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Swieqi United vs Melita Result & Analysis

Date: 04/04/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 5-0
Swieqi United
Swieqi United
Vs
50%
24%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Melita
Melita
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Swieqi United win✓ Hit
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Melita win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-831W15L31W80W20W21W31W20W22D21WH·PIE21/12A·MGA10/01H·ZUR18/01H·MTA31/01A·GUD08/02H·FGU15/02A·PIE22/02H·SIR01/03H·BIR08/03A·BAL14/03
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.402.531.201.471.60
vs Stronger (19)1.581.681.571.141.582.00
vs Similar (4)3.501.004.331.331.000.00
vs Weaker (7)2.290.862.801.201.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MelitaMelita

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L32W41W22D20W10W20W12L01L30WH·BIR21/12H·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02A·PIE08/03H·ST.14/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.571.851.461.411.65
vs Stronger (1)2.000.002.000.00--
vs Similar (24)1.171.711.601.700.861.71
vs Weaker (5)3.601.203.001.004.001.33
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.7%
Under 2.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.0%
No
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
6.7%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.6%
3-1
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
0-0
4.3%
Swieqi United goals ↓
Melita goals →
01234
04.3%3.9%3.4%1.6%0.6%
15.8%10%6.7%3.1%1.1%
26.6%9.3%6.6%3.1%1.1%
34.3%6.1%4.3%2.0%0.7%
42.1%3.0%2.1%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swieqi United goals (down), columns = Melita goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Sirens
1.59
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Swieqi United is 0.47 points better than Melita in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirens
2.27
Balzan FC
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Swieqi United is 0.37 goals better than Melita in terms of goals scored per game (2.23 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Swieqi United is 0.15 goals better than Melita in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L20W20W20W01L20W00D12L10WH·PIE21/12A·MGA10/01H·ZUR18/01H·MTA31/01A·GUD08/02H·FGU15/02A·PIE22/02H·SIR01/03H·BIR08/03A·BAL14/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.600.930.670.870.53
vs Stronger (19)0.790.630.570.570.920.67
vs Similar (4)1.001.001.331.330.000.00
vs Weaker (7)1.140.291.200.401.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MelitaMelita

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W10W01L10W00D10W10W00D20WH·BIR21/12H·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02A·PIE08/03H·ST.14/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.501.310.460.590.53
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (24)0.790.621.300.600.430.64
vs Weaker (5)1.400.001.500.001.330.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W13L11D60W00D20W11D20W10W11DH·PIE21/12A·MGA10/01H·ZUR18/01H·MTA31/01A·GUD08/02H·FGU15/02A·PIE22/02H·SIR01/03H·BIR08/03A·BAL14/03
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.801.600.530.601.07
vs Stronger (19)0.791.051.000.570.671.33
vs Similar (4)2.500.003.000.001.000.00
vs Weaker (7)1.140.571.600.800.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MelitaMelita

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L31W21W10W10W10W02L01L10WH·BIR21/12H·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02A·PIE08/03H·ST.14/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.070.541.000.821.12
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (24)0.381.080.301.100.431.07
vs Weaker (5)2.201.201.501.002.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (6)
€2m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
SU wins
0
Draws
1
MEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Swieqi United vs Melita · H/A from SU
DateH/AGameScore
07/01/24AMelita Vs SU4-1
16/12/22HSU Vs Melita2-0

Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26ABalzan FC Vs SU1-2
08/03/26HSU Vs Birzebbuga2-2
01/03/26HSU Vs Sirens2-0
22/02/26APietà Hotspurs Vs SU1-3
15/02/26HSU Vs Fgura United2-1
08/02/26AGudja United Vs SU0-2
31/01/26HSU Vs Mtarfa8-0
18/01/26HSU Vs Zurrieq3-1
10/01/26AMgarr United Vs SU5-1
21/12/25HSU Vs Pietà Hotspurs3-1

MelitaMelita

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26HMEL Vs St. Andrews3-0
08/03/26APietà Hotspurs Vs MEL1-0
28/02/26ABirzebbuga Vs MEL2-1
22/02/26HMEL Vs Sirens2-0
14/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs MEL0-1
08/02/26HMEL Vs Balzan FC2-0
01/02/26ASanta Lucía Vs MEL2-2
17/01/26AZebbug Rangers Vs MEL1-4
11/01/26HMEL Vs Marsa3-2
21/12/25HMEL Vs Birzebbuga0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Swieqi United
Swieqi United
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.86
HomeWWWWD2.04
AwayDLWWW1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%62%46%
AVG goals3.083.332.85
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %60%71%50%
Over 3.5 %44%54%35%
Scored1.842.211.50
Conceded1.241.121.35
BTTS62%67%58%
Clean Sheet24%21%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Melita
Melita
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.26
HomeLWWWW1.33
AwayWDWLL1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%31%
AVG goals3.083.252.92
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %40%42%38%
Scored1.481.541.42
Conceded1.601.711.50
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet22%33%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Balzan FCBalzan FC2248
68%
2.2
5021+29
3.2
86%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.0
-
2Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2247
64%
2.1
4926+23
3.4
91%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3BirzebbugaBirzebbuga2347
61%
2.0
4828+20
3.3
78%
65%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1212.11.2
-
4SirensSirens2235
50%
1.6
5033+17
3.8
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.5
-
5MelitaMelita2135
52%
1.7
3928+11
3.2
81%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
4234+8
3.5
82%
64%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
7Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2233
41%
1.5
4133+8
3.4
82%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
8Fgura UnitedFgura United2232
45%
1.5
4137+4
3.5
86%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
9Gudja UnitedGudja United2232
36%
1.5
2925+4
2.5
73%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
10Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2230
32%
1.4
4031+9
3.2
82%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
11ZurrieqZurrieq2227
36%
1.2
3638-2
3.4
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
12St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2227
36%
1.2
2638-12
2.9
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
13Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2221
23%
1.0
2633-7
2.7
68%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2220
23%
0.9
2345-22
3.1
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
15MarsaMarsa2219
18%
0.9
3238-6
3.2
82%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
16MtarfaMtarfa224
5%
0.2
1094-84
4.7
95%
77%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.3
-
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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