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Super Nova vs Valmiera II Result & Analysis

Date: 05/10/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 4-1
Super Nova
Super Nova
Vs
74%
17%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Super Nova wināœ“ Hit
74.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II wināœ— Miss
8.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-770W11D50W10W10W30W30W20W20W01LH·MĀR20/07A·OGR27/07H·RIG10/08H·SKA17/08H·JDF24/08H·LEE31/08A·RĒZ08/09A·RÄŖG15/09H·TUK22/09A·JFK28/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.732.270.871.200.60
vs Stronger (13)0.771.150.801.400.751.00
vs Similar (11)2.640.643.430.861.250.25
vs Weaker (6)2.170.002.000.002.330.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L02L14L12L20W00D20W12L30WA·JDF20/07A·LEE29/07A·RÄŖG03/08A·TUK09/08H·JFK18/08H·RĒZ23/08A·PRO01/09H·SMI14/09A·MĀR22/09H·OGR29/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.471.851.081.181.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.221.281.621.120.901.40
vs Weaker (12)1.831.752.201.001.572.29
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%
3-0
10.0%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
6.2%
0-0
4.8%
Super Nova goals ↓
Valmiera II goals →
01234
04.8%2.3%1.1%0.3%0.1%
19.2%8.2%2.8%0.7%0.1%
212%9.2%3.4%0.9%0.2%
310%7.5%2.8%0.7%0.1%
46.2%4.6%1.7%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova goals (down), columns = Valmiera II goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
RÄ«gas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
Super Nova is 1.19 points better than Valmiera II in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.31).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
RÄ«gas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
Super Nova is 0.92 goals better than Valmiera II in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.58).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
RÄ«gas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
Super Nova is 1.08 goals better than Valmiera II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.42 vs 1.50).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W11D40W10W00D20W20W10W20W00DH·MĀR20/07A·OGR27/07H·RIG10/08H·SKA17/08H·JDF24/08H·LEE31/08A·RĒZ08/09A·RÄŖG15/09H·TUK22/09A·JFK28/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.401.130.530.600.27
vs Stronger (13)0.540.690.601.000.500.50
vs Similar (11)1.180.271.430.430.750.00
vs Weaker (6)1.000.001.330.000.670.00
Clean sheet %73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D00D02L10W10W00D10W01L20WA·JDF20/07A·LEE29/07A·RÄŖG03/08A·TUK09/08H·JFK18/08H·RĒZ23/08A·PRO01/09H·SMI14/09A·MĀR22/09H·OGR29/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.601.000.620.530.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.500.880.500.200.50
vs Weaker (12)1.080.751.200.801.000.71
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D10W00D10W10W10W10W00D01LH·MĀR20/07A·OGR27/07H·RIG10/08H·SKA17/08H·JDF24/08H·LEE31/08A·RĒZ08/09A·RÄŖG15/09H·TUK22/09A·JFK28/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.331.130.330.600.33
vs Stronger (13)0.230.460.200.400.250.50
vs Similar (11)1.450.362.000.430.500.25
vs Weaker (6)1.170.000.670.001.670.00
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L02L12L02L10W00D10W11D10WA·JDF20/07A·LEE29/07A·RÄŖG03/08A·TUK09/08H·JFK18/08H·RĒZ23/08A·PRO01/09H·SMI14/09A·MĀR22/09H·OGR29/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.870.850.460.651.18
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.720.780.750.620.700.90
vs Weaker (12)0.751.001.000.200.571.57
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%-------āœ“ Hit
Home win74.2%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SN wins
0
Draws
1
VI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Super Nova vs Valmiera II · H/A from SN
DateH/AGameScore
16/06/24AValmiera II Vs SN2-1

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24AJFK Ventspils Vs SN1-0
22/09/24HSN Vs Tukums II2-0
15/09/24ARÄ«gas FS II Vs SN0-2
08/09/24ARēzekne FA Vs SN0-3
31/08/24HSN Vs Leevon / PPK3-0
24/08/24HSN Vs JDFS Alberts1-0
17/08/24HSN Vs Skanste1-0
10/08/24HSN Vs Riga FC II5-0
27/07/24AOgre United Vs SN1-1
20/07/24HSN Vs Mārupe7-0

Valmiera IIValmiera II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/24HVI Vs Ogre United3-0
22/09/24AMārupe Vs VI2-1
14/09/24HVI Vs Smiltene2-0
01/09/24AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs VI0-0
23/08/24HVI Vs Rēzekne FA2-0
18/08/24HVI Vs JFK Ventspils1-2
09/08/24ATukums II Vs VI4-1
03/08/24ARÄ«gas FS II Vs VI2-0
29/07/24ALeevon / PPK Vs VI2-1
20/07/24AJDFS Alberts Vs VI3-2

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.16
HomeWWWWW1.28
AwayLDWWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals3.223.842.60
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %54%64%44%
Over 3.5 %42%56%28%
Scored1.401.721.08
Conceded1.822.121.52
BTTS42%40%44%
Clean Sheet32%32%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Valmiera II
Valmiera II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.20
HomeWLWWW1.61
AwayLLLDL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%48%22%
AVG goals2.922.743.07
Over 1.5 %76%78%74%
Over 2.5 %58%52%63%
Over 3.5 %38%35%41%
Scored1.381.651.15
Conceded1.541.091.93
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet26%35%19%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Super NovaSuper Nova2665
81%
2.5
6511+54
2.9
73%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.4
-
2RÄ«gas FS IIRÄ«gas FS II2663
77%
2.4
7118+53
3.4
88%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.7
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
73%
2.2
5321+32
2.8
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Riga FC IIRiga FC II2648
50%
1.8
5926+33
3.3
77%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
5SkansteSkanste2641
46%
1.6
3928+11
2.6
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Valmiera IIValmiera II2634
38%
1.3
4139+2
3.1
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
7MārupeMārupe2633
35%
1.3
2544-19
2.7
65%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2631
35%
1.2
3638-2
2.8
73%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
9Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2630
31%
1.2
4550-5
3.7
92%
73%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2630
31%
1.2
3237-5
2.7
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ogre UnitedOgre United2629
27%
1.1
3744-7
3.1
85%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.41.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2619
19%
0.7
2568-43
3.6
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
13SmilteneSmiltene2617
15%
0.7
2462-38
3.3
92%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.4
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2614
12%
0.5
1884-66
3.9
92%
73%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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