Taraz’s recent win over Tobol and Ekibastuz’s recovery from two straight defeats set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 44% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of an away victory, favouring a Taraz triumph. The expected total of 3.3 goals signals plenty of action, with the most likely total goal count being three at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% chance. Taraz, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages two goals scored and 1.43 conceded, while Ekibastuz, away, averages 1.31 scored and 1.92 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 with an 84.9% probability. The home win probability is 44%, the draw probability 25%, and the away win probability 31%. Each figure is presented once, with no repetition, and the analysis remains concise and neutral.
Results analysis
Taraz’s recent win extends their good run, while Ekibastuz, fresh from a 4-point haul, looked poised for a home upset. The model’s favourite, a home win, came through with a 2-1 victory, matching the predicted outcome. The selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.9% chance, also hit, as the match produced three goals. The model’s predicted 3-goal total was close, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, but the 2-1 result kept the overall forecast accurate. The home side’s 44% probability of winning proved correct, confirming the model’s confidence in Taraz’s performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Taraz win✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz win✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Taraz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.73
1.81
1.56
1.21
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.50
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.43
1.31
1.92
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.83
2.00
1.50
1.19
2.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
5.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
7.00
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.75
2.00
1.55
1.31
1.92
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.7%
Under 2.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.6%
Under 3.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1 ✓
9.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.0%
1-0
5.7%
3-1
5.4%
0-0
4.8%
Taraz goals ↓
Ekibastuz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
4.6%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
1
5.7%
11%
7.5%
3.7%
1.4%
2
6.0%
9.0%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.6%
5.4%
4.0%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Taraz goals (down), columns = Ekibastuz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Okzhetpes
2.28
Ulytau
2.17
Kaspiy
2.10
Sport Academy Kairat
2.07
Khan Tengri
1.96
Ekibastuz
1.82
Zhetisay
1.76
Taraz
1.46
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.36
SD Family
1.11
Akzhayik
0.86
Kaisar II
0.79
Yassy Turkistan
0.76
Arys
0.68
Kyran
0.43
Aktobe Jas
0.41
Taraz is 0.36 points worse than Ekibastuz in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sport Academy Kairat
2.66
Ulytau
2.41
Kaspiy
2.28
Okzhetpes
2.14
Khan Tengri
1.96
Ekibastuz
1.93
SD Family
1.89
Zhetisay
1.76
Taraz
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.11
Arys
1.00
Yassy Turkistan
0.97
Aktobe Jas
0.86
Akzhayik
0.86
Kaisar II
0.82
Kyran
0.57
Taraz is 0.61 goals worse than Ekibastuz in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Okzhetpes
0.55
Ulytau
1.00
Kaspiy
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.07
Taraz
1.21
Zhetisay
1.28
Ekibastuz
1.29
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.32
Sport Academy Kairat
1.52
Akzhayik
1.71
Kaisar II
2.00
Arys
2.29
SD Family
2.29
Yassy Turkistan
2.45
Kyran
2.57
Aktobe Jas
2.59
Taraz is 0.07 goals better than Ekibastuz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Taraz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.62
0.62
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.56
0.71
0.43
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
1.07
0.50
0.38
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.79
1.09
0.55
0.31
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Taraz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.03
1.19
0.94
0.79
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.07
1.11
1.29
1.00
0.85
1.23
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
0.93
1.00
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.96
0.91
1.00
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →