The contest between Taraz and Ekibastuz is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. The probabilities are 37% for Taraz, 30% for a draw and 32% for Ekibastuz. The expected total is 2.4 goals, so a 2-goal match is most likely, with a 1-1 scoreline at 14.4%. Taraz, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.77 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Ekibastuz, on the road, averages 1.31 goals scored and 2.38 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 4.5 (90.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.3%) and Home under 2.5 goals (87.1%). Taraz’s recent form shows a win after a mixed run, while Ekibastuz has rebounded from two defeats with a 2-4 loss. The match is poised to be a tight affair, with the home side slightly ahead according to the model.
Results analysis
Taraz’s recent win extended their good run, and the model’s pre-match favourite, Home win at 37%, proved correct as Taraz edged Ekibastuz 2-1. The match delivered a total of three goals, well below the model’s expected 2.4 and the most likely 2-goal outcome. Every suggested pick was settled and hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 4.5 (90.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.3%) and Home under 2.5 goals (87.1%). The model’s predictions were largely accurate, confirming its strong form assessment for both sides.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Taraz win✓ Hit
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Taraz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.07
1.94
2.00
1.29
2.14
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.64
2.12
1.77
2.00
1.50
2.25
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.50
7.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
2.27
2.27
1.87
1.27
2.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
5.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
7.00
vs Similar (26)
1.85
2.12
2.38
1.85
1.31
2.38
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.9%
Under 1.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.3%
Under 2.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.6%
Under 3.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.6%
1-0
10.2%
0-1
9.3%
2-1 ✓
8.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
6.0%
Taraz goals ↓
Ekibastuz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.3%
6.0%
2.3%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.1%
8.1%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.9%
3.3%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Taraz goals (down), columns = Ekibastuz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.25
Yelimay Semey
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.25
Taraz
2.25
SD Family
2.25
Aktobe
2.00
Ordabasy
2.00
Jas Qyran
2.00
Atyrau
1.80
Irtysh
1.75
AKAS
1.67
Kairat Almaty
1.50
FC Astana
1.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Ulytau
1.50
FK Aksu
1.50
Zhetisay
1.33
Okzhetpes
0.67
Kaspiy
0.50
Ekibastuz
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Kyran
0.50
Khan Tengri
0.33
Turan Turkistan
0.33
Zhetysu
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Shakhter Karagandy
0.00
Akzhayik
0.00
Maqtaaral
0.00
Taraz is 1.75 points better than Ekibastuz in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atyrau
2.80
FK Aksu
2.50
Kairat Almaty
2.00
Zhetisay
1.67
Jas Qyran
1.67
Taraz
1.50
SD Family
1.50
Kyran
1.50
AKAS
1.33
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.25
Yelimay Semey
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Aktobe
1.20
Ordabasy
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Kaspiy
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Ekibastuz
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Irtysh
0.75
FC Astana
0.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Ulytau
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Zhetysu
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Turan Turkistan
0.00
Akzhayik
0.00
Maqtaaral
0.00
Taraz is 0.50 goals better than Ekibastuz in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.00
FC Astana
0.50
Irtysh
0.50
Akademiya Ontustik
0.50
Aktobe
0.60
Taraz
0.75
Atyrau
0.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Zhetysu
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Ulytau
1.00
Yelimay Semey
1.00
AKAS
1.00
Zhetisay
1.00
Akzhayik
1.00
Jas Qyran
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.33
Turan Turkistan
1.33
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.50
Maqtaaral
1.50
Khan Tengri
1.67
SD Family
1.75
Kaspiy
2.00
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Yassy Turkistan
2.00
FK Aksu
2.50
Kaisar
3.00
Kyran
3.00
Taraz is 0.75 goals better than Ekibastuz in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Taraz or Draw✓ Hit
67.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
32%
covers Taraz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz or Ekibastuz✓ Hit
69.6%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
32%
covers Taraz + Ekibastuz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ekibastuz✗ Miss
62.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
30%
32%
covers Draw + Ekibastuz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Taraz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Taraz, so a minus line means Taraz give that many goals of a start and Ekibastuz receive them. At -1, Taraz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Taraz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Taraz)Actual: Ekibastuz
Taraz -2
5.7%
Draw -2
11.1%
Ekibastuz +2
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Taraz)Actual: Draw
Taraz -1
16.8%
Draw -1
20.4%
Ekibastuz +1
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Taraz)Actual: Taraz
Taraz +1
67.7%
Draw +1
18.7%
Ekibastuz -1
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Taraz)Actual: Taraz
Taraz +2
86.3%
Draw +2
9.4%
Ekibastuz -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Taraz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.62
0.69
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.64
0.62
0.54
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.17
1.27
0.73
0.40
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.08
1.31
0.77
0.31
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Taraz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.33
1.38
1.31
0.86
1.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.12
1.48
1.23
1.46
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
1.00
1.13
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
1.04
1.08
1.08
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →