Taraz’s recent form shows a win on the back of a 3-1 victory over Tobol, while Shakhter Karagandy enter the match on a five-game winning streak, having edged Yelimay Semey 3-0. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.6% chance. Home victory is 37%, a draw 26%, and the favoured result is an away win at 38%. Taraz, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Shakhter, on the road, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.5% probability. These figures suggest the match will see both sides find the net, with Shakhter Karagandy holding the edge in the final outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Taraz turned a pre-match favourite into a surprise victor, finishing 4-0 to claim a home win. The model had tipped an away win with a 38% probability, but that call was wrong. The only suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 83.5% chance. Taraz, riding a win in their last five, extended that streak, while Shakhter Karagandy, on a five-game winning run, failed to convert their form into a result. The final score of 4-0 marked the most decisive home victory of the matchday, leaving the model’s prediction in the wrong direction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Taraz win✓ Hit
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Taraz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.40
1.47
1.00
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.44
1.55
1.00
1.00
1.79
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
1.67
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.70
1.50
1.43
1.12
1.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.92
0.83
1.83
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.59
1.59
1.86
1.14
1.40
1.90
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.3%
Under 2.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.0%
Under 3.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
5.7%
1-0
5.6%
0-2
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
Taraz goals ↓
Shakhter Karagandy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.7%
5.4%
2.9%
1.1%
1
5.6%
12%
8.4%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.3%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.7%
4.3%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Taraz goals (down), columns = Shakhter Karagandy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kaspiy
2.62
Irtysh
2.35
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.08
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Zhetisay
1.62
Sport Academy Kairat
1.54
Akademiya Ontustik
1.50
Taraz
1.35
AKAS
1.27
Ekibastuz
1.08
SD Family
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.69
Aktobe Jas
0.52
Yassy Turkistan
0.39
Taraz is 0.65 points worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kaspiy
2.85
Irtysh
2.73
Shakhter Karagandy
2.32
Sport Academy Kairat
2.23
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.04
Zhetisay
1.69
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Taraz
1.65
AKAS
1.62
Ekibastuz
1.38
SD Family
1.27
Aktobe Jas
1.24
Khan Tengri
1.04
Yassy Turkistan
0.70
Taraz is 0.67 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 2.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Irtysh
0.77
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.92
Kaspiy
1.04
Zhetisay
1.35
Shakhter Karagandy
1.36
Taraz
1.46
AKAS
1.50
Sport Academy Kairat
1.62
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Khan Tengri
2.12
Ekibastuz
2.31
Aktobe Jas
2.60
SD Family
2.88
Yassy Turkistan
3.09
Taraz is 0.10 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Taraz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.67
0.40
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.64
0.82
0.45
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.57
0.71
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.83
0.17
0.83
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.88
0.86
0.71
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Taraz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.80
0.60
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.80
0.73
0.55
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.93
0.71
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.08
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.71
1.00
0.43
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kaspiy
Irtysh
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetisay
Sport Academy Kairat
Akademiya Ontustik
AKAS
Ekibastuz
SD Family
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yassy Turkistan