Taraz’s recent draw against Arys and a home average of 2.17 goals scored suggest an attacking start, while their 0.83 goals conceded per game keeps the defense solid. Akademiya Ontustik, having won their last match 3-2, will bring an average of 1.58 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on the road, hinting at a balanced but slightly defensive approach. The model projects a 47% chance of a Taraz win, a 25% draw, and a 29% chance of an Akademiya Ontustik victory, making a home win the favoured result. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely total being 3 goals at a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.1% chance. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 84.5% probability. All figures are presented as percentages or exact values, with no additional commentary.
Results analysis
Taraz’s recent run of DDLWW, coming off a draw, set the stage for a home win that the model predicted with 47% probability. The forecast was right as Taraz edged Akademiya Ontustik 2-1, a result that matched the model’s pick. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals at 84.5%, also hit, with three goals scored. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the 2-1 outcome was the favoured result and the model’s predictions largely materialised. The match confirmed the home side’s form advantage and the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Taraz win✓ Hit
46.7%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.35
Edge
+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.41
Superbet
2.37
Dafabet
2.37
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.49
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Betano
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Superbet
3.40
Akademiya Ontustik win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.51
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.58
Dafabet
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Betano
2.52
10Bet
2.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Taraz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.33
1.88
0.94
1.07
1.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.21
2.17
0.83
0.92
1.58
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.77
1.80
2.00
1.73
1.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.75
1.75
1.92
2.00
1.58
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
@ 1.08-1.2%
Under 1.5
15.5%
@ 6.50+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.41-1.9%
Under 2.5
36.9%
@ 2.61+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Betfair
1.36
Under
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.49
Superbet
2.47
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.9%
@ 1.99-5.0%
Under 3.5
59.1%
@ 1.69+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.90
Under
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.6%
@ 1.37-2.7%
No
35.4%
@ 2.82+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
No
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 6.97+4.2%
2-1 ✓
9.3%@ 8.13+3.4%
1-2
7.1%@ 8.40+1.4%
2-0
6.6%@ 12.67+2.8%
2-2
6.5%@ 8.87+1.1%
1-0
6.1%@ 11.00+1.8%
3-1
5.7%@ 12.67+1.9%
0-0
4.9%@ 17.33+2.1%
Taraz goals ↓
Akademiya Ontustik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.5%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
1
6.1%
11%
7.1%
3.3%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.3%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.0%
5.7%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.8%
2.6%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Taraz goals (down), columns = Akademiya Ontustik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.17
Akademiya Ontustik
2.17
Sport Academy Kairat
1.83
Ekibastuz
1.80
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.67
Taraz
1.50
Jaiyq
1.33
Yelimay Semey 2
1.00
Astana II
1.00
Arys
0.83
Aktobe Jas
0.67
Khan Tengri
0.67
Tobol 2
0.50
Taraz is 0.67 points worse than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.40
Sport Academy Kairat
2.67
Turan Turkistan
2.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.83
Ekibastuz
1.80
Tobol 2
1.67
Aktobe Jas
1.33
Jaiyq
1.17
Yelimay Semey 2
1.00
Taraz
0.83
Khan Tengri
0.83
Arys
0.83
Astana II
0.83
Taraz is 1.17 goals worse than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.40
Sport Academy Kairat
0.50
Taraz
0.83
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Akademiya Ontustik
1.33
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.60
Yelimay Semey 2
1.67
Khan Tengri
1.67
Arys
1.83
Tobol 2
2.33
Astana II
2.50
Aktobe Jas
3.50
Taraz is 0.50 goals better than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Taraz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.88
0.44
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.58
1.08
0.42
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.73
0.80
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.67
0.83
0.83
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Taraz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.62
1.08
0.42
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.67
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.13
1.07
1.20
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.17
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.5%
1.08
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Turan Turkistan
Sport Academy Kairat
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Jaiyq
Yelimay Semey 2
Astana II
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Tobol 2