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Tallinna Kalev vs Legion Result & Analysis

Date: 22/10/2022
Time: 11:30
Final 2-0
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
Vs
50%
23%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Legion
Legion
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Tallinna Kalev win✓ Hit
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Legion win✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-725L27L32W32W12L03L31W10W02L21WH·TAM13/08H·PAI20/08A·VAP26/08A·LEG30/08H·KUR04/09H·FC 11/09A·TAM17/09H·VAP01/10H·TRA08/10A·PAI15/10
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.501.132.471.272.53
vs Stronger (12)0.673.500.673.500.673.50
vs Similar (18)1.561.831.441.781.671.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Legion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LegionLegion

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1012L02L23L10W16L11D010L14L11D32WA·TRA20/08A·TAM27/08H·TAL30/08A·VAP04/09A·TRA11/09H·PAI14/09A·PAI18/09A·FLO01/10H·FC 08/10H·KUR14/10
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.471.362.070.692.81
vs Stronger (15)0.533.330.882.620.144.14
vs Similar (15)1.471.602.001.331.111.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.1%
Under 2.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.4%
Under 3.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.0%
No
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
6.6%
1-2
6.6%
2-0 ✓
6.5%
3-1
6.2%
1-0
5.5%
3-2
4.5%
Tallinna Kalev goals ↓
Legion goals →
01234
04.1%3.6%3.2%1.6%0.6%
15.5%10%6.6%3.1%1.1%
26.5%9.3%6.6%3.2%1.1%
34.4%6.2%4.5%2.1%0.8%
42.2%3.2%2.3%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tallinna Kalev goals (down), columns = Legion goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.69
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Paide
1.81
Kalju Nomme
1.81
Elva
1.50
Kuressaare
1.39
Tammeka
1.08
Trans Narva
1.06
Tallinna Kalev
0.97
Legion
0.76
Vaprus
0.31
Tallinna Kalev is 0.21 points better than Legion in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 0.76).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.61
Paide
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.06
Kalju Nomme
1.64
Kuressaare
1.36
Trans Narva
1.19
Tallinna Kalev
1.17
Tammeka
1.06
Legion
0.97
Vaprus
0.89
Elva
0.50
Tallinna Kalev is 0.19 goals better than Legion in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.97).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.58
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.69
Kalju Nomme
0.83
Paide
1.03
Kuressaare
1.42
Elva
1.50
Tammeka
1.58
Trans Narva
1.61
Legion
2.18
Tallinna Kalev
2.56
Vaprus
2.67
Tallinna Kalev is 0.37 goals worse than Legion in terms of goals conceded per game (2.56 vs 2.18).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L05L01L20W11D02L20W10W02L01LH·TAM13/08H·PAI20/08A·VAP26/08A·LEG30/08H·KUR04/09H·FC 11/09A·TAM17/09H·VAP01/10H·TRA08/10A·PAI15/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.270.401.200.401.33
vs Stronger (12)0.252.170.332.000.172.33
vs Similar (18)0.500.670.440.670.560.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Legion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LegionLegion

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L01L02L00D12L11D06L02L11D10WA·TRA20/08A·TAM27/08H·TAL30/08A·VAP04/09A·TRA11/09H·PAI14/09A·PAI18/09A·FLO01/10H·FC 08/10H·KUR14/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.130.571.140.311.12
vs Stronger (15)0.271.730.501.620.001.86
vs Similar (15)0.600.530.670.500.560.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Legion over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Legion over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Legion over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L22D31W12L01L01L11D00D00D20WH·TAM13/08H·PAI20/08A·VAP26/08A·LEG30/08H·KUR04/09H·FC 11/09A·TAM17/09H·VAP01/10H·TRA08/10A·PAI15/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.230.731.270.871.20
vs Stronger (12)0.421.330.331.500.501.17
vs Similar (18)1.061.171.001.111.111.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Legion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LegionLegion

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L21W10W04L00D04L12L00D22DA·TRA20/08A·TAM27/08H·TAL30/08A·VAP04/09A·TRA11/09H·PAI14/09A·PAI18/09A·FLO01/10H·FC 08/10H·KUR14/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.330.790.930.381.69
vs Stronger (15)0.271.600.381.000.142.29
vs Similar (15)0.871.071.330.830.561.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Legion over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Legion over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Legion over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
TK wins
2
Draws
0
LEG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tallinna Kalev vs Legion · H/A from TK
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/22ALegion Vs TK2-3
28/05/22HTK Vs Legion2-2
16/04/22ALegion Vs TK1-1

Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22APaide Vs TK1-2
08/10/22HTK Vs Trans Narva0-2
01/10/22HTK Vs Vaprus1-0
17/09/22ATammeka Vs TK1-3
11/09/22HTK Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-3
04/09/22HTK Vs Kuressaare1-2
30/08/22ALegion Vs TK2-3
26/08/22AVaprus Vs TK2-3
20/08/22HTK Vs Paide2-7
13/08/22HTK Vs Tammeka2-5

LegionLegion

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/10/22HLEG Vs Kuressaare3-2
08/10/22HLEG Vs FC Levadia Tallinn1-1
01/10/22AFlora Tallinn Vs LEG4-1
18/09/22APaide Vs LEG10-0
14/09/22HLEG Vs Paide1-1
11/09/22ATrans Narva Vs LEG6-1
04/09/22AVaprus Vs LEG0-1
30/08/22HLEG Vs Tallinna Kalev2-3
27/08/22ATammeka Vs LEG2-0
20/08/22ATrans Narva Vs LEG2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW0.94
HomeLLLWL0.87
AwayLWWWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%27%29%
AVG goals3.913.604.18
Over 1.5 %84%73%94%
Over 2.5 %72%67%76%
Over 3.5 %50%33%65%
Scored1.191.131.24
Conceded2.722.472.94
BTTS56%40%71%
Clean Sheet9%20%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Legion
Legion
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDW0.69
HomeLLDDW0.88
AwayLWLLL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%19%12%
AVG goals3.383.253.50
Over 1.5 %84%88%81%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored0.971.250.69
Conceded2.412.002.81
BTTS53%69%38%
Clean Sheet9%12%6%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3697
86%
2.7
9421+73
3.2
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.60.6
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
67%
2.2
7425+49
2.8
69%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.10.7
-
3PaidePaide3665
53%
1.8
8437+47
3.4
78%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.31.0
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3665
53%
1.8
5930+29
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.60.8
-
5KuressaareKuressaare3650
36%
1.4
4951-2
2.8
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.41.4
-
6TammekaTammeka3639
28%
1.1
3857-19
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
7Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
28%
1.1
4358-15
2.8
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.6
-
8Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3635
28%
1.0
4292-50
3.7
86%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
9LegionLegion3829
18%
0.8
3783-46
3.2
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
10VaprusVaprus3611
8%
0.3
3296-64
3.6
75%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.92.7
-
11ElvaElva23
50%
1.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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