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Taraz vs Ekibastuz Result & Analysis

Date: 22/05/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
Taraz
Taraz
Vs
44%
25%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Taraz’s recent win over Tobol and Ekibastuz’s recovery from two straight defeats set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 44% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of an away victory, favouring a Taraz triumph. The expected total of 3.3 goals signals plenty of action, with the most likely total goal count being three at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% chance. Taraz, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages two goals scored and 1.43 conceded, while Ekibastuz, away, averages 1.31 scored and 1.92 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 with an 84.9% probability. The home win probability is 44%, the draw probability 25%, and the away win probability 31%. Each figure is presented once, with no repetition, and the analysis remains concise and neutral.

Results analysis

Taraz’s recent win extends their good run, while Ekibastuz, fresh from a 4-point haul, looked poised for a home upset. The model’s favourite, a home win, came through with a 2-1 victory, matching the predicted outcome. The selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.9% chance, also hit, as the match produced three goals. The model’s predicted 3-goal total was close, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, but the 2-1 result kept the overall forecast accurate. The home side’s 44% probability of winning proved correct, confirming the model’s confidence in Taraz’s performance.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Taraz win✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz win✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

TarazTaraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W12L10W02L02L31W31W00D12LA·YAS18/03H·JAS22/03H·OKZ04/04A·SPO10/04H·ORD14/04A·YAS19/04H·ALT26/04H·AKZ02/05A·KHA10/05H·ULY16/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.731.811.561.211.93
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.502.50--
vs Similar (27)1.671.672.001.431.311.92
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D31W12L11D10W00D30W12L30W00DA·ARY24/10H·SPO31/10A·TAR12/03H·YAS15/03A·AKZ05/04A·KAI18/04H·AKT25/04A·ULY03/05A·YAS09/05H·ALT16/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.832.001.501.192.12
vs Stronger (2)0.005.500.004.000.007.00
vs Similar (24)1.621.752.001.551.311.92
vs Weaker (4)2.000.503.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.7%
Under 2.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.6%
Under 3.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1 ✓
9.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.0%
1-0
5.7%
3-1
5.4%
0-0
4.8%
Taraz goals ↓
Ekibastuz goals →
01234
04.8%4.6%4.2%2.1%0.8%
15.7%11%7.5%3.7%1.4%
26.0%9.0%6.7%3.3%1.2%
33.6%5.4%4.0%2.0%0.7%
41.6%2.4%1.8%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Taraz goals (down), columns = Ekibastuz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Okzhetpes
2.28
Ulytau
2.17
Kaspiy
2.10
Sport Academy Kairat
2.07
Khan Tengri
1.96
Ekibastuz
1.82
Zhetisay
1.76
Taraz
1.46
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.36
SD Family
1.11
Akzhayik
0.86
Kaisar II
0.79
Yassy Turkistan
0.76
Arys
0.68
Kyran
0.43
Aktobe Jas
0.41
Taraz is 0.36 points worse than Ekibastuz in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.82).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sport Academy Kairat
2.66
Ulytau
2.41
Kaspiy
2.28
Okzhetpes
2.14
Khan Tengri
1.96
Ekibastuz
1.93
SD Family
1.89
Zhetisay
1.76
Taraz
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.11
Arys
1.00
Yassy Turkistan
0.97
Aktobe Jas
0.86
Akzhayik
0.86
Kaisar II
0.82
Kyran
0.57
Taraz is 0.61 goals worse than Ekibastuz in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.93).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Okzhetpes
0.55
Ulytau
1.00
Kaspiy
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.07
Taraz
1.21
Zhetisay
1.28
Ekibastuz
1.29
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.32
Sport Academy Kairat
1.52
Akzhayik
1.71
Kaisar II
2.00
Arys
2.29
SD Family
2.29
Yassy Turkistan
2.45
Kyran
2.57
Aktobe Jas
2.59
Taraz is 0.07 goals better than Ekibastuz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

TarazTaraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D12L10W02L01L11D00D00D01LA·YAS18/03H·JAS22/03H·OKZ04/04A·SPO10/04H·ORD14/04A·YAS19/04H·ALT26/04H·AKZ02/05A·KHA10/05H·ULY16/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.700.620.620.430.79
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (27)0.590.560.710.430.460.69
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W01L10W00D00D10W01L10W00DA·ARY24/10H·SPO31/10A·TAR12/03H·YAS15/03A·AKZ05/04A·KAI18/04H·AKT25/04A·ULY03/05A·YAS09/05H·ALT16/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.871.070.500.381.19
vs Stronger (2)0.002.500.001.000.004.00
vs Similar (24)0.670.791.090.550.311.00
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

TarazTaraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W00D00D00D01L20W31W00D11DA·YAS18/03H·JAS22/03H·OKZ04/04A·SPO10/04H·ORD14/04A·YAS19/04H·ALT26/04H·AKZ02/05A·KHA10/05H·ULY16/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.031.190.940.791.14
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.500.50--
vs Similar (27)1.071.111.291.000.851.23
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D11D01L10W00D20W11D20W00DA·ARY24/10H·SPO31/10A·TAR12/03H·YAS15/03A·AKZ05/04A·KAI18/04H·AKT25/04A·ULY03/05A·YAS09/05H·ALT16/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.970.931.000.810.94
vs Stronger (2)0.003.000.003.000.003.00
vs Similar (24)0.960.960.911.001.000.92
vs Weaker (4)0.750.001.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OKZ (23)
€5m
KAS (23)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OKZ (8)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
TAR wins
0
Draws
2
EKI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Taraz vs Ekibastuz · H/A from TAR
DateH/AGameScore
12/03/24HTAR Vs Ekibastuz2-1
10/08/23AEkibastuz Vs TAR5-3
05/05/23HTAR Vs Ekibastuz1-2

TarazTaraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/24HTAR Vs Ulytau1-2
10/05/24AKhan Tengri Vs TAR0-0
02/05/24HTAR Vs Akzhayik3-1
26/04/24HTAR Vs Altay (Kazakhstan)3-1
19/04/24AYassy Turkistan Vs TAR2-0
14/04/24HTAR Vs Ordabasy0-2
10/04/24ASport Academy Kairat Vs TAR0-1
04/04/24HTAR Vs Okzhetpes1-2
22/03/24HTAR Vs Jas Qyran1-0
18/03/24AYassy Turkistan Vs TAR0-3

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/24HEKI Vs Altay (Kazakhstan)0-0
09/05/24AYassy Turkistan Vs EKI0-3
03/05/24AUlytau Vs EKI2-1
25/04/24HEKI Vs Aktobe Jas3-0
18/04/24AKaisar II Vs EKI0-0
05/04/24AAkzhayik Vs EKI0-1
15/03/24HEKI Vs Yassy Turkistan1-1
12/03/24ATaraz Vs EKI2-1
31/10/23HEKI Vs Sport Academy Kairat3-1
24/10/23AArys Vs EKI1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Taraz
Taraz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDL1.10
HomeLLWWL1.25
AwayDWWLD0.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%23%
AVG goals3.103.392.73
Over 1.5 %78%86%68%
Over 2.5 %54%64%41%
Over 3.5 %38%39%36%
Scored1.421.681.09
Conceded1.681.711.64
BTTS54%71%32%
Clean Sheet16%11%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWD1.26
HomeWWDWD1.40
AwayLWDLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals3.603.523.68
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %72%72%72%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored1.661.881.44
Conceded1.941.642.24
BTTS66%64%68%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OkzhetpesOkzhetpes2966
72%
2.3
6216+46
2.7
69%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2112.10.6
-
2UlytauUlytau2963
69%
2.2
7029+41
3.4
90%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.41.0
-
3KaspiyKaspiy2961
66%
2.1
6629+37
3.3
83%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1212.31.0
-
4Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat2960
66%
2.1
7744+33
4.2
83%
72%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
5Khan TengriKhan Tengri2855
61%
2.0
5530+25
3.0
68%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.1
-
6EkibastuzEkibastuz2851
57%
1.8
5436+18
3.2
89%
82%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
7ZhetisayZhetisay2951
52%
1.8
5137+14
3.0
76%
55%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
8TarazTaraz2841
43%
1.5
3734+3
2.5
75%
57%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
9Altay (Kazakhstan)Altay (Kazakhstan)2838
39%
1.4
3137-6
2.4
71%
54%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.3
-
10SD FamilySD Family2831
32%
1.1
5364-11
4.2
96%
89%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.3
-
11AkzhayikAkzhayik2824
25%
0.9
2448-24
2.6
75%
57%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
12Kaisar IIKaisar II2822
18%
0.8
2356-33
2.8
71%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
13Yassy TurkistanYassy Turkistan2922
17%
0.8
2871-43
3.4
97%
66%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
14ArysArys2819
18%
0.7
2864-36
3.3
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.3
-
15Aktobe JasAktobe Jas2912
10%
0.4
2575-50
3.4
90%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
16KyranKyran73
14%
0.4
418-14
3.1
57%
43%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.6
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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