Tammeka’s recent four-game winning streak and a 2-0 victory over Trans Narva give them a clear edge, while Nõmme United’s five-match losing run and a 1-2 loss to Laagri leave them vulnerable at home. The model favours a home win, with a 56% chance, a 21% draw probability and a 23% chance of an away triumph. The expected total is 3.7 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 21% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Tammeka, a 9.1% chance. Tammeka averages 2.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Nõmme United averages 3.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Under 6.5 (91.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.8%), Home +2 handicap (89.7%), Over 1.5 (89.4%), Under 5.5 (82.7%) and Away under 2.5 goals (82.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Tammeka win
55.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United win
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Tammeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
2.00
3.29
1.21
1.50
2.69
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
2.67
1.40
1.80
0.71
3.29
vs Similar (18)
3.22
1.56
4.33
0.89
2.11
2.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.03
1.33
3.60
1.13
2.47
1.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
2.95
1.32
2.92
1.42
3.00
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
7.00
0.33
9.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.8%
Under 2.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.0%
Under 3.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.3%
No
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.8%
3-1
6.9%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.3%
1-2
5.8%
3-2
5.0%
3-0
4.8%
Tammeka goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
2.7%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
1
4.7%
8.8%
5.8%
2.8%
1.0%
2
6.3%
9.1%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.8%
6.9%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9%
4
2.7%
3.9%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tammeka goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Tammeka is 1.12 points better than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Tammeka is 0.50 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Tammeka is 0.62 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Tammeka or Draw
77.0%
Avg Implied -
55%
21%
23%
covers Tammeka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka or Nõmme United
78.5%
Avg Implied -
55%
21%
23%
covers Tammeka + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme United
44.5%
Avg Implied -
55%
21%
23%
covers Draw + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Tammeka over/under 0.5
Over
89.7%
Under
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5
Over
66.3%
Under
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 3.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Tammeka, so a minus line means Tammeka give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United receive them. At -1, Tammeka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Tammeka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Tammeka)
Tammeka -2
18.4%
Draw -2
16.7%
Nõmme United +2
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Tammeka)
Tammeka -1
35.1%
Draw -1
20.4%
Nõmme United +1
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Tammeka)
Tammeka +1
77.0%
Draw +1
12.6%
Nõmme United -1
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Tammeka)
Tammeka +2
89.6%
Draw +2
6.7%
Nõmme United -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Tammeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.79
0.93
0.62
1.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.83
0.80
1.60
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.94
2.33
0.56
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.60
1.87
0.73
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.64
1.50
0.92
1.60
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Tammeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.50
0.29
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.60
0.20
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.61
2.00
0.33
1.22
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.73
1.73
0.40
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.68
1.42
0.50
1.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Tammeka and Nõmme United have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Tammeka and Nõmme United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Tammeka and Nõmme United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Tammeka and Nõmme United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva