SV Kapfenberg’s home form shows a modest 1.64 goals scored and 1.91 conceded against similar opposition, while Floridsdorfer AC, on the road, averages 1.86 goals for and 1.36 against. The model projects an away win, with a 49% chance for Floridsdorfer, 28% for Kapfenberg and 23% for a draw. The expected total is 3.5 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.8% probability. The match is set for a high-scoring affair, with the most probable total of three goals at 21%. The suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards at 90.7%, Over 1.5 at 87.7%, Over 3.5 cards at 79.0%, Over 8.5 corners at 75.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 74.0% (missed), and Under 25.5 fouls at 73.3%. Both sides have shown recent form: Kapfenberg’s last five were WLLLL, yet they finished with a win over FC BW Linz, while Floridsdorfer are on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Wacker Innsbruck 2-0.
Results analysis
The upset came early as SV Kapfenberg snatched a 3-1 home win, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite, an away victory with a 49% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 3-1 confirmed a home triumph, a result that surprised the 28% home-win odds. The model’s selection of “Over 2.5 cards” hit, as did “Over 1.5,” “Over 3.5 cards,” “Over 8.5 corners,” and “Under 25.5 fouls,” each with probabilities of 90.7%, 87.7%, 79.0%, 75.3%, and 73.3% respectively. The only miss was “Over 19.5 fouls,” which had a 74.0% chance. The win extends Kapfenberg’s recent form, while Floridsdorfer AC’s two-game winning run ended.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SV Kapfenberg win✓ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.70
1.57
2.14
1.62
1.31
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.50
1.33
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.52
1.52
1.64
1.91
1.42
1.17
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
1.00
-
-
6.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.10
1.27
0.67
1.80
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (28)
1.50
1.00
1.14
0.64
1.86
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.7%
Under 1.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.5%
Under 2.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.1%
Under 3.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.4%
No
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
1-2
9.1%
2-2
6.8%
2-1
6.7%
1-3
6.1%
0-2
6.0%
0-1
5.0%
2-3
4.6%
SV Kapfenberg goals ↓
Floridsdorfer AC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
5.0%
6.0%
4.1%
2.1%
1
3.5%
9.8%
9.1%
6.1%
3.1%
2
3.3%
6.7%
6.8%
4.6%
2.3%
3
1.6%
3.3%
3.4%
2.3%
1.2%
4
0.6%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Kapfenberg goals (down), columns = Floridsdorfer AC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ried
2.17
Admira Wacker
1.97
SV Kapfenberg
1.80
SKN ST. Polten
1.77
First Vienna
1.63
FC Liefering
1.43
Sturm Graz II
1.40
SKU Amstetten
1.40
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.27
Austria Lustenau
1.23
Floridsdorfer AC
1.23
Rapid Wien II
1.23
Stripfing
1.13
Voitsberg
1.07
SV Horn
1.00
SV Lafnitz
0.53
SV Kapfenberg is 0.57 points better than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ried
1.97
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.77
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
Rapid Wien II
1.63
First Vienna
1.63
Sturm Graz II
1.60
Admira Wacker
1.60
FC Liefering
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.33
SV Horn
1.33
Stripfing
1.30
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
Voitsberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
0.80
SV Kapfenberg is 0.77 goals better than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of goals scored per game (1.77 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ried
0.77
Austria Lustenau
0.87
Admira Wacker
1.03
SKN ST. Polten
1.13
Floridsdorfer AC
1.17
SKU Amstetten
1.33
Voitsberg
1.37
Sturm Graz II
1.43
FC Liefering
1.43
Stripfing
1.43
First Vienna
1.47
SV Kapfenberg
1.63
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.90
Rapid Wien II
1.90
SV Horn
2.03
SV Lafnitz
2.70
SV Kapfenberg is 0.47 goals worse than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ried
56%
Admira Wacker
52%
FC Liefering
51%
First Vienna
51%
SKN ST. Polten
51%
SV Kapfenberg
51%
Floridsdorfer AC
50%
Rapid Wien II
50%
Voitsberg
50%
Austria Lustenau
49%
SV Lafnitz
49%
SV Horn
46%
SKU Amstetten
45%
SV Kapfenberg is 0.6 percentage points better than Floridsdorfer AC in terms of average possession (51% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SV Kapfenberg
For 3.4 · Against 7.8 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 12.9 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Floridsdorfer AC
For 5.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.2 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.4
10.6
4.7
5.0
4.4
25.1
24.5
25.6
vs Stronger (9)
12.9
15.2
11.0
4.7
3.5
5.6
25.8
25.8
25.8
vs Similar (40)
9.7
9.1
10.4
4.8
5.2
4.3
24.8
24.1
25.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
58%
55%
62%
58%
65%
78%
74%
81%
% under line
44%
42%
45%
38%
42%
35%
22%
26%
19%
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.7
10.3
3.8
4.2
3.4
26.4
28.2
24.5
vs Stronger (3)
8.7
8.5
9.0
5.0
6.5
2.0
35.7
40.5
26.0
vs Similar (47)
10.7
10.9
10.4
3.7
4.0
3.5
25.7
26.9
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
70%
67%
60%
68%
52%
77%
80%
74%
% under line
32%
30%
33%
40%
32%
48%
23%
20%
26%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Voitsberg
12.0
First Vienna
11.6
FC Liefering
10.6
Floridsdorfer AC
10.5
SV Kapfenberg
10.4
SKU Amstetten
10.4
SV Lafnitz
10.4
SKN ST. Polten
10.0
Admira Wacker
10.0
Austria Lustenau
9.8
Ried
9.8
Rapid Wien II
9.7
SV Horn
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
5.9
SV Lafnitz
5.1
SV Horn
5.0
Admira Wacker
4.9
Floridsdorfer AC
4.9
SKN ST. Polten
4.7
First Vienna
4.7
Austria Lustenau
4.7
FC Liefering
4.6
Ried
4.5
SKU Amstetten
4.2
Rapid Wien II
3.3
Voitsberg
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Floridsdorfer AC
26.8
First Vienna
26.4
FC Liefering
26.3
Voitsberg
26.0
Rapid Wien II
25.7
SV Horn
25.7
SV Kapfenberg
25.2
SV Lafnitz
24.7
Admira Wacker
24.6
Ried
24.4
SKU Amstetten
24.1
Austria Lustenau
23.1
SKN ST. Polten
22.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.1%
Under 9.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.0%
Under 3.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
58.3%
Under 21.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.71
1.00
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.52
0.64
1.00
0.67
0.08
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.71
0.43
0.57
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.10
0.86
1.14
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.33
2.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.00
1.00
0.91
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floridsdorfer AC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.37
0.80
0.13
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.29
0.71
0.07
1.14
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (24)
€7m
FL (17)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (8)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (9)
€3m
AW (11)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
SV Kapfenberg and Floridsdorfer AC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ried
Admira Wacker
SKN ST. Polten
First Vienna
FC Liefering
SKU Amstetten
Sturm Graz II
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Austria Lustenau
Rapid Wien II
Stripfing
Voitsberg
SV Horn
SV Lafnitz