SV Kapfenberg vs SKN ST. Polten Result & Analysis

SV Kapfenberg’s home form shows a modest 1.69 goals per game but a high 2.0 conceded average, while SKN ST. Polten, on the road, averages 1.71 scored and only 0.64 conceded against similar opposition. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 55% chance, a draw at 24% and a home win at 21%. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a lively affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% probability. The match is projected to be high-scoring, as the attacking numbers outweigh the defensive figures. The suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 83.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 90.5%, Over 3.5 cards at 78.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 92.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 85.0% and Over 23.5 fouls at 73.4%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are noted where available. The model’s pick remains the away win.

The match finished 0-3 in favour of SKN ST. Polten, a result that matched the model’s favourite and its 55% probability of an away win. The win extends both sides’ recent streaks, each coming off a solitary victory before a series of defeats. The model’s selection of an away triumph was therefore correct. Among the suggested picks, Over 2.5 cards (90.5%) and Over 3.5 cards (78.6%) both hit, as did Under 11.5 corners (74.2%). Over 1.5 (83.4%) also hit, while the high-foul calls - Over 19.5 fouls (92.7%) and Over 21.5 fouls (85.0%) - missed, and Over 23.5 fouls (73.4%) also missed. The model’s predictions were largely accurate, with only the foul-related selections falling short.