Szentlőrinc SE face Gyirmót SE in a match that feels almost evenly split, with the model favouring a home win at 37%. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a modestly high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.3% chance, a tidy draw that reflects the tight balance. Szentlőrinc’s home form against stronger opposition shows a low 0.33 average of goals scored and a 0.67 average conceded, while Gyirmót’s away record against weaker teams boasts 2.0 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded. The model’s selections include an 77.2% chance of Over 1.5 goals and a 70.3% chance of Under 3.5 goals, each with their own probabilities. The win-draw-away percentages are 37%, 28%, and 35% respectively, leaving no clear favourite beyond the home win pick. All suggested picks are listed with their exact probabilities, and the analysis remains neutral and concise.
Results analysis
The match saw Szentlőrinc SE extend their run after two straight defeats, while Gyirmót SE struggled with a similar losing streak. The Pythia model’s favourite, Home win, proved correct as Szentlőrinc secured a 2-0 victory. The model’s pre-match probability for a home win was 37%. The suggested picks were also largely accurate: Over 1.5, with a 77.2% probability, hit; Under 3.5, with a 70.3% probability, hit. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s predictions and the overall accuracy of its selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Szentlőrinc SE win✓ Hit
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Szentlőrinc SE
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.40
1.14
1.29
1.06
1.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.86
0.33
0.67
0.75
2.75
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.26
1.36
1.45
1.17
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyirmot SE) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gyirmot SE
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.27
1.57
1.36
1.62
1.19
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.52
1.50
1.40
1.64
1.64
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.75
1.75
1.25
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Szentlőrinc SE) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.2%
Under 1.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
7.5%
2-0 ✓
6.2%
0-2
5.9%
Szentlőrinc SE goals ↓
Gyirmot SE goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.5%
5.9%
2.7%
0.9%
1
7.7%
13%
8.2%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.2%
8.4%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.9%
3.9%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Szentlőrinc SE goals (down), columns = Gyirmot SE goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kisvarda FC
1.93
Kazincbarcikai
1.77
Vasas
1.73
Kozarmisleny FC
1.57
Szentlőrinc SE
1.57
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.47
Szeged 2011
1.40
Budapest Honved
1.33
BVSC
1.27
Csakvar
1.20
Budafoki LC
1.17
Soroksar
1.17
Ajka
1.17
Bekescsaba 1912
1.10
Gyirmot SE
1.03
Tatabánya
0.80
Szentlőrinc SE is 0.53 points better than Gyirmot SE in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kisvarda FC
1.90
Kazincbarcikai
1.70
Vasas
1.57
Kozarmisleny FC
1.50
Budafoki LC
1.47
Szentlőrinc SE
1.47
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.47
Soroksar
1.40
Gyirmot SE
1.37
Csakvar
1.37
Budapest Honved
1.37
Szeged 2011
1.20
Ajka
1.03
BVSC
1.03
Bekescsaba 1912
1.00
Tatabánya
0.93
Szentlőrinc SE is 0.10 goals better than Gyirmot SE in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kazincbarcikai
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.07
BVSC
1.07
Szentlőrinc SE
1.07
Vasas
1.17
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.17
Bekescsaba 1912
1.27
Ajka
1.27
Budapest Honved
1.30
Kozarmisleny FC
1.40
Kisvarda FC
1.47
Gyirmot SE
1.53
Soroksar
1.57
Csakvar
1.67
Budafoki LC
1.77
Tatabánya
2.00
Szentlőrinc SE is 0.47 goals better than Gyirmot SE in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Szentlőrinc SE
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.39
0.55
0.45
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyirmot SE) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gyirmot SE
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
0.86
0.50
0.69
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.33
0.90
0.40
0.73
0.27
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.50
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Szentlőrinc SE) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Szentlőrinc SE over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Szentlőrinc SE over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Szentlőrinc SE over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Szentlőrinc SE
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.64
0.79
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.00
0.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.87
0.82
1.00
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gyirmot SE) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gyirmot SE
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.71
0.86
0.94
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
1.19
0.60
1.00
0.91
1.36
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Szentlőrinc SE) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Szentlőrinc SE over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Szentlőrinc SE over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Szentlőrinc SE over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gyirmot SE over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Hungary: NB II 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →