SV Elversberg’s recent home form shows a 2-game winning streak, yet their average of three goals scored and two conceded against stronger opponents signals vulnerability in front of a Bayern Munich side that averages 3.33 goals for and only 1.08 against on the road. The model therefore rates Bayern the clear favourite, assigning them a 68% chance of victory, 17% for a draw and 15% for an Elversberg win, with the away win being the model_pick. The expected total of 4.1 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-2 for Bayern, carrying an 8.5% probability. The model’s suggested picks reflect this dominance: Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (92.6%) and Away over 0.5 goals (94.3%). Additional selections include Away +2 handicap (95.9%), Under 7.5 (95.1%) and Over 1.5 (91.9%), all with their respective edge percentages where provided.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SV Elversberg win
15.0%
Avg Implied 7.4% · @ 12.70
Edge
+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
16.50
Marathonbet
15.50
William Hil
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.50
Draw
17.4%
Avg Implied 12.4% · @ 7.62
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.20
Pinnacle
8.20
Dafabet
8.00
10Bet
7.75
Bayern München win
67.5%
Avg Implied 80.2% · @ 1.18
Edge
-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Dafabet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SV Elversberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.20
2.20
0.87
1.80
1.53
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.86
1.23
1.91
0.82
1.82
1.64
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.00
3.00
0.67
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayern München
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.5
Avg scored
3.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.43
1.37
3.67
1.40
3.20
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
2.60
2.20
2.50
2.00
2.67
2.33
vs Weaker (25)
3.60
1.20
3.85
1.31
3.33
1.08
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Elversberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.9%
@ 1.06+2.5%
Under 1.5
8.1%
@ 9.04-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Under
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.50
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.20
Betano
8.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.1%
@ 1.22+0.6%
Under 2.5
22.9%
@ 3.99-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
Under
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
57.9%
@ 1.62-0.8%
Under 3.5
42.1%
@ 2.31+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.34
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Both teams to score
Yes
68.7%
@ 1.62+11.0%
No
31.3%
@ 2.21-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.64
No
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.5%@ 9.43+3.7%
1-3
7.9%@ 9.15+2.8%
1-1
6.8%@ 14.81+3.7%
0-2
6.6%@ 9.18+1.6%
0-3
6.1%@ 8.68+0.8%
2-2
5.6%@ 19.00+3.1%
1-4
5.5%@ 11.40+1.4%
2-3
5.1%@ 17.29+2.5%
SV Elversberg goals ↓
Bayern München goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
4.1%
6.6%
6.1%
4.2%
1
1.6%
6.8%
8.5%
7.9%
5.5%
2
1.5%
4.0%
5.6%
5.1%
3.5%
3
0.6%
1.7%
2.4%
2.2%
1.5%
4
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Elversberg goals (down), columns = Bayern München goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
SV Elversberg is 1.61 points worse than Bayern München in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
SV Elversberg is 2.44 goals worse than Bayern München in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 3.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
SV Elversberg is 1.04 goals worse than Bayern München in terms of goals conceded per game (2.10 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SV Elversberg
For 5.3 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bayern München
For 6.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.1 · Against 9.8 · Total 17.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Elversberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.9
10.2
4.2
3.4
5.1
24.3
23.3
25.3
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
7.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
33.0
33.0
-
vs Similar (37)
10.0
9.9
10.0
4.2
3.4
4.9
24.1
23.1
24.9
vs Weaker (12)
8.4
7.1
11.0
4.2
3.0
6.5
24.2
22.5
27.5
% over line
51%
44%
58%
62%
52%
72%
71%
56%
88%
% under line
49%
56%
42%
38%
48%
28%
29%
44%
12%
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayern München
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.4
9.2
3.1
2.6
3.6
18.2
16.6
19.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
10.1
9.0
10.8
4.8
6.0
4.2
21.6
20.3
22.4
vs Weaker (41)
9.7
10.6
8.8
2.8
2.2
3.5
17.4
16.0
18.9
% over line
49%
59%
39%
40%
32%
48%
33%
18%
48%
% under line
51%
41%
61%
60%
68%
52%
67%
82%
52%
This opponent (SV Elversberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.1%
@ 1.70-7.2%
Under 9.5
52.9%
@ 2.02+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.70
Under
Unibet
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.0%
Under 3.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
35.9%
Under 21.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SV Elversberg or Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.91
Edge
+7.3%
15%
17%
68%
covers SV Elversberg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.85
SV Elversberg or Bayern München
84.2%
Avg Implied 88.0% · @ 1.09
Edge
-3.8%
15%
17%
68%
covers SV Elversberg + Bayern München
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Draw or Bayern München
88.9%
Avg Implied 92.5% · @ 1.03
Edge
-3.5%
15%
17%
68%
covers Draw + Bayern München
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
William Hil
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SV Elversberg over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
@ 1.56+7.0%
Under
33.4%
@ 2.30-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Under
Betfair
2.60
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.29
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.25
SV Elversberg over/under 1.5
Over
29.9%
@ 3.71+4.8%
Under
70.1%
@ 1.25-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.65
Under
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
SV Elversberg over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
@ 10.44+0.8%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.04-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
12.25
Betano
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betfair
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
SV Elversberg over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
@ 23.50-1.6%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Bayern München over/under 0.5
Over
94.3%
@ 1.02+1.2%
Under
5.7%
@ 13.75-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Under
Bet365
19.00
1xBet
12.00
Betano
10.25
Bayern München over/under 1.5
Over
77.9%
@ 1.15-3.2%
Under
22.1%
@ 4.92+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Bayern München over/under 2.5
Over
54.5%
@ 1.52-6.9%
Under
45.5%
@ 2.42+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.40
Bayern München over/under 3.5
Over
32.2%
@ 2.31-8.2%
Under
67.8%
@ 1.56+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SV Elversberg, so a minus line means SV Elversberg give that many goals of a start and Bayern München receive them. At -1, SV Elversberg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SV Elversberg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SV Elversberg)
SV Elversberg -2
1.1%
Draw -2
2.9%
Bayern München +2
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (SV Elversberg)
SV Elversberg -1
4.1%
@ 24.50+0.3%
Draw -1
7.0%
@ 14.00+0.4%
Bayern München +1
88.9%
@ 1.04-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
23.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Handicap +1 (SV Elversberg)
SV Elversberg +1
26.9%
@ 4.83+8.2%
Draw +1
19.3%
@ 4.61-0.3%
Bayern München -1
53.8%
@ 1.46-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Betfair
4.20
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Away
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Handicap +2 (SV Elversberg)
SV Elversberg +2
46.2%
@ 2.49+9.9%
Draw +2
20.0%
@ 4.21-1.5%
Bayern München -2
33.9%
@ 2.14-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.48
Betfair
2.20
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.17
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SV Elversberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.00
0.33
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.55
0.73
0.36
0.82
0.73
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.71
1.67
0.33
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayern München
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.73
1.60
0.73
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.40
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.28
0.60
1.69
0.54
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Elversberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.0%
@ 1.14-9.1%
Under 0.5
27.0%
@ 5.23+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.9%
@ 1.73-10.3%
Under 1.5
56.1%
@ 2.05+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Under
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.4%
@ 3.27-13.2%
Under 2.5
84.6%
@ 1.31+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.40
Betano
3.35
Unibet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Under
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SV Elversberg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.2%
@ 2.77+18.6%
Under
47.8%
@ 1.41-18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.77
10Bet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
Under
1xBet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
SV Elversberg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.8%
@ 9.82+13.3%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.03-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.50
1xBet
9.20
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
SV Elversberg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bayern München over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.5%
@ 1.25-22.8%
Under
48.5%
@ 3.60+22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Under
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.40
Bayern München over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.9%
@ 2.20-24.2%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.60+24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Unibet
1.57
Bayern München over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.4%
@ 4.78-11.9%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.15+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SV Elversberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.20
0.53
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.68
1.18
0.45
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.29
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayern München
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.63
2.07
0.67
2.33
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
0.80
1.50
0.00
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (25)
2.32
0.60
2.15
0.77
2.50
0.42
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Elversberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.1%
@ 1.08-2.5%
Under 0.5
14.9%
@ 7.62+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Under
1xBet
9.40
Bet365
8.00
Betano
7.20
William Hil
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.5%
@ 1.42-15.3%
Under 1.5
49.5%
@ 2.74+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.82
1xBet
2.81
Marathonbet
2.81
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.5%
@ 2.32-14.1%
Under 2.5
73.5%
@ 1.58+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.50
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SV Elversberg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.8%
@ 2.22+8.9%
Under
49.2%
@ 1.60-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.27
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.56
SV Elversberg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.8%
@ 7.50+10.5%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.06-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
7.10
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
SV Elversberg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.7%
@ 12.50+3.2%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.01-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bayern München over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.6%
@ 1.15-21.6%
Under
40.4%
@ 4.97+21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.10
Betano
4.85
Bayern München over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.3%
@ 1.73-30.5%
Under
76.7%
@ 2.01+30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Bayern München over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
@ 3.18-24.5%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.31+24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
Away +2 handicap
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
-
+2.9%
Away over 0.5 goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.2%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.6%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
-
+11.9%
Over 1.5
91.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
1.04
Betfair
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-0.8%
Under 6.5
89.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
+3.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.2%
Draw or Away
88.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
William Hil
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-3.5%
Away +1 handicap
88.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-0.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.08
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.05
-2.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.6%
1.31
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.31
+13.2%
Home or Away
84.2%
1.09
1xBet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
-3.8%
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.2%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.21
+3.8%
Under 23.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
77.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.13
-3.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-13.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
-10.5%
Over 2.5
77.1%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
+0.6%
Under 11.5 corners
75.8%
1.40
Unibet
1.40
-
-
-
-
+10.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.58
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
+14.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.0%
1.14
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-9.1%
Over 2.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.1%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
-4.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SV Elversberg · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Younes Ebnoutalib37%
David Mokwa29%
Lukas Petkov28%
Otto Stange25%
Bambasé Conté15%
Jason Ceka14%
Tom Zimmerschied11%
Frederik Schmahl10%
Luca Schnellbacher10%
Raif Adam10%
Maximilian Rohr9%
Jarzinho Malanga8%
Immanuel Pherai8%
Felix Keidel7%
Florian Yves Le Joncour5%
Nicholas Mickelson4%
Jan Gyamerah3%
Amara Condé3%
Łukasz Poręba3%
Carlo Sickinger0%
Lasse Günther0%
Lukas Finn Pinckert0%
Nicolas Kristof0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amara Condé30%
Maximilian Rohr25%
Otto Stange25%
Lukas Finn Pinckert19%
Jan Gyamerah17%
Immanuel Pherai15%
Nicholas Mickelson12%
Łukasz Poręba11%
Lukas Petkov11%
Felix Keidel11%
Younes Ebnoutalib11%
Frederik Schmahl10%
Tom Zimmerschied8%
Bambasé Conté7%
Nicolas Kristof6%
Florian Yves Le Joncour5%
Lasse Günther4%
Luca Schnellbacher3%
Carlo Sickinger0%
Jason Ceka0%
David Mokwa0%
Jarzinho Malanga0%
Raif Adam0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Zimmerschied25%
Lasse Günther21%
Bambasé Conté15%
Lukas Petkov14%
Luca Schnellbacher13%
Jan Gyamerah10%
Łukasz Poręba8%
Otto Stange8%
Nicholas Mickelson8%
Felix Keidel7%
Maximilian Rohr6%
Frederik Schmahl3%
Amara Condé3%
Florian Yves Le Joncour0%
Carlo Sickinger0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Lukas Finn Pinckert0%
Nicolas Kristof0%
Jason Ceka0%
David Mokwa0%
Jarzinho Malanga0%
Younes Ebnoutalib0%
Raif Adam0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Younes Ebnoutalib37%
Lukas Petkov25%
Immanuel Pherai23%
Tom Zimmerschied11%
Bambasé Conté7%
Felix Keidel7%
David Mokwa6%
Amara Condé3%
Łukasz Poręba3%
Florian Yves Le Joncour0%
Jan Gyamerah0%
Carlo Sickinger0%
Luca Schnellbacher0%
Nicholas Mickelson0%
Maximilian Rohr0%
Lasse Günther0%
Lukas Finn Pinckert0%
Nicolas Kristof0%
Jason Ceka0%
Frederik Schmahl0%
Jarzinho Malanga0%
Otto Stange0%
Raif Adam0%
Bayern München · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Harry Kane76%
Luis Díaz42%
Michael Olise35%
Nicolas Jackson32%
Serge Gnabry25%
Lennart Karl24%
Raphaël Guerreiro21%
Jamal Musiala21%
Aleksandar Pavlović9%
Leon Goretzka9%
Josip Stanišić7%
Konrad Laimer7%
Jonathan Tah6%
Tom Bischof5%
Dayot Upamecano5%
Alphonso Davies4%
Hiroki Itō4%
Joshua Kimmich4%
Min-jae Kim3%
Manuel Neuer0%
Sacha Boey0%
Jonas Urbig0%
Wisdom Mike0%
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konrad Laimer30%
Michael Olise22%
Jonathan Tah21%
Dayot Upamecano20%
Luis Díaz18%
Joshua Kimmich17%
Aleksandar Pavlović11%
Josip Stanišić10%
Leon Goretzka9%
Manuel Neuer8%
Min-jae Kim8%
Jamal Musiala8%
Tom Bischof8%
Sacha Boey7%
Nicolas Jackson6%
Alphonso Davies4%
Harry Kane4%
Serge Gnabry3%
Lennart Karl3%
Raphaël Guerreiro0%
Hiroki Itō0%
Jonas Urbig0%
Wisdom Mike0%
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Olise39%
Luis Díaz32%
Serge Gnabry28%
Jamal Musiala25%
Joshua Kimmich23%
Alphonso Davies22%
Konrad Laimer22%
Lennart Karl18%
Harry Kane12%
Josip Stanišić12%
Nicolas Jackson9%
Hiroki Itō9%
Leon Goretzka9%
Tom Bischof8%
Dayot Upamecano7%
Raphaël Guerreiro7%
Aleksandar Pavlović5%
Jonathan Tah4%
Min-jae Kim3%
Manuel Neuer0%
Sacha Boey0%
Jonas Urbig0%
Wisdom Mike0%
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Kane50%
Michael Olise41%
Luis Díaz32%
Lennart Karl21%
Nicolas Jackson18%
Serge Gnabry17%
Jamal Musiala8%
Hiroki Itō4%
Leon Goretzka4%
Joshua Kimmich4%
Raphaël Guerreiro4%
Tom Bischof3%
Aleksandar Pavlović2%
Konrad Laimer2%
Manuel Neuer0%
Alphonso Davies0%
Jonathan Tah0%
Dayot Upamecano0%
Sacha Boey0%
Min-jae Kim0%
Josip Stanišić0%
Jonas Urbig0%
Wisdom Mike0%
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
SV Elversberg's squad is €1025m less valuable than Bayern München's (€52m vs €1076m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
SV Elversberg's attack is €520m less valuable than Bayern München's (€33m vs €554m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
SV Elversberg's midfield is €183m less valuable than Bayern München's (€4m vs €187m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SV Elversberg's defence is €321m less valuable than Bayern München's (€14m vs €336m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart