Swieqi United’s recent unbeaten run at home has seen them average 2.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against stronger opposition, while Sirens, still recovering from three straight defeats, have managed 2.0 goals scored and 1.67 conceded on the road against weaker teams. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an average of 3.9 goals, most likely totaling three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-2 for Sirens, carrying an 8.6% chance. The favored outcome is an away win, with probabilities of 26% for a home win, 21% for a draw, and 53% for a Sirens victory. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 95.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.2%, Over 1.5 at 90.7%, Under 6.5 at 90.2%, Away over 0.5 goals at 89.8%, Away +2 handicap at 87.6%, Under 5.5 at 80.4%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 80.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Swieqi United win
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sirens win
52.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Swieqi United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.33
2.56
1.12
1.57
1.57
vs Stronger (19)
1.79
1.58
2.14
1.14
1.58
1.83
vs Similar (5)
3.00
1.00
3.50
1.25
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.83
2.40
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sirens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.63
1.79
1.93
2.38
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
2.26
1.63
1.89
2.11
2.60
1.20
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
1.64
1.60
1.60
2.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.7%
Under 1.5
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.3%
Under 2.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
72.3%
No
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.6%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.9%
1-3
6.6%
2-1
6.0%
0-2
5.4%
2-3
5.2%
0-3
4.1%
Swieqi United goals ↓
Sirens goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
4.0%
5.4%
4.1%
2.4%
1
2.5%
8.3%
8.6%
6.6%
3.8%
2
2.6%
6.0%
6.9%
5.2%
3.0%
3
1.4%
3.2%
3.6%
2.8%
1.6%
4
0.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Swieqi United goals (down), columns = Sirens goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
PietĂ Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa LucĂa
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Swieqi United is 0.55 points better than Sirens in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
PietĂ Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa LucĂa
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Swieqi United is 0.05 goals worse than Sirens in terms of goals scored per game (2.23 vs 2.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa LucĂa
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
PietĂ Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Swieqi United is 0.32 goals better than Sirens in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Swieqi United or Draw
47.4%
Avg Implied -
26%
21%
53%
covers Swieqi United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United or Sirens
78.5%
Avg Implied -
26%
21%
53%
covers Swieqi United + Sirens
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sirens
74.1%
Avg Implied -
26%
21%
53%
covers Draw + Sirens
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 3.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 0.5
Over
89.8%
Under
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 1.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 2.5
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 3.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Swieqi United, so a minus line means Swieqi United give that many goals of a start and Sirens receive them. At -1, Swieqi United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Swieqi United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Swieqi United)
Swieqi United -2
4.7%
Draw -2
7.7%
Sirens +2
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Swieqi United)
Swieqi United -1
12.4%
Draw -1
13.5%
Sirens +1
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Swieqi United)
Swieqi United +1
47.4%
Draw +1
19.7%
Sirens -1
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Swieqi United)
Swieqi United +2
67.1%
Draw +2
15.8%
Sirens -2
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Swieqi United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.00
0.69
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (19)
0.84
0.63
0.71
0.57
0.92
0.67
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.33
1.20
0.40
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sirens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.86
0.64
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.58
0.89
0.78
1.10
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.55
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Swieqi United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.56
0.44
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (19)
0.95
0.95
1.43
0.57
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (5)
2.00
0.00
2.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.50
1.20
0.60
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sirens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.07
0.93
1.29
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.26
1.05
1.00
1.33
1.50
0.80
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
1.09
0.80
1.20
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Swieqi United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Swieqi United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swieqi United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
PietĂ Hotspurs
Melita
Santa LucĂa
Fgura United
Gudja United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars