This Premier League match between Sunderland and Chelsea is finely balanced, with Sunderland's recent 2-game winning run against Chelsea a significant storyline. Sunderland's home form is modest at best, scoring 0.67 goals on average while conceding 1.0 against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Chelsea's away form is equally unimpressive, scoring 1.25 goals on average while conceding 1.88 against weaker opponents. The model predicts a 38% chance of an away win, with Chelsea's away form expected to shine. The predicted match result is an away win, with a 32% chance of a Sunderland home win and 30% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a 14.2% probability. The model's selections include Under 3.5 (77%), Over 3.5 cards (72%), and Over 1.5 (72%).
Results analysis
Sunderland's 2-1 win over Chelsea was a major upset, as the Black Cats snapped a 2-game losing streak at home. The win extends their run of 2 consecutive home victories. This result came as a surprise, as Chelsea was the pre-match favourite with a 38% chance of winning, but the model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, but it did correctly predict the Under 3.5 goal total, which hit at 76.7%. The model also correctly predicted the Over 3.5 cards, which hit at 72.0%, and the Over 1.5 goals, which hit at 71.7%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sunderland win✓ Hit
31.8%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.39
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.65
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chelsea win✗ Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied 46.4% · @ 2.03
Edge
-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sunderland
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.37
1.13
1.13
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.57
0.67
1.00
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.44
1.00
1.56
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.60
2.00
0.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.70
1.20
1.47
1.53
1.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.50
0.33
2.33
1.33
2.67
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.43
1.00
1.33
2.25
1.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
1.53
1.56
1.22
1.25
1.88
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.5%
@ 1.71-10.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
@ 2.09+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.9%
0-1
9.8%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-1 ✓
7.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
5.8%
Sunderland goals ↓
Chelsea goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
9.8%
7.2%
3.1%
1.0%
1
8.7%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.2%
2
5.8%
7.5%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.2%
2.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sunderland goals (down), columns = Chelsea goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Sunderland is 0.05 points better than Chelsea in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Sunderland is 0.42 goals worse than Chelsea in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Sunderland is 0.11 goals better than Chelsea in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Sunderland is 12.3 percentage points worse than Chelsea in terms of average possession (45% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sunderland
For 3.9 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelsea
For 6.0 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sunderland
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.7
9.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
22.3
22.3
22.2
vs Stronger (7)
9.1
8.7
9.5
2.1
2.0
2.2
20.0
19.7
20.2
vs Similar (25)
9.5
9.9
9.1
4.8
4.8
4.7
22.6
22.3
22.9
vs Weaker (18)
8.0
7.3
8.9
3.9
4.0
3.9
22.7
23.1
22.1
% over line
40%
36%
44%
56%
52%
60%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
60%
64%
56%
44%
48%
40%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.6
9.2
4.5
4.8
4.2
23.2
23.1
23.3
vs Stronger (9)
9.3
9.2
9.5
4.7
5.2
4.0
23.9
24.8
22.8
vs Similar (12)
9.0
9.5
8.5
5.0
5.3
4.7
24.7
23.3
26.0
vs Weaker (29)
10.5
11.6
9.5
4.3
4.5
4.1
22.4
22.4
22.3
% over line
60%
64%
56%
70%
76%
64%
62%
72%
52%
% under line
40%
36%
44%
30%
24%
36%
38%
28%
48%
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.2
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.4
Liverpool
10.4
West Ham
10.3
Brentford
10.1
Manchester City
10.0
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Tottenham
9.9
Manchester United
9.8
Everton
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Burnley
9.4
Leeds
9.3
Wolves
9.3
Crystal Palace
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Sunderland
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Chelsea
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Manchester United
4.3
Brighton
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Newcastle
4.0
Brentford
3.9
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.8
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Everton
3.6
Liverpool
3.4
Nottingham Forest
3.4
Leeds
3.3
Arsenal
3.2
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
24.0
Wolves
24.0
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.4
Chelsea
23.2
Tottenham
22.6
Sunderland
22.3
West Ham
22.0
Manchester United
21.9
Brighton
21.9
Arsenal
21.8
Newcastle
21.7
Everton
21.4
Leeds
21.3
Crystal Palace
20.9
Manchester City
20.7
Liverpool
20.7
Burnley
20.6
Fulham
20.6
Brentford
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.4%
Under 9.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
72.0%
Under 3.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
54.8%
Under 21.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sunderland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.83
0.33
0.78
0.22
0.89
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.71
0.67
0.33
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.76
0.78
0.78
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sunderland over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sunderland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.67
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.76
0.78
0.44
0.75
1.12
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sunderland over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sunderland over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelsea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (26)
€1280m
MC (27)
€1243m
CHE (29)
€1114m
LIV (28)
€940m
MU (29)
€764m
TOT (32)
€713m
NEW (29)
€696m
BOU (31)
€658m
NFO (32)
€621m
BHA (32)
€592m
AVL (28)
€583m
CRY (30)
€553m
BRE (29)
€482m
WHU (34)
€449m
EVE (26)
€443m
SUN (31)
€415m
LEE (28)
€373m
FUL (25)
€356m
WOL (29)
€311m
BUR (33)
€233m
Sunderland's squad is €699m less valuable than Chelsea's (€415m vs €1114m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (11)
€555m
MC (7)
€542m
LIV (8)
€490m
CHE (8)
€418m
MU (10)
€362m
BOU (12)
€353m
NFO (12)
€301m
AVL (11)
€270m
CRY (12)
€255m
TOT (11)
€250m
NEW (8)
€249m
BRE (9)
€208m
EVE (8)
€194m
BHA (11)
€191m
FUL (11)
€188m
WHU (12)
€174m
SUN (13)
€168m
LEE (10)
€142m
BUR (14)
€100m
WOL (10)
€86m
Sunderland's attack is €250m less valuable than Chelsea's (€168m vs €418m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (5)
€267m
NEW (6)
€249m
ARS (4)
€225m
LIV (6)
€201m
TOT (7)
€177m
BHA (8)
€176m
AVL (7)
€168m
MC (6)
€166m
EVE (7)
€126m
NFO (4)
€117m
WHU (8)
€112m
WOL (5)
€111m
SUN (5)
€108m
BOU (5)
€106m
MU (4)
€102m
LEE (6)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
BRE (7)
€89m
BUR (5)
€48m
FUL (4)
€38m
Sunderland's midfield is €160m less valuable than Chelsea's (€108m vs €267m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (14)
€535m
ARS (11)
€500m
CHE (16)
€430m
MU (15)
€300m
TOT (14)
€286m
LIV (14)
€248m
BHA (13)
€225m
CRY (13)
€205m
NFO (16)
€203m
BOU (14)
€199m
NEW (15)
€198m
BRE (13)
€186m
WHU (14)
€164m
AVL (10)
€146m
SUN (13)
€140m
LEE (12)
€134m
FUL (10)
€131m
EVE (11)
€123m
WOL (14)
€115m
BUR (14)
€85m
Sunderland's defence is €290m less valuable than Chelsea's (€140m vs €430m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Arsenal
Manchester City
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Brighton
Brentford
Fulham
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Burnley
Wolves