Sutjeska’s recent draw against Jezero leaves the team looking for a decisive win, and the model’s 68% home-win probability reflects that advantage. The model picks a home victory as the most likely result, driven by Sutjeska’s strong home form: averaging two goals scored and only 0.4 conceded against weaker opposition. Jedinstvo, on the other hand, has struggled away, scoring just 0.6 and conceding 2.3 against stronger teams, which explains the 12% chance of an away win. The expected total is 3.1 goals, with the most probable total of three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Sutjeska, with an 11.2% chance. The match-result probabilities are 68% home win, 20% draw, and 12% away win. The model’s only selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.7% probability.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Sutjeska, the pre-match favourite with a 68% chance of victory, fell to a 1-3 defeat. The model’s pick was wrong, but its single suggested selection, Over 1.5 goals with an 82.7% probability, hit as the match produced four goals. Sutjeska’s recent form - three losses and a draw - had left them vulnerable, while Jedinstvo, after a win-win-win-loss streak, was riding momentum. The final score of 1-3 confirmed the away win and the model’s prediction of a home win was incorrect. The match’s total goals exceeded the expected 3.1, aligning with the model’s over-1.5 call.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sutjeska win✗ Miss
67.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo win✓ Hit
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sutjeska
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.93
1.86
0.64
1.44
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.75
1.20
1.78
0.78
1.73
1.55
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.40
2.00
0.40
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jedinstvo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.27
0.56
0.81
0.93
1.79
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
1.60
0.60
0.90
0.60
2.30
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.60
0.50
0.67
1.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.4%
Under 2.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
9.0%
3-0
8.4%
3-1
7.3%
0-0
5.3%
4-0
4.7%
Sutjeska goals ↓
Jedinstvo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.0%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
9.0%
9.5%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
2
11%
9.7%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
8.4%
7.3%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
4
4.7%
4.1%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutjeska goals (down), columns = Jedinstvo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Sutjeska is 1.03 points better than Jedinstvo in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Sutjeska is 0.86 goals better than Jedinstvo in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Sutjeska is 0.36 goals better than Jedinstvo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.36
0.21
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.60
0.33
0.33
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.10
0.40
0.00
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jedinstvo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.50
0.12
0.19
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (20)
0.20
0.65
0.20
0.20
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.17
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.50
1.50
0.43
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.30
0.60
1.44
0.44
1.18
0.73
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.30
1.60
0.40
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jedinstvo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.44
0.62
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (20)
0.40
0.95
0.40
0.70
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mornar
Petrovac
Dečić
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Mladost DG
Arsenal Tivat
Bokelj
Grbalj
Iskra (Montenegro)