Taraz’s recent 0-4 loss to Astana II has left the home side rattled, yet the Pythia model still sees a 66% chance of a Taraz win, making the home victory the clear favourite. The model’s confidence stems from Taraz’s strong home form: averaging 2.09 goals scored and only 0.55 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Khan Tengri struggles on the road, netting just 0.58 and conceding 2.58. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively encounter, with the most likely scoreline 2-1 for Taraz at 9.7%. The probabilities for the match result are 66% home win, 20% draw, and 14% away win. The model also suggests several selections: Away under 2.5 HT goals99%, Away under 3.5 goals98.1%, Under 7.598.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals97.9%, Home +2 handicap94.9%, Under 6.594.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals93.1%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals92.8%. Each pick carries its own probability, reflecting the overall expectation that Taraz will edge out a narrow win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Taraz win
65.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri win
14.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Taraz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.43
2.00
0.80
0.93
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.29
2.09
0.55
0.77
1.92
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
2.33
1.67
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
2.13
0.93
1.33
0.87
2.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
7.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.88
1.00
1.29
0.58
2.58
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
3.00
-
-
2.50
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.7%
1-1
9.3%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
7.5%
3-0
7.5%
2-2
4.9%
0-0
4.5%
Taraz goals ↓
Khan Tengri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
2.8%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
1
7.5%
9.3%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
2
9.7%
9.7%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.5%
7.5%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
4
4.3%
4.4%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Taraz goals (down), columns = Khan Tengri goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Taraz is 0.62 points better than Khan Tengri in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Taraz and Khan Tengri are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Taraz is 0.50 goals better than Khan Tengri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Taraz or Draw
85.9%
Avg Implied -
66%
20%
14%
covers Taraz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz or Khan Tengri
79.9%
Avg Implied -
66%
20%
14%
covers Taraz + Khan Tengri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Khan Tengri
34.2%
Avg Implied -
66%
20%
14%
covers Draw + Khan Tengri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Taraz over/under 0.5
Over
90.1%
Under
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5
Over
40.8%
Under
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 3.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Taraz, so a minus line means Taraz give that many goals of a start and Khan Tengri receive them. At -1, Taraz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Taraz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Taraz)
Taraz -2
24.2%
Draw -2
19.8%
Khan Tengri +2
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Taraz)
Taraz -1
44.0%
Draw -1
21.9%
Khan Tengri +1
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Taraz)
Taraz +1
85.9%
Draw +1
9.0%
Khan Tengri -1
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Taraz)
Taraz +2
94.9%
Draw +2
3.7%
Khan Tengri -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Taraz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.87
0.40
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.67
0.91
0.36
0.38
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.60
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.85
0.50
0.64
0.17
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.6%
Under 0.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.8%
Under 1.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.9%
Under 2.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Taraz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.13
0.40
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.62
1.18
0.18
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.33
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.27
0.47
0.73
0.47
1.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
1.04
0.50
0.64
0.42
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.7%
Under 0.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.6%
Under 1.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.1%
Under 2.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2