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Tammeka vs Paide Result & Analysis

Date: 23/08/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Tammeka
Tammeka
Vs
19%
25%
56%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Tammeka win✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win✓ Hit
56.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-813L21W32W02L23L20W12L13L14L18LA·FLO30/05H·LAA13/06A·KUR17/06H·PAI28/06A·TAL06/07A·KUR11/07H·FLO20/07H·KAL03/08A·TRA09/08A·VAP15/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.302.331.362.001.252.62
vs Stronger (12)0.672.330.712.290.602.40
vs Similar (18)1.722.332.001.711.552.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W03L32W41W20W02L06L20W22D51WA·TAM28/06H·FC 04/07A·MAG10/07H·MAG17/07H·TRA20/07H·AIK24/07A·AIK31/07H·LAA03/08H·TAL09/08H·KUR16/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.072.120.881.541.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.671.421.831.171.501.67
vs Weaker (18)2.000.832.270.731.571.00
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.1%
Under 2.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.7%
0-1 ✓
9.4%
0-0
6.6%
1-3
6.2%
0-3
6.1%
2-1
5.4%
Tammeka goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
06.6%9.4%9.7%6.1%2.8%
14.6%12%9.9%6.2%2.9%
22.9%5.4%5.0%3.1%1.5%
31.0%1.8%1.7%1.1%0.5%
40.2%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Tammeka goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Tammeka is 1.11 points worse than Paide in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.94).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Tammeka is 0.44 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.75).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Tammeka is 1.42 goals worse than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (2.31 vs 0.89).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TammekaTammeka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W22D01L21W10W12L13L12L04LA·FLO30/05H·LAA13/06A·KUR17/06H·PAI28/06A·TAL06/07A·KUR11/07H·FLO20/07H·KAL03/08A·TRA09/08A·VAP15/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.130.791.290.751.00
vs Stronger (12)0.501.250.571.570.400.80
vs Similar (18)0.941.061.001.000.911.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L21W10W10W01L03L10W21W31WA·TAM28/06H·FC 04/07A·MAG10/07H·MAG17/07H·TRA20/07H·AIK24/07A·AIK31/07H·LAA03/08H·TAL09/08H·KUR16/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.631.000.530.690.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.500.920.500.670.501.17
vs Weaker (18)1.110.441.270.450.860.43
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TammekaTammeka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L10W01L02L10W00D00D02L14LA·FLO30/05H·LAA13/06A·KUR17/06H·PAI28/06A·TAL06/07A·KUR11/07H·FLO20/07H·KAL03/08A·TRA09/08A·VAP15/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.200.570.710.501.62
vs Stronger (12)0.171.080.140.710.201.60
vs Similar (18)0.781.281.000.710.641.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L11D31W10W01L03L10W01L20WA·TAM28/06H·FC 04/07A·MAG10/07H·MAG17/07H·TRA20/07H·AIK24/07A·AIK31/07H·LAA03/08H·TAL09/08H·KUR16/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.431.120.350.850.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.170.501.330.501.000.50
vs Weaker (18)0.890.391.000.270.710.57
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Tammeka's squad is €2m less valuable than Paide's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Tammeka and Paide have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Tammeka and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Tammeka and Paide have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
TAM wins
0
Draws
7
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Tammeka vs Paide · H/A from TAM
DateH/AGameScore
28/06/25HTAM Vs Paide0-2
05/04/25APaide Vs TAM1-0
26/10/24APaide Vs TAM2-0
24/08/24HTAM Vs Paide1-3
18/05/24HTAM Vs Paide1-2
20/04/24APaide Vs TAM0-1
30/09/23HTAM Vs Paide1-2
19/08/23APaide Vs TAM6-3

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/25AVaprus Vs TAM8-1
09/08/25ATrans Narva Vs TAM4-1
03/08/25HTAM Vs Kalju Nomme1-3
20/07/25HTAM Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
11/07/25AKuressaare Vs TAM0-2
06/07/25ATallinna Kalev Vs TAM3-2
28/06/25HTAM Vs Paide0-2
17/06/25AKuressaare Vs TAM2-3
13/06/25HTAM Vs Laagri2-1
30/05/25AFlora Tallinn Vs TAM3-1

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/25HPAI Vs Kuressaare5-1
09/08/25HPAI Vs Tallinna Kalev2-2
03/08/25HPAI Vs Laagri2-0
31/07/25AAIK Stockholm Vs PAI6-0
24/07/25HPAI Vs AIK Stockholm0-2
20/07/25HPAI Vs Trans Narva2-0
17/07/25HPAI Vs Magpies4-1
10/07/25AMagpies Vs PAI2-3
04/07/25HPAI Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-3
28/06/25ATammeka Vs PAI0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Tammeka
Tammeka
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.98
HomeWWLLL1.08
AwayWLWLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals3.323.203.44
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %72%68%76%
Over 3.5 %42%36%48%
Scored1.301.481.12
Conceded2.021.722.32
BTTS64%60%68%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW2.02
HomeWLWDW2.11
AwayWWWWL1.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%64%64%
AVG goals3.243.253.23
Over 1.5 %82%82%82%
Over 2.5 %62%57%68%
Over 3.5 %36%39%32%
Scored2.042.251.77
Conceded1.201.001.45
BTTS52%50%55%
Clean Sheet32%36%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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