The model favours an away win for Floridsdorfer AC, with a 45% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 26% chance of a home win. The expected total of goals is 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.6% probability. SV Kapfenberg, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.62 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Floridsdorfer AC away from home averages 1.15 goals scored and only 0.54 conceded. The match-day form shows Kapfenberg coming off a win, whereas Floridsdorfer AC is on a two-game winning streak. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 97.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 94.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 91.6%, Over 23.5 fouls at 87.5%, Over 3.5 cards at 80.6%, Over 25.5 fouls at 77.6%, Under 3.5 at 74.3%, and Over 1.5 at 73.8%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and the overall shape of the game points to a tightly contested encounter with Floridsdorfer AC edging out the win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Floridsdorfer AC, was expected to win with a 45% probability, but the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The game, a 2.6-goal affair, saw both sides score once, matching the most likely 2-goal outcome. SV Kapfenberg, coming off a win, had a 26% chance of triumph, while Floridsdorfer, on a two-game winning streak, had a 45% chance of victory. The model’s selections all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 97.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 94.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 91.6%, Over 23.5 fouls at 87.5%, Over 3.5 cards at 80.6%, Over 25.5 fouls at 77.6%, Under 3.5 at 74.3%, and Over 1.5 at 73.8%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SV Kapfenberg win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC win✗ Miss
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.87
1.67
2.20
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.75
2.00
3.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.73
1.62
2.00
0.85
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.03
1.56
1.44
1.21
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.32
1.04
1.47
1.47
1.15
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.9%
0-2
8.5%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
4.9%
SV Kapfenberg goals ↓
Floridsdorfer AC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
10%
8.5%
4.2%
1.6%
1
7.1%
14%
9.2%
4.5%
1.7%
2
4.5%
6.6%
4.9%
2.5%
0.9%
3
1.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Kapfenberg goals (down), columns = Floridsdorfer AC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Grazer AK
2.30
Ried
1.97
First Vienna
1.70
Leoben
1.70
Floridsdorfer AC
1.63
FC Liefering
1.57
Admira Wacker
1.57
SV Horn
1.37
SKN ST. Polten
1.33
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.30
SV Lafnitz
1.23
SV Kapfenberg
1.17
Stripfing
1.17
Dornbirn
1.10
Sturm Graz II
0.77
SKU Amstetten
0.53
SV Kapfenberg is 0.47 points worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ried
2.23
Grazer AK
1.90
First Vienna
1.73
FC Liefering
1.70
SV Lafnitz
1.60
Leoben
1.57
SKN ST. Polten
1.53
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
SV Kapfenberg
1.40
Admira Wacker
1.40
Stripfing
1.33
SV Horn
1.33
Sturm Graz II
1.30
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.27
Dornbirn
1.07
SKU Amstetten
1.00
SV Kapfenberg is 0.10 goals worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ried
0.73
Grazer AK
0.90
Admira Wacker
1.03
Leoben
1.03
Floridsdorfer AC
1.10
First Vienna
1.30
FC Liefering
1.33
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.50
SV Horn
1.60
Dornbirn
1.70
SKN ST. Polten
1.73
SV Kapfenberg
1.80
SV Lafnitz
1.90
Stripfing
1.93
SKU Amstetten
2.03
Sturm Graz II
2.23
SV Kapfenberg is 0.70 goals worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ried
56%
SKN ST. Polten
55%
Floridsdorfer AC
54%
Leoben
51%
FC Liefering
51%
First Vienna
50%
Admira Wacker
50%
SV Horn
49%
SV Lafnitz
48%
SKU Amstetten
48%
Grazer AK
48%
SV Kapfenberg
45%
Dornbirn
43%
SV Kapfenberg is 9.0 percentage points worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of average possession (45% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
For 3.0 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 13.2 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Floridsdorfer AC
For 5.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 15.1 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
9.9
9.8
10.1
3.6
3.5
3.7
27.1
30.0
24.6
vs Stronger (4)
13.0
15.0
12.0
2.5
1.0
4.0
24.3
25.0
24.0
vs Similar (27)
9.4
9.1
9.7
3.8
3.9
3.6
27.5
30.6
24.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
44%
55%
48%
40%
56%
90%
100%
82%
% under line
50%
56%
45%
52%
60%
44%
10%
0%
18%
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
10.1
10.6
9.7
3.0
2.9
3.1
29.5
30.1
29.0
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
6.0
18.0
3.5
5.0
2.0
32.5
37.0
28.0
vs Similar (29)
9.9
11.1
8.9
2.9
2.7
3.1
29.2
29.2
29.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
67%
55%
45%
50%
40%
95%
89%
100%
% under line
40%
33%
45%
55%
50%
60%
5%
11%
0%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
First Vienna
12.2
Dornbirn
11.1
Ried
10.8
Admira Wacker
10.4
FC Liefering
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.2
Floridsdorfer AC
10.1
SV Kapfenberg
9.9
SV Horn
9.3
SKN ST. Polten
9.1
Grazer AK
9.1
SV Lafnitz
8.8
Leoben
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
5.6
SV Horn
5.5
Dornbirn
5.2
Admira Wacker
4.9
SV Lafnitz
4.8
Floridsdorfer AC
4.6
Grazer AK
4.4
Ried
4.2
FC Liefering
4.2
First Vienna
4.1
SKU Amstetten
3.5
SKN ST. Polten
3.5
Leoben
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Floridsdorfer AC
29.5
SV Horn
29.2
Dornbirn
27.6
SV Lafnitz
27.4
First Vienna
27.4
Grazer AK
27.1
SV Kapfenberg
27.1
FC Liefering
27.0
Admira Wacker
26.6
SKU Amstetten
24.9
Ried
24.0
SKN ST. Polten
22.8
Leoben
13.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.1%
Under 9.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.6%
Under 3.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.0%
Under 21.5
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.67
1.07
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.77
0.62
1.00
0.31
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.81
0.62
0.36
0.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.43
0.80
0.60
0.38
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.13
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.96
1.00
1.00
0.54
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.75
0.81
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.61
0.67
0.87
0.77
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
FL (17)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (8)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (13)
€6m
RIE (9)
€3m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Grazer AK
Ried
Leoben
First Vienna
FC Liefering
Admira Wacker
SV Horn
SKN ST. Polten
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
SV Lafnitz
Stripfing
Dornbirn
Sturm Graz II
SKU Amstetten