Swieqi United’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 1-1 draw against Birzebbuga, contrasts with Santa Lucía’s two-game winning streak and a 5-1 triumph over Mtarfa, hinting at a lively contest. The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance, while a home win sits at 33% and a draw at 23%. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9% probability. Swieqi United, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, whereas Santa Lucía, on the road against a weaker side, nets only 0.67 goals and concedes 2.67. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (96.2%), Under 6.5 (91.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.3%), Over 1.5 (89.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (85.3%), Away +2 handicap (83.3%), and Under 5.5 (82.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swieqi United win
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía win
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Swieqi United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.33
2.56
1.12
1.57
1.57
vs Stronger (19)
1.79
1.58
2.14
1.14
1.58
1.83
vs Similar (5)
3.00
1.00
3.50
1.25
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.83
2.40
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Lucía
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
1.73
1.53
1.93
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.35
1.75
1.25
2.25
1.42
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
2.10
1.71
1.86
0.67
2.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.6%
Under 1.5
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.3%
Under 2.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.6%
Under 3.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
72.1%
No
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.0%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
7.2%
2-1
7.1%
1-3
5.6%
2-3
4.8%
0-2
4.8%
3-2
4.1%
Swieqi United goals ↓
Santa Lucía goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
3.9%
4.8%
3.3%
1.7%
1
3.2%
9.0%
8.3%
5.6%
2.8%
2
3.5%
7.1%
7.2%
4.8%
2.5%
3
2.0%
4.1%
4.1%
2.8%
1.4%
4
0.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.2%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swieqi United goals (down), columns = Santa Lucía goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Swieqi United is 0.77 points better than Santa Lucía in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Swieqi United is 0.41 goals better than Santa Lucía in terms of goals scored per game (2.23 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Swieqi United is 0.23 goals better than Santa Lucía in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Swieqi United or Draw
55.5%
Avg Implied -
33%
23%
45%
covers Swieqi United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United or Santa Lucía
77.1%
Avg Implied -
33%
23%
45%
covers Swieqi United + Santa Lucía
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Santa Lucía
67.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
23%
45%
covers Draw + Santa Lucía
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5
Over
86.8%
Under
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 3.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Swieqi United, so a minus line means Swieqi United give that many goals of a start and Santa Lucía receive them. At -1, Swieqi United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Swieqi United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Swieqi United)
Swieqi United -2
6.9%
Draw -2
9.8%
Santa Lucía +2
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Swieqi United)
Swieqi United -1
16.7%
Draw -1
15.9%
Santa Lucía +1
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Swieqi United)
Swieqi United +1
55.5%
Draw +1
18.8%
Santa Lucía -1
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Swieqi United)
Swieqi United +2
74.3%
Draw +2
13.6%
Santa Lucía -2
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swieqi United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.00
0.69
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (19)
0.84
0.63
0.71
0.57
0.92
0.67
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.33
1.20
0.40
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Lucía
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.55
0.88
0.38
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.60
0.71
0.86
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swieqi United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.56
0.44
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (19)
0.95
0.95
1.43
0.57
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (5)
2.00
0.00
2.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.50
1.20
0.60
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Santa Lucía
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
0.93
0.93
1.27
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
0.80
0.88
0.88
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Fgura United
Gudja United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars