The model favours an away win, with a 47% chance for Kalju Nomme and a 28% chance for a draw, leaving Tammeka a 25% chance of victory. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.5% probability. Tammeka, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded, while Kalju Nomme, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.3%), Away +2 handicap (90.4%) and Under 4.5 (88.5%). Tammeka’s recent form shows a 2-game winning run, while Kalju Nomme is coming off a defeat, adding context to the predicted outcome.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tammeka win
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme win
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tammeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
2.00
3.29
1.21
1.50
2.69
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
2.67
1.40
1.80
0.71
3.29
vs Similar (18)
3.22
1.56
4.33
0.89
2.11
2.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.97
2.13
1.20
2.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.75
1.08
1.57
1.29
4.40
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.89
2.62
1.12
1.40
0.70
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
10.0%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.8%
0-2
8.3%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
5.0%
Tammeka goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
10.0%
8.3%
4.1%
1.5%
1
7.1%
14%
9.1%
4.5%
1.7%
2
4.6%
6.8%
5.0%
2.5%
0.9%
3
1.7%
2.5%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tammeka goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Tammeka is 0.12 points better than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Tammeka is 0.38 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Tammeka is 0.88 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tammeka or Draw
55.3%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
45%
covers Tammeka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka or Kalju Nomme
71.6%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
45%
covers Tammeka + Kalju Nomme
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kalju Nomme
73.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
45%
covers Draw + Kalju Nomme
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tammeka over/under 0.5
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tammeka, so a minus line means Tammeka give that many goals of a start and Kalju Nomme receive them. At -1, Tammeka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tammeka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tammeka)
Tammeka -2
3.3%
Draw -2
7.6%
Kalju Nomme +2
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tammeka)
Tammeka -1
10.9%
Draw -1
16.0%
Kalju Nomme +1
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tammeka)
Tammeka +1
55.3%
Draw +1
22.0%
Kalju Nomme -1
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tammeka)
Tammeka +2
77.2%
Draw +2
13.9%
Kalju Nomme -2
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tammeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.79
0.93
0.62
1.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.83
0.80
1.60
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.94
2.33
0.56
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.43
1.00
0.33
1.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.50
0.71
0.43
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.25
0.25
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tammeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.50
0.29
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.60
0.20
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.61
2.00
0.33
1.22
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.58
0.86
0.86
2.20
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
1.38
0.88
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Tammeka's squad is €2m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Tammeka and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Tammeka and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Tammeka's defence is €2m less valuable than Kalju Nomme's (€1m vs €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United