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Sutjeska vs Jezero Result & Analysis

Date: 26/10/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Vs
49%
28%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Sutjeska are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 49% chance of a home win, 28% for a draw and 24% for Jezero to come out on top. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderately open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. Sutjeska’s home form against weaker opposition has them averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Jezero on the road against stronger teams averages 1.67 both for and against. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 74.6% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.5%. The match is poised for a tight contest, with Sutjeska’s recent win over Mladost DG giving them momentum, whereas Jezero’s last defeat to Dečić may dampen their confidence. The predicted outcome remains a home victory, with the most probable scoreline of 1-1 underscoring the likely parity between the sides.

Results analysis

Sutjeska’s victory over Jezero extended a winning streak, finishing 1-0 and confirming the model’s pick of a home win with a 49% probability. The prediction was right, as the final result matched the forecast. The model also suggested Over 1.5 goals at 74.6% confidence, which missed, while Under 3.5 at 73.5% proved accurate. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, but the actual 1-0 score reflected Sutjeska’s strong home form, averaging 2.33 goals scored and conceding 1.33. Jezero, playing away against stronger opposition, managed only 1.67 goals scored and conceded. Overall, the model’s selections performed well, with two hits and one miss.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sutjeska win✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero win✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D12L52W20W13L31W00D01L02L10WH·PET17/08A·JEZ24/08H·BOK30/08H·ARS13/09A·DEČ17/09H·MLA21/09A·JED27/09A·MOR01/10H·BUD05/10A·PET18/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.201.861.291.061.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.501.141.731.271.271.00
vs Weaker (8)1.251.382.331.330.601.40
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D21W22D40W10W12L22D11D13L03LH·BOK17/08H·SUT24/08A·ARS30/08H·DEČ13/09A·MLA17/09H·JED21/09A·MOR27/09A·BUD01/10H·PET05/10A·BOK18/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.301.731.401.071.20
vs Stronger (7)1.861.572.001.501.671.67
vs Similar (21)1.291.331.701.500.911.18
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0 ✓
10.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
4.9%
Sutjeska goals ↓
Jezero goals →
01234
08.6%6.5%4.0%1.4%0.4%
110%13%6.2%2.1%0.6%
29.1%9.4%4.9%1.7%0.4%
34.8%4.9%2.6%0.9%0.2%
41.9%1.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutjeska goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Sutjeska is 0.76 points better than Jezero in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Sutjeska is 0.48 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Sutjeska is 0.29 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SutjeskaSutjeska

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L30W00D02L10W00D01L00D00DH·PET17/08A·JEZ24/08H·BOK30/08H·ARS13/09A·DEČ17/09H·MLA21/09A·JED27/09A·MOR01/10H·BUD05/10A·PET18/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.640.430.500.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.550.450.550.360.550.55
vs Weaker (8)0.620.621.000.670.400.60
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W12L20W00D02L02L00D02L01LH·BOK17/08H·SUT24/08A·ARS30/08H·DEČ13/09A·MLA17/09H·JED21/09A·MOR27/09A·BUD01/10H·PET05/10A·BOK18/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.630.730.670.400.60
vs Stronger (7)1.140.431.250.251.000.67
vs Similar (21)0.380.760.500.900.270.64
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SutjeskaSutjeska

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D22D20W11D21W00D00D02L10WH·PET17/08A·JEZ24/08H·BOK30/08H·ARS13/09A·DEČ17/09H·MLA21/09A·JED27/09A·MOR01/10H·BUD05/10A·PET18/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.701.210.860.560.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.950.681.180.910.730.45
vs Weaker (8)0.620.751.330.670.200.80
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D11D10W20W10W10W20W11D11D02LH·BOK17/08H·SUT24/08A·ARS30/08H·DEČ13/09A·MLA17/09H·JED21/09A·MOR27/09A·BUD01/10H·PET05/10A·BOK18/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.671.000.730.670.60
vs Stronger (7)0.711.140.751.250.671.00
vs Similar (21)0.900.571.200.600.640.55
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
Sutjeska's squad is €4m more valuable than Jezero's (€5m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Sutjeska's attack is €2m more valuable than Jezero's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
Sutjeska and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Sutjeska's defence is €1m more valuable than Jezero's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
SUT wins
2
Draws
2
JEZ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sutjeska vs Jezero · H/A from SUT
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/25AJezero Vs SUT2-1
18/05/25AJezero Vs SUT2-0
29/03/25HSUT Vs Jezero2-1
25/11/24AJezero Vs SUT0-1
22/09/24HSUT Vs Jezero2-1
03/04/24HSUT Vs Jezero2-1
10/12/23AJezero Vs SUT0-0
27/09/23HSUT Vs Jezero1-1

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25APetrovac Vs SUT0-1
05/10/25HSUT Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-2
01/10/25AMornar Vs SUT1-0
27/09/25AJedinstvo Vs SUT0-0
21/09/25HSUT Vs Mladost DG3-1
17/09/25ADečić Vs SUT3-1
13/09/25HSUT Vs Arsenal Tivat2-0
30/08/25HSUT Vs Bokelj5-2
24/08/25AJezero Vs SUT2-1
17/08/25HSUT Vs Petrovac1-1

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25ABokelj Vs JEZ3-0
05/10/25HJEZ Vs Petrovac1-3
01/10/25ABuducnost Podgorica Vs JEZ1-1
27/09/25AMornar Vs JEZ2-2
21/09/25HJEZ Vs Jedinstvo1-2
17/09/25AMladost DG Vs JEZ0-1
13/09/25HJEZ Vs Dečić4-0
30/08/25AArsenal Tivat Vs JEZ2-2
24/08/25HJEZ Vs Sutjeska2-1
17/08/25HJEZ Vs Bokelj2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.44
HomeDWWWL1.44
AwayLLDLW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals2.382.682.08
Over 1.5 %74%88%60%
Over 2.5 %40%48%32%
Over 3.5 %14%16%12%
Scored1.241.441.04
Conceded1.141.241.04
BTTS42%52%32%
Clean Sheet36%28%44%
Corners---
Cards---
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.18
HomeDWWLL1.32
AwayDWDDL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.362.482.24
Over 1.5 %70%72%68%
Over 2.5 %42%44%40%
Over 3.5 %22%28%16%
Scored1.101.280.92
Conceded1.261.201.32
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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