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Tammeka vs Paide Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
Tammeka
Tammeka
Vs
25%
32%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Tammeka’s defensive record at home is fragile, conceding more than one goal per match against stronger opposition, while Paide’s away form shows a solid 0.7 goals conceded to weaker sides. The model projects a tight 2-goal affair, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% chance, a clear indicator that both sides will struggle to break the deadlock. The predicted outcome favours an away win, with a 43% chance, followed by a 32% draw and a 25% home win. Paide’s 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded at home suggest they will outscore Tammeka’s 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selection includes Under 3.5 at 84.9%. The probabilities for the match result are 25% home win, 32% draw, 43% away win. All figures are presented exactly as supplied.

Results analysis

The win extends Tammeka’s four-game winning streak, while Paide’s two-game run ended in defeat. The final score was 1-2, an away win that matched the model’s pick. The model had assigned a 43% probability to an away victory, and it proved correct. The most likely total of 2 goals, with a 28% chance, also materialised. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5, hit with an 84.9% probability. All other suggested picks were settled as described. The outcome confirms the model’s accuracy in forecasting both the result and the over-under, reinforcing confidence in its predictive framework.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tammeka win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win✓ Hit
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D13L11D11D36L00D11D30W14L12LH·FC 23/07A·KUR31/07A·TAL05/08H·KAL13/08A·PAI19/08H·VAP26/08A·KUR02/09H·TRA15/09A·KAL23/09H·FLO27/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.630.931.130.932.13
vs Stronger (15)0.801.930.621.381.002.57
vs Similar (15)1.071.331.290.860.881.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L40W10W11D63W00D20W01L30W12LH·B3620/07A·KUR23/07A·LAA06/08H·TAL12/08H·TAM19/08A·TRA27/08H·KAL03/09A·FC 16/09H·VAP23/09A·TAL27/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.871.071.001.070.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.450.910.671.000.200.80
vs Weaker (19)1.420.841.331.001.500.70
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.0%
Under 1.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.6%
Under 2.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.1%
Under 3.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.3%
No
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
14.2%
0-1
14.1%
1-0
9.7%
0-2
9.2%
1-2 ✓
7.9%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
4.7%
Tammeka goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
014%14%9.2%3.7%1.1%
19.7%14%7.9%3.1%0.9%
24.7%5.6%3.3%1.3%0.4%
31.3%1.6%0.9%0.4%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tammeka goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Paide
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Tammeka is 0.66 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Tammeka is 0.36 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Flora Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Tammeka is 0.79 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 0.94).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TammekaTammeka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D00D10W33D00D11D00D11D10WH·FC 23/07A·KUR31/07A·TAL05/08H·KAL13/08A·PAI19/08H·VAP26/08A·KUR02/09H·TRA15/09A·KAL23/09H·FLO27/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.330.600.600.87
vs Stronger (15)0.600.930.500.750.711.14
vs Similar (15)0.330.530.140.430.500.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W00D00D33D00D10W00D30W01LH·B3620/07A·KUR23/07A·LAA06/08H·TAL12/08H·TAM19/08A·TRA27/08H·KAL03/09A·FC 16/09H·VAP23/09A·TAL27/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.400.600.470.400.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.090.360.170.330.000.40
vs Weaker (19)0.740.420.890.560.600.30
Clean sheet %77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TammekaTammeka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L11D01L03L00D00D30W03L02LH·FC 23/07A·KUR31/07A·TAL05/08H·KAL13/08A·PAI19/08H·VAP26/08A·KUR02/09H·TRA15/09A·KAL23/09H·FLO27/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.900.600.530.331.27
vs Stronger (15)0.201.000.120.620.291.43
vs Similar (15)0.730.801.140.430.381.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W10W11D30W00D10W01L00D11DH·B3620/07A·KUR23/07A·LAA06/08H·TAL12/08H·TAM19/08A·TRA27/08H·KAL03/09A·FC 16/09H·VAP23/09A·TAL27/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.470.530.670.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.360.550.500.670.200.40
vs Weaker (19)0.680.420.440.440.900.40
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Tammeka's squad is €2m less valuable than Paide's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Tammeka and Paide have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Tammeka and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Tammeka and Paide have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
0
TAM wins
3
Draws
4
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tammeka vs Paide · H/A from TAM
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23APaide Vs TAM6-3
13/05/23APaide Vs TAM0-0
19/03/23HTAM Vs Paide0-0
12/11/22HTAM Vs Paide1-1
31/07/22APaide Vs TAM3-0
24/05/22APaide Vs TAM3-0
20/03/22HTAM Vs Paide1-3

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/23HTAM Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
23/09/23AKalju Nomme Vs TAM4-1
15/09/23HTAM Vs Trans Narva3-0
02/09/23AKuressaare Vs TAM1-1
26/08/23HTAM Vs Vaprus0-0
19/08/23APaide Vs TAM6-3
13/08/23HTAM Vs Kalju Nomme1-1
05/08/23ATallinna Kalev Vs TAM1-1
31/07/23AKuressaare Vs TAM3-1
23/07/23HTAM Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-0

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/23ATallinna Kalev Vs PAI2-1
23/09/23HPAI Vs Vaprus3-0
16/09/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs PAI1-0
03/09/23HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme2-0
27/08/23ATrans Narva Vs PAI0-0
19/08/23HPAI Vs Tammeka6-3
12/08/23HPAI Vs Tallinna Kalev1-1
06/08/23ALaagri Vs PAI0-1
23/07/23AKuressaare Vs PAI0-4
20/07/23HPAI Vs B36 Torshavn0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tammeka
Tammeka
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLL0.98
HomeDDDWL1.20
AwayLDLDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%28%12%
AVG goals2.522.202.84
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %44%40%48%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored1.001.040.96
Conceded1.521.161.88
BTTS48%40%56%
Clean Sheet26%44%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.44
HomeLDWWW1.42
AwayWWDLL1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%33%
AVG goals2.462.462.46
Over 1.5 %64%62%67%
Over 2.5 %40%38%42%
Over 3.5 %18%15%21%
Scored1.481.541.42
Conceded0.980.921.04
BTTS44%35%54%
Clean Sheet38%46%29%
Corners8.008.008.00
Cards10.0010.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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