Swansea University’s recent five-game winning streak fuels optimism for a home victory, while Pontypridd Town’s four-game run shows they can keep the scoreline close. The model favours a home win, with a 44 % chance, a draw at 24 %, and an away win at 31 %. The expected total is 3.4 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome at 22 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6 % probability. Swansea’s home form shows 1.0 goal scored and 1.38 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Pontypridd’s away form averages 2.1 scored and 1.9 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.6 %), Under 7.5 (97.8 %), Away under 1.5 HT goals (95.6 %), Under 6.5 (94.3 %), Away under 1.5 2H goals (93.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.0 %), and Home under 3.5 goals (88.3 %).
The 4-4 draw shocked everyone, as the pre-match favourite - a home win at 44% - failed to materialise. Swansea University, unbeaten in their last five, and Pontypridd Town, also unbeaten, produced a high-scoring tie that matched the model’s most likely 3-goal total only in spirit, not in score. The model’s call was wrong. Among the suggested picks, the “Away under 2.5 HT goals” at 99% hit, as did “Away under 1.5 HT goals” at 95.3% and “Home under 2.5 HT goals” at 92.1%. The remaining selections - “Away under 2.5 2H goals” (98.3%), “Under 7.5” (97.8%), “Under 6.5” (94.3%), “Away under 1.5 2H goals” (94.5%) and “Away under 3.5 goals” (93.0%) - all missed.
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.70 | 1.33 | 1.87 | 1.60 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.43 | 1.61 | 1.33 | 1.75 | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.60 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 2.32 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 2.27 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 1.88 | 0.75 | 2.75 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Pontypridd Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 11% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.18 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 1.36 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.17 | 0.69 | 1.06 | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.78 | 1.09 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 1.43 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1.36 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 7.5 | 97.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 95.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 94.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 6.5 | 94.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 93.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 92.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 | 87.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 86.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 84.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 84.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home over 0.5 2H goals | 79.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 78.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away +2 handicap | 75.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 0.5 HT goals | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away under 0.5 2H goals | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Swansea University| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-6 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/11/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/10/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 5-1 | |
| 29/04/23 | H | 1-0 |
Pontypridd Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 2-5 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |