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Tammeka vs Laagri Result & Analysis

Date: 05/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 2-1
Tammeka
Tammeka
Vs
47%
25%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Tammeka a 47% win probability against Laagri in the Estonia: Meistriliiga on 2026-07-05, with 25% for the draw and 29% for Laagri. The model estimates around 3.3 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (85%).

Results analysis

Tammeka finished 2-1 against Laagri (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 47% home win, 25% draw and 29% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (85%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tammeka win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D14L12L01L03L05L22D52W12L20WH·FC 13/09H·VAP16/09A·FLO20/09H·KUR26/09A·FC 05/10A·PAI18/10A·LAA22/10H·TAL25/10A·KAL02/11H·TRA08/11
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.301.601.401.073.20
vs Stronger (16)0.942.311.121.500.753.12
vs Similar (11)1.182.451.001.401.333.33
vs Weaker (3)4.001.675.001.002.003.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W30W23L12L12L13L22D10W41W22DH·KUR17/09H·PAI20/09H·KAL24/09H·VAP27/09H·FLO04/10H·KAL19/10H·TAM22/10H·TRA25/10H·TAL02/11H·FC 08/11
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.901.561.561.362.29
vs Stronger (14)1.002.211.252.000.672.50
vs Similar (3)2.001.671.000.002.502.50
vs Weaker (13)1.851.622.001.291.672.00
Clean sheet %7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.5%
Under 3.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1 ✓
9.2%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
1-0
6.0%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
4.8%
Tammeka goals ↓
Laagri goals →
01234
04.8%4.4%3.9%1.8%0.7%
16.0%11%7.1%3.4%1.2%
26.4%9.2%6.6%3.1%1.1%
34.0%5.7%4.1%1.9%0.7%
41.8%2.6%1.9%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tammeka goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.17
Trans Narva
1.17
Nõmme United
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Laagri
1.00
Tammeka is 0.50 points better than Laagri in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.40
Kalju Nomme
2.33
Laagri
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Vaprus
1.67
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.25
Nõmme United
1.17
Trans Narva
1.17
Kuressaare
1.14
Tammeka is 0.75 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Flora Tallinn
1.20
Paide
1.60
Laagri
1.67
Kuressaare
1.71
Vaprus
1.83
Trans Narva
1.83
Nõmme United
2.33
Tammeka
2.75
Tammeka is 1.08 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (2.75 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (21)
€3m
FT (20)
€3m
PAI (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€1m
PAI (8)
€1m
KN (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAI (5)
€1m
KN (2)
€1m
FT (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
PAI (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Tammeka vs Laagri · H/A from TAM
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/25ALaagri Vs TAM2-2
31/08/25HTAM Vs Laagri3-0
13/06/25HTAM Vs Laagri2-1
18/04/25ALaagri Vs TAM4-1
10/11/23HTAM Vs Laagri2-1
09/07/23ALaagri Vs TAM3-0
07/06/23HTAM Vs Laagri2-0
23/04/23ALaagri Vs TAM2-3

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25HTAM Vs Trans Narva2-0
02/11/25AKalju Nomme Vs TAM2-1
25/10/25HTAM Vs Tallinna Kalev5-2
22/10/25ALaagri Vs TAM2-2
18/10/25APaide Vs TAM5-0
05/10/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs TAM3-0
26/09/25HTAM Vs Kuressaare0-1
20/09/25AFlora Tallinn Vs TAM2-1
16/09/25HTAM Vs Vaprus1-4
13/09/25HTAM Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-2

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25HLAA Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-2
02/11/25HLAA Vs Tallinna Kalev4-1
25/10/25HLAA Vs Trans Narva1-0
22/10/25HLAA Vs Tammeka2-2
19/10/25HLAA Vs Kalju Nomme1-3
04/10/25HLAA Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
27/09/25HLAA Vs Vaprus1-2
24/09/25HLAA Vs Kalju Nomme2-3
20/09/25HLAA Vs Paide3-0
17/09/25HLAA Vs Kuressaare2-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Tammeka
Tammeka
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW0.96
HomeDLLWW1.08
AwayLLLDL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals3.563.443.68
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %78%72%84%
Over 3.5 %48%44%52%
Scored1.381.601.16
Conceded2.181.842.52
BTTS64%60%68%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWD1.32
HomeLDWWD1.44
AwayLWLLW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals3.583.203.96
Over 1.5 %88%80%96%
Over 2.5 %76%68%84%
Over 3.5 %50%40%60%
Scored1.881.881.88
Conceded1.701.322.08
BTTS62%56%68%
Clean Sheet18%28%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kalju NommeKalju Nomme614
67%
2.3
144+10
3.0
83%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.30.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn510
60%
2.0
125+7
3.4
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.0
-
3Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn59
60%
1.8
96+3
3.0
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.81.2
-
4PaidePaide58
40%
1.6
88+0
3.2
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.6
-
5VaprusVaprus67
33%
1.2
1011-1
3.5
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
6KuressaareKuressaare77
29%
1.0
812-4
2.9
57%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
7Trans NarvaTrans Narva67
33%
1.2
711-4
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
8LaagriLaagri66
33%
1.0
1210+2
3.7
83%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.7
-
9TammekaTammeka46
50%
1.5
511-6
4.0
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.8
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United66
33%
1.0
714-7
3.5
83%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.3
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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