegaard19%
Declan Rice15%
Bukayo Saka14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Gabriel Martinelli13%
Myles Lewis-Skelly11%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Mikel Merino9%
Eberechi Eze8%
Ben White7%
Viktor Gyökeres6%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Piero Hincapié5%
Noni Madueke5%
Gabriel Jesus4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Gyökeres24%
Bukayo Saka18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Eberechi Eze16%
Max Dowman15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Mikel Merino12%
Noni Madueke10%
Kai Havertz9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Martinelli8%
Martin Ødegaard6%
Jurriën Timber5%
Declan Rice4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Piero Hincapié0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Sunderland's squad is €1014m less valuable than Arsenal's (€392m vs €1406m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Sunderland's attack is €451m less valuable than Arsenal's (€157m vs €608m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Sunderland's midfield is €180m less valuable than Arsenal's (€110m vs €290m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Sunderland's defence is €383m less valuable than Arsenal's (€125m vs €508m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham